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Races · Governor · 2022 · Ohio
Governor · open seat

Nan Whaley vs Mike DeWine

← New York GovernorOklahoma Governor →
Safe RR +27.6 forecast· 41 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Whaley (D)
99% DeWine (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +27.6 · 80% CI R+39.6 → R+15.6
Actual result Mike DeWineJon Husted +25.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.6 (10th pctile) to R+15.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.6
80% CI: R +39.6 → R +15.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used41
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultMike DeWineJon Husted +25.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

20253035404550556065DEWINE 57.0WHALEY 35.6AUG '21MAR '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 41 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 6, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs716 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean39 · 53
Nov 5, 22Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned37 · 57
Nov 5, 22Targoz Market ResearchFor · PollSmart MR505 · LVNEUTRALR +1.712 tracked+4.3noisy32 · 62
Nov 4, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,123 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean34 · 59
Nov 4, 22Data for Progress+11,413 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned38 · 62
Nov 2, 22Cygnal1,498 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned37 · 56
Nov 1, 22Remington Research Group+11,125 · LVNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned35 · 58
Oct 31, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned34 · 55
Oct 31, 22Cygnal+11,520 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned36 · 56
Oct 29, 22Cygnal+11,510 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned36 · 56
Oct 27, 22Cygnal+11,776 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned35 · 56
Oct 25, 22Cygnal+11,817 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned35 · 56
Oct 23, 22Cygnal+11,886 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned37 · 55
Oct 22, 22Baldwin Wallace University+2For · Baldwin Wallace University1,068 · LVNEUTRALD +8.54 tracked+5.3d lean40 · 57
Oct 21, 22Cygnal+11,547 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned37 · 55
Oct 19, 22Marist College+1For · Marist College1,141 · RVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned40 · 53
Oct 19, 22Cygnal+11,540 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned37 · 55
Oct 18, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College644 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned34 · 58
Oct 17, 22Cygnal1,438 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned35 · 56
Oct 14, 22Ohio Northern University/Lucid668 · LVNEUTRAL——29 · 60
Oct 14, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned38 · 56
Oct 11, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,081 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean37 · 55
Oct 11, 22Data for Progress+11,016 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned38 · 57
Oct 7, 22Cygnal640 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned35 · 57
Oct 6, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned36 · 50
Sep 30, 22Center Street PAC538 · unknownD-LEAN——38 · 52
Sep 21, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College642 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned32 · 55
Sep 20, 22ActiVote+1248 · unknownD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned42 · 58
Sep 14, 22Baldwin Wallace University+2For · Baldwin Wallace University855 · LVNEUTRALD +8.54 tracked+5.3d lean39 · 57
Sep 14, 22Marist College+1For · Marist College1,200 · RVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned37 · 55
Sep 12, 22Emerson College+2For · Emerson College Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned33 · 50
Sep 12, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs780 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean41 · 44
Sep 10, 22Fallon Research500 · RVNEUTRAL——37 · 49
Sep 6, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned39 · 54
Sep 6, 22Echelon Insights+1831 · LVNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy35 · 54
Sep 1, 22Survey Monkey987 · RVD-LEAN——31 · 52
Aug 18, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,087 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean38 · 54
Aug 15, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling925 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned33 · 49
Aug 8, 22Lake Research Partners+1600 · LVNEUTRAL—+17.7noisy43 · 44
May 23, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned30 · 45
Aug 23, 21Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,200 · RVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned25 · 44
· 41 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 35 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
DeWine · 100%35
RMike DeWine35 endorsers
Most notable · Chuck Calvert · former chair of the Medina County Republican Party and former state representative from the 69th district (1999–2006)
Elected officials12
Federal 0State 7Local 5
Other12
Organizations11
DNan Whaley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Sep 28
Elections Daily
Safe R
Nov 6
538
Safe R
Jul 30
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jul 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified38 / 41deterministic
Polls flagged1needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements35 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks