| 11/6/2022 | Ascend Action | 0.30 | L(D+13.2) | 682 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.30🟡1281d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.30 Aggregation weight is 0.30 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+10.6pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 49.0 · Joy Hofmeister 46.0 · Natalie Bruno 1.0 · Ervin Yen 1.0 | pollarch |
| 11/3/2022 | Tomahawk Strategies | 1.00 | R | 729 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1284d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1284d old Poll was fielded 1284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 42.0 · Joy Hofmeister 45.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2022 | Blueprint Polling | 1.00 | L | 557 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1286d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 48.0 · Joy Hofmeister 40.0 · Natalie Bruno 2.0 · Ervin Yen 4.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2022 | WPA Intelligence | 1.00 | R | 500 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1287d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 52.0 · Joy Hofmeister 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2022 | Amber Integrated | 0.43 | L(D+7.8) | 501 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.43🟡1290d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.43 Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.8pt vs editors Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 45.0 · Joy Hofmeister 44.0 · Natalie Bruno 2.0 · Ervin Yen 4.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡1290d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Kevin Stitt 49.0 · Joy Hofmeister 40.0 · Natalie Bruno 1.0 · Ervin Yen 2.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2022 | Ascend Action | 0.30 | L(D+13.2) | 749 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.30🟡1290d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.30 Aggregation weight is 0.30 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+10.6pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 45.0 · Joy Hofmeister 48.0 · Natalie Bruno 1.0 · Ervin Yen 1.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2022 | SoonerPoll | 0.36 | —(D+11.3) | 324 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.36🟡4 scored polls+5- 🟠
weight 0.36 Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
n=324 Sample size of 324 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.4pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+10.1pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 45.0 · Joy Hofmeister 48.0 · Natalie Bruno 2.0 · Ervin Yen 3.0 | pollarch |
| 10/15/2022 | Amber Integrated | 0.43 | L(D+7.8) | 500 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.43🟡1303d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.43 Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1303d old Poll was fielded 1303 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.8pt vs editors Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 45.0 · Joy Hofmeister 46.0 · Natalie Bruno 1.0 · Ervin Yen 3.0 | pollarch |
| 10/12/2022 | Ascend Action | 0.30 | L(D+13.2) | 638 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.30🟡1306d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.30 Aggregation weight is 0.30 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1306d old Poll was fielded 1306 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+10.6pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 42.0 · Joy Hofmeister 49.0 · Natalie Bruno 0.0 · Ervin Yen 0.0 | pollarch |
| 10/6/2022 | SoonerPoll | 0.36 | —(D+11.3) | 301 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.36🟡4 scored polls+6- 🟠
weight 0.36 Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
n=301 Sample size of 301 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.6pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
1312d old Poll was fielded 1312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+10.1pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: The exclusive News 9 Commissioned by The exclusive News 9, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Kevin Stitt 43.0 · Joy Hofmeister 47.0 · Natalie Bruno 2.0 · Ervin Yen 1.0 | pollarch |
| 9/28/2022 | American Viewpoint | 1.00 | R | 500 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1320d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1320d old Poll was fielded 1320 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 48.0 · Joy Hofmeister 33.0 · Natalie Bruno 9.0 · Ervin Yen 8.0 | pollarch |
| 9/21/2022 | Amber Integrated | 0.43 | L(D+7.8) | 500 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.43🟡1327d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.43 Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1327d old Poll was fielded 1327 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.8pt vs editors Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 47.0 · Joy Hofmeister 44.0 · Natalie Bruno 2.0 · Ervin Yen 1.0 | pollarch |
| 9/7/2022 | SoonerPoll | 0.36 | —(D+11.3) | 402 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.36🟡4 scored polls+4- 🟠
weight 0.36 Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+10.1pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 44.0 · Joy Hofmeister 43.0 · Natalie Bruno 3.0 · Ervin Yen 4.0 | pollarch |
| 9/7/2022 | Echelon Insights | 1.00 | —(R+1.0) | 522 | — | RV | 🟡1341d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kevin Stitt 55.0 · Joy Hofmeister 36.0 | pollarch |
| 7/26/2022 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 2079 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡1384d old+4- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1384d old Poll was fielded 1384 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=2,079 Sample size of 2,079 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Kevin Stitt 42.0 · Joy Hofmeister 34.0 · Natalie Bruno 6.0 · Ervin Yen 4.0 | pollarch |
| 6/9/2022 | Amber Integrated | 0.43 | L(D+7.8) | 795 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.43🟡1431d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.43 Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1431d old Poll was fielded 1431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.8pt vs editors Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 47.0 · Joy Hofmeister 29.0 · Natalie Bruno 2.0 · Ervin Yen 5.0 | pollarch |
| 3/27/2022 | Amber Integrated | 0.43 | L(D+7.8) | 500 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.43🟡1505d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.43 Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1505d old Poll was fielded 1505 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.8pt vs editors Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 44.0 · Joy Hofmeister 30.0 · Natalie Bruno 3.0 · Ervin Yen 4.0 | pollarch |
| 1/21/2022 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 1.00 | R | 500 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1570d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1570d old Poll was fielded 1570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kevin Stitt 49.0 · Joy Hofmeister 27.0 · Natalie Bruno 3.0 · Ervin Yen 5.0 | pollarch |
| 1/10/2022 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 881 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡1581d old+3- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1581d old Poll was fielded 1581 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Stitt 58.0 · Joy Hofmeister 32.0 | pollarch |
| 12/19/2021 | Amber Integrated | 0.43 | L(D+7.8) | 500 | — | RV | 🟠weight 0.43🟡1603d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.43 Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1603d old Poll was fielded 1603 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.8pt vs editors Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kevin Stitt 47.0 · Joy Hofmeister 32.0 | pollarch |
| 10/14/2021 | Amber Integrated | 0.43 | L(D+7.8) | 500 | — | RV | 🟠weight 0.43🟡1669d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.43 Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1669d old Poll was fielded 1669 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.8pt vs editors Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kevin Stitt 49.0 · Joy Hofmeister 33.0 | pollarch |