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Races · Governor · 2022 · Oklahoma
Governor · open seat

Joy Hofmeister vs Kevin Stitt

← Ohio GovernorOregon Governor →
Safe RR +18.6 forecast· 27 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Hofmeister (D)
99% Stitt (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +18.6 · 80% CI R+30.6 → R+6.6
Actual result R+13.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+20) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+30.6 (10th pctile) to R+6.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.6
80% CI: R +30.6 → R +6.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used27
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+13.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

0510152025303540455055STITT 47.9HOFMEISTER 41.3YEN 2.7BRUNO 1.7JAN '22JUN '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 27 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 5, 22Ascend Action+1682 · LVD-LEAND +13.27 tracked+10.6d lean46 · 49
Nov 2, 22Tomahawk Strategies729 · LVR-LEAN——45 · 42
Nov 1, 22Tomahawk Strategies729 · unknownR-LEAN——45 · 42
Oct 31, 22Blueprint Polling557 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.4d lean40 · 48
Oct 30, 22WPA Intelligence500 · LVR-LEAN—-1.2aligned39 · 52
Oct 29, 22WPA Intelligence500 · unknownR-LEAN—-1.2aligned39 · 52
Oct 28, 22Blueprint Polling557 · unknownNEUTRAL—+2.4d lean40 · 48
Oct 27, 22Amber Integrated+1For · AMBER INTEGRATED501 · LVD-LEAND +7.87 tracked+8.8d lean44 · 45
Oct 27, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned40 · 49
Oct 27, 22Ascend Action+1749 · LVD-LEAND +13.27 tracked+10.6d lean48 · 45
Oct 27, 22SoonerPoll+3For · News9.com324 · LVNEUTRALD +11.34 tracked+10.1d lean48 · 45
Oct 25, 22SoonerPoll.com324 · unknownNEUTRAL——48 · 45
Oct 14, 22Amber Integrated+1For · AMBER INTEGRATED500 · LVD-LEAND +7.87 tracked+8.8d lean46 · 45
Oct 11, 22Ascend Action+1638 · LVD-LEAND +13.27 tracked+10.6d lean49 · 42
Oct 5, 22SoonerPoll+4For · The exclusive News 9301 · LVNEUTRALD +11.34 tracked+10.1d lean47 · 43
Sep 27, 22American Viewpoint500 · LVR-LEAN——33 · 48
Sep 26, 22American Viewpoint500 · unknownR-LEAN——33 · 48
Sep 20, 22Amber Integrated+1500 · LVD-LEAND +7.87 tracked+8.8d lean44 · 47
Sep 6, 22SoonerPoll+2For · News9 and Newson6402 · LVNEUTRALD +11.34 tracked+10.1d lean43 · 44
Sep 6, 22Echelon Insights+1522 · RVNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy36 · 55
Jul 25, 22Change Research+2For · Change Research2,079 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy34 · 42
Jun 8, 22Amber Integrated+1795 · LVD-LEAND +7.87 tracked+8.8d lean29 · 47
Mar 26, 22Amber Integrated+1500 · LVD-LEAND +7.87 tracked+8.8d lean30 · 44
Jan 20, 22Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates500 · RVR-LEAN——27 · 49
Jan 9, 22Change Research+1For · Change Research881 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy32 · 58
Dec 18, 21Amber Integrated+1500 · RVD-LEAND +7.87 tracked+8.8d lean32 · 47
Oct 13, 21Amber Integrated+1500 · RVD-LEAND +7.87 tracked+8.8d lean33 · 49
· 27 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 75 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
Stitt · 100%75
RKevin Stitt75 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Other68
Elected officials5
Federal 2State 3Local 0
Organizations2
DJoy Hofmeister0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LNatalie Bruno0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IErvin Yen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R4
Safe R1
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Sep 28
Elections Daily
Safe R
Nov 6
538
Likely R
Oct 16
Inside Elections
Likely R
Oct 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Oct 11

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified22 / 27deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements75 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks