Races · Governor · 2022 · MD
Governor · open seat

Wes Moore vs Dan Cox

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Likely D — · 3 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1295d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 3 results

3 of 3 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/23/2022OpinionWorks1.00—982—LV
no scored polls1295d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1295d old
    Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Baltimore Sun
    Commissioned by Baltimore Sun, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Dan Cox 27.0 · Wes Moore 58.0pollarch
9/27/2022University of Maryland1.00—810—RV
no scored polls1321d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1321d old
    Poll was fielded 1321 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Dan Cox 28.0 · Wes Moore 60.0pollarch
9/12/2022Goucher College1.00—748—LV
no scored polls1336d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1336d old
    Poll was fielded 1336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Dan Cox 31.0 · Wes Moore 53.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 168 total
Dan Cox (R)
37 endorsements · source
Elected officials (8)
  • Andy Harris — U.S. representative for Maryland's 1st congressional district (2011–present) [ 38 ]
  • Boyd Rutherford — 9th lieutenant governor of Maryland (2015–2023) [ 31 ]
  • Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) [ 7 ] [ 37 ]
  • Doug Mastriano — Pennsylvania state senator for the 33rd district (2019–present) [ 39 ] [ 29 ]
  • Johnny Ray Salling — state senator for the 6th district (2015–present) and nominee for Maryland's 2nd congressional district in 2020 [ 51 ]
  • Larry Hogan — 62nd governor of Maryland (2015–2023) [ 43 ] [ 44 ]
  • Michael Hough — state senator for the 4th district (2015–present) [ 50 ]
  • Wendy Rogers — Arizona state senator for the 6th district (2021–2023) [ 29 ]
Newspapers (2)
  • The Baltimore Sun — ( Republican primary only ) [ 47 ]
  • The Washington Post — ( Republican primary only ) [ 48 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
  • Maryland Realtors PAC — ( co-endorsement with Moore ) [ 46 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • Michael Flynn — former U.S. National Security advisor (2017), former director of the DIA (2012–2014), and retired U.S. Army lieutenant general ( Democratic ) [ 36 ]
Other (25)
  • 30 — 40%
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • 90 — 100%
  • Allan Kittleman — former Howard County executive (2014–2018) [ 27 ]
  • Dan Cox
  • Fraternal Order of Police — Lodge 35 [ 45 ]
  • Gordana Schifanelli
  • Jeff Woolford
  • Joe Werner
  • Kelly Schulz
  • Kimberly Klacik — community activist [ 29 ]
  • Lauren Arikan — state delegate for the 7th district (2019–present) [ 49 ]
  • LeRoy F. Yegge Jr.
  • Log Cabin Republicans — of Maryland [ 45 ]
  • Maryland Right to Life — [ 42 ]
  • Minh Thanh Luong
  • Pat McDonough — former state delegate for the 7th district (2003–2019) [ 40 ]
  • Richard W. Metzgar — state delegate for the 6th district (2015–present) [ 41 ]
  • Robin Ficker
  • state delegates — tes , including minority leader Jason Buckel [ 45 ]
  • state senators — ors , including minority leader Bryan Simonaire [ 45 ]
Wes Moore (D)
131 endorsements · source
Elected officials (32)
  • Adrienne Jones — ates, including speaker Adrienne Jones [ 153 ] [ 45 ] [ 165 ] [ 166 ] [ 167 ]
  • Albert Wynn — former U.S. representative for MD-04 (1993–2008) [ 45 ]
  • Alex Padilla — U.S. senator from California (2021–present) [ 179 ]
  • Art Helton — former state senator for the 6th district (1975–1983) [ 151 ]
  • Ben Cardin — U.S. senator from Maryland (2007–present) [ 201 ]
  • Ben Jealous — president of People for the American Way (2020–present) [ 171 ]
  • Ben Ray Luján — U.S. senator from New Mexico (2021–present) [ 45 ]
  • Benjamin Kramer — state senator for the 19th district (2019–present) [ 45 ]
  • Bernard "Jack" Young — former mayor of Baltimore (2019–2020) [ 45 ]
  • Brandon Scott — mayor of Baltimore (2020–present) [ 202 ]
  • Chris Murphy — U.S. senator from Connecticut (2013–present) [ 153 ]
  • Chris Van Hollen — U.S. senator from Maryland (2017–present) [ 201 ]
  • Cory McCray — state senator for the 45th district (2019–present) [ 182 ]
  • Dutch Ruppersberger — U.S. representative for MD-02 (2003–present) [ 160 ]
  • Ed Markey — U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2013–present) [ 144 ]
  • Gloria Lawlah — former Maryland secretary of Aging (2007–2015) [ 145 ]
  • Jacob Day — mayor of Salisbury (2015–present) [ 145 ]
  • Joanne Benson — state senator for the 24th district (2011–present) [ 181 ]
  • Jolene Ivey — Prince George's County councilperson (2018–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014 [ 200 ]
  • Keith Ellison — attorney general of Minnesota (2019–present) [ 180 ]
  • Kweisi Mfume — U.S. representative for MD-07 (2020–present) [ 136 ]
  • Maryland secretary of General Services — y of General Services (1999–2003) [ 161 ]
  • Maryland secretary of state — d secretary of state (1995–2003) [ 161 ]
  • Melvin Steinberg — former lieutenant governor of Maryland (1987–1995) [ 145 ]
  • Michael Barnes — former U.S. representative for MD-08 (1979–1987) [ 45 ]
  • Nancy Pelosi — speaker of the House (2019–present) from CA-12 (1987–present) [ 180 ]
  • Parris Glendening — 59th governor of Maryland (1995–2003) [ 161 ]
  • Ronald Young — state senator for the 3rd district (2011–present) [ 152 ]
  • Roy Dyson — former U.S. representative for MD-01 (1981–1991) [ 145 ]
  • Victoria Jackson-Stanley — former mayor of Cambridge (2008–2021) [ 145 ]
  • Wayne Gilchrest — former U.S. representative for MD-01 (1991–2009) [ 145 ]
  • state senators — ors , including senate president Bill Ferguson [ 162 ] [ 45 ] [ 136 ] [ 163 ] [ 153 ] [ 158 ] [ 146 ] [ 164 ]
Newspapers (2)
  • The Baltimore Sun — ( Democratic primary only ) [ 47 ]
  • The Washington Post — ( Democratic primary only ) [ 199 ]
Organizations / unions (20)
  • AFL–CIO — d State and District of Columbia AFL–CIO [ 192 ]
  • Amalgamated Transit Union — [ f ] [ 188 ]
  • American Federation of Teachers — Maryland [ 189 ]
  • Communications Workers of America — ca locals [ g ] [ 190 ]
  • Congressional Hispanic Caucus — [ 179 ]
  • International Association of Fire Fighters — Local 964 [ 45 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers — rs locals [ h ] [ 191 ] [ 190 ]
  • International Longshoremen's Association — Local 333 [ 45 ]
  • International Union of Operating Engineers — Local 77 [ 45 ]
  • Kathleen Matthews — former chair of the Maryland Democratic Party (2017–2018) [ 186 ]
  • Laborers' Union — Mid-Atlantic Region and 7 locals [ d ] [ 45 ] [ 148 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — on Voters [ 174 ]
  • Maryland Realtors PAC — ( co-endorsement with Schulz ) [ 46 ]
  • Maryland State Education Association — [ 175 ]
  • National Iranian American Action Council PAC — [ 45 ]
  • National Organization for Women — for Women PAC [ 155 ]
  • Service Employees International Union — on locals [ i ] [ 45 ] [ 193 ]
  • Susan Turnbull — former chair of the Maryland Democratic Party (2009–2011) [ 170 ]
  • Teamsters — Joint Council 55, IBT [ 45 ]
  • United Association — [ 194 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • Oprah Winfrey — TV host ( Independent ) [ 172 ]
Other (76)
  • 20 — 30%
  • 30 — 40%
  • 314 Action — [ 173 ]
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • 90 — 100%
  • >90%
  • AFSCME — ME councils [ e ] [ 187 ] [ 45 ]
  • Aisha Braveboy — Prince George's County state attorney (2018–present) [ 151 ]
  • Alice Cain — former state delegate for district 30A (2019–2020) [ 154 ]
  • Andrew Friedson — Montgomery County councilperson (2018–present) [ 145 ]
  • Angela Alsobrooks — Prince George's County executive (2018–present) [ 129 ]
  • Aruna Miller
  • Ashwani Jain
  • Baltimore Afro-American — ( Democratic primary only ) [ 177 ]
  • Bikemore — [ 195 ]
  • Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers — Local 1 [ 190 ]
  • CASA in Action — [ 196 ]
  • Candace Hollingsworth
  • Carl Stokes — former Baltimore city councilor (2010–2016) [ 145 ]
  • Don Mohler — former Baltimore County executive (2018) [ 169 ]
  • Doug Duncan — former Montgomery County executive (1994–2006) [ 146 ]
  • Doug Gansler
  • El Tiempo Latino — ( Democratic primary only ) [ 198 ]
  • Evan Glass — Montgomery County councilor (2018–present) [ 45 ]
  • Fraternal Order of Police — l Order of Police Lodge #4 [ 45 ]
  • Gabe Albornoz — Montgomery County councilor (2018–present) [ 182 ]
  • Glenn Ivey — former Prince George's County state's attorney (2002–2011) [ 45 ]
  • Ike Leggett — former Montgomery County executive (2006–2018) [ 182 ]
  • Ironworkers — Local 5 [ 45 ]
  • James T. Smith Jr. — former Baltimore County executive (2002–2010) [ 169 ]
  • Jerome Segal
  • Jimmy Tarlau — Mount Rainier city councilor (2021–present) [ 45 ]
  • John King Jr.
  • Johnny Olszewski — Baltimore County executive (2018–present) [ 185 ]
  • Jon Baron
  • Jon Cardin — state delegate for the 11th district (2019–present) [ 150 ]
  • Justinian M. Dispenza
  • LaTrece Hawkins Lytes
  • Latin Opinion — ( Democratic primary only ) [ 178 ]
  • Latino Victory Fund — [ 197 ]
  • Lorig Charkoudian — state delegate for the 20th district (2019–present) [ 93 ]
  • Marc Elrich — Montgomery County executive (2018–present) [ 184 ]
  • Mark Greben
  • Mary Pat Clarke — former Baltimore city councilor (2003–2020) [ 183 ]
  • Michelle Siri
  • Monique Anderson — Walker
  • Nancy Floreen — former Montgomery County councilor (2002–2018) ( Independent ) [ 184 ]
  • Nancy King — enators, including majority leader Nancy King [ 145 ] [ 45 ]
  • Nancy Navarro — (withdrawn)
  • Natalie Williams
  • Odette Ramos — Baltimore city councilor (2020–present) [ 166 ]
  • Our Revolution — Maryland [ 156 ]
  • Peter Franchot
  • Ralph Jaffe
  • Robert L. Swann — former comptroller of Maryland (1998–1999) [ 145 ]
  • Rushern Baker — (withdrawn)
  • Shannon Sneed
  • Sierra Club — Maryland [ 157 ]
  • Steny Hoyer — House majority leader (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from MD-05 (1981–present) [ 159 ]
  • Steuart Pittman — Anne Arundel County executive (2018–present) [ 166 ]
  • Sunrise Movement — Maryland [ 158 ]
  • Talmadge Branch — state delegate for the 45th district (1995–present) ( switched endorsement to Moore after Baker withdrew ) [ 45 ]
  • Tom Perez
  • UFCW — CW locals [ j ] [ 190 ]
  • UNITE HERE — Locals 7 and 23 [ 45 ]
  • VoteVets.org — [ 176 ]
  • Wes Moore
  • Will Jawando — Montgomery County councilor (2018–present) [ 168 ]
  • [ 145 ] — e delegates [ 145 ] [ 146 ] [ 45 ] [ 147 ]
  • [ 179 ] — U.S. representatives [ 179 ]
  • [ 45 ] — te delegates [ 45 ] [ 182 ] [ 183 ]
  • attorneys general — s general [ 149 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Jul 26 — +18.0 —
Elections Daily Safe D Nov 7 — +18.0 —
538 Safe D Aug 10 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Jul 22 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Aug 18 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (10/23/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely D via pvi held 1317d
  • 9/24/2022 Safe D D+22.0 via polls held 75d
  • 7/11/2022 Likely D via pvi