Races · Governor · 2022 · Maryland
Governor · open seat
Wes Moore vs Dan Cox
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+30.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+18.6 (10th pctile) to D+42.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +30.6
80% CI: D +18.6 → D +42.6 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 5 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | Wes Moore Aruna Miller +32.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | OpinionWorks+1For · Baltimore Sun | 982 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 58 · 27 |
| Oct 21 | OpinionWorks | 989 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | 58 · 27 |
| Sep 26 | University of Maryland | 810 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 60 · 28 |
| Sep 23 | The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | 810 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | 60 · 28 |
| Sep 11 | Goucher College | 748 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 53 · 31 |
Endorsements · 149 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet119
30
Endorsements tracked
Wes Moore119 · 80%
Dan Cox30 · 20%
Total149
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DWes Moore119 endorsers
Most notable · Nancy King · enators, including majority leader Nancy King
Other64
Other · 64
- Nancy King · enators, including majority leader Nancy King
- Steny Hoyer · House majority leader (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from MD-05 (1981–present)
- 314 Action
- AFSCME · ME councils
- Aisha Braveboy · Prince George's County state attorney (2018–present)
- Alice Cain · former state delegate for district 30A (2019–2020)
- Andrew Friedson · Montgomery County councilperson (2018–present)
- Angela Alsobrooks · Prince George's County executive (2018–present)
- Aruna Miller
- Ashwani Jain
- Baltimore Afro-American · ( Democratic primary only )
- Bikemore
- Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers · Local 1
- CASA in Action
- Candace Hollingsworth
- Carl Stokes · former Baltimore city councilor (2010–2016)
- Don Mohler · former Baltimore County executive (2018)
- Doug Duncan · former Montgomery County executive (1994–2006)
- Doug Gansler
- El Tiempo Latino · ( Democratic primary only )
- Evan Glass · Montgomery County councilor (2018–present)
- Fraternal Order of Police · l Order of Police Lodge #4
- Gabe Albornoz · Montgomery County councilor (2018–present)
- Glenn Ivey · former Prince George's County state's attorney (2002–2011)
- Ike Leggett · former Montgomery County executive (2006–2018)
- Ironworkers · Local 5
- James T. Smith Jr. · former Baltimore County executive (2002–2010)
- Jerome Segal
- Jimmy Tarlau · Mount Rainier city councilor (2021–present)
- John King Jr.
- Johnny Olszewski · Baltimore County executive (2018–present)
- Jon Baron
- Jon Cardin · state delegate for the 11th district (2019–present)
- Justinian M. Dispenza
- LaTrece Hawkins Lytes
- Latin Opinion · ( Democratic primary only )
- Latino Victory Fund
- Lorig Charkoudian · state delegate for the 20th district (2019–present)
- Marc Elrich · Montgomery County executive (2018–present)
- Mark Greben
- Mary Pat Clarke · former Baltimore city councilor (2003–2020)
- Michelle Siri
- Monique Anderson · Walker
- Nancy Floreen · former Montgomery County councilor (2002–2018) ( Independent )
- Nancy Navarro · (withdrawn)
- Natalie Williams
- Odette Ramos · Baltimore city councilor (2020–present)
- Our Revolution · Maryland
- Peter Franchot
- Ralph Jaffe
- Robert L. Swann · former comptroller of Maryland (1998–1999)
- Rushern Baker · (withdrawn)
- Shannon Sneed
- Sierra Club · Maryland
- Steuart Pittman · Anne Arundel County executive (2018–present)
- Sunrise Movement · Maryland
- Talmadge Branch · state delegate for the 45th district (1995–present)
- Tom Perez
- UFCW · CW locals
- UNITE HERE · Locals 7 and 23
- VoteVets.org
- Wes Moore
- Will Jawando · Montgomery County councilor (2018–present)
- attorneys general · s general
Elected officials32
Federal 15State 10Local 4
Elected officials · 32
- Nancy Pelosi · speaker of the House (2019–present) from CA-12 (1987–present)
- Melvin Steinberg · former lieutenant governor of Maryland (1987–1995)
- Parris Glendening · 59th governor of Maryland (1995–2003)
- Alex Padilla · U.S. senator from California (2021–present)
- Ben Cardin · U.S. senator from Maryland (2007–present)
- Ben Ray Luján · U.S. senator from New Mexico (2021–present)
- Chris Murphy · U.S. senator from Connecticut (2013–present)
- Chris Van Hollen · U.S. senator from Maryland (2017–present)
- Ed Markey · U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Keith Ellison · attorney general of Minnesota (2019–present)
- Maryland secretary of state · d secretary of state (1995–2003)
- Art Helton · former state senator for the 6th district (1975–1983)
- Adrienne Jones · ates, including speaker Adrienne Jones
- Albert Wynn · former U.S. representative for MD-04 (1993–2008)
- Ben Jealous · president of People for the American Way (2020–present)
- Benjamin Kramer · state senator for the 19th district (2019–present)
- Bernard "Jack" Young · former mayor of Baltimore (2019–2020)
- Brandon Scott · mayor of Baltimore (2020–present)
- Cory McCray · state senator for the 45th district (2019–present)
- Dutch Ruppersberger · U.S. representative for MD-02 (2003–present)
- Gloria Lawlah · former Maryland secretary of Aging (2007–2015)
- Jacob Day · mayor of Salisbury (2015–present)
- Joanne Benson · state senator for the 24th district (2011–present)
- Jolene Ivey · Prince George's County councilperson (2018–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014
- Kweisi Mfume · U.S. representative for MD-07 (2020–present)
- Maryland secretary of General Services · y of General Services (1999–2003)
- Michael Barnes · former U.S. representative for MD-08 (1979–1987)
- Ronald Young · state senator for the 3rd district (2011–present)
- Roy Dyson · former U.S. representative for MD-01 (1981–1991)
- Victoria Jackson-Stanley · former mayor of Cambridge (2008–2021)
- Wayne Gilchrest · former U.S. representative for MD-01 (1991–2009)
- state senators · ors, including senate president Bill Ferguson
Organizations20
Organizations · 20
- Kathleen Matthews · former chair of the Maryland Democratic Party (2017–2018)
- Susan Turnbull · former chair of the Maryland Democratic Party (2009–2011)
- AFL–CIO · d State and District of Columbia AFL–CIO
- Amalgamated Transit Union
- American Federation of Teachers · Maryland
- Communications Workers of America · ca locals
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus
- International Association of Fire Fighters · Local 964
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · rs locals
- International Longshoremen's Association · Local 333
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 77
- Laborers' Union · Mid-Atlantic Region and 7 locals
- League of Conservation Voters · on Voters
- Maryland Realtors PAC
- Maryland State Education Association
- National Iranian American Action Council PAC
- National Organization for Women · for Women PAC
- Service Employees International Union · on locals
- Teamsters · Joint Council 55, IBT
- United Association
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- The Baltimore Sun · ( Democratic primary only )
- The Washington Post · ( Democratic primary only )
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Oprah Winfrey · TV host ( Independent )
RDan Cox30 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Other18
Other · 18
- state delegates · tes, including minority leader Jason Buckel
- state senators · ors, including minority leader Bryan Simonaire
- Allan Kittleman · former Howard County executive (2014–2018)
- Dan Cox
- Fraternal Order of Police · Lodge 35
- Gordana Schifanelli
- Jeff Woolford
- Joe Werner
- Kelly Schulz
- Kimberly Klacik · community activist
- Lauren Arikan · state delegate for the 7th district (2019–present)
- LeRoy F. Yegge Jr.
- Log Cabin Republicans · of Maryland
- Maryland Right to Life
- Minh Thanh Luong
- Pat McDonough · former state delegate for the 7th district (2003–2019)
- Richard W. Metzgar · state delegate for the 6th district (2015–present)
- Robin Ficker
Elected officials8
Federal 2State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 8
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Boyd Rutherford · 9th lieutenant governor of Maryland (2015–2023)
- Larry Hogan · 62nd governor of Maryland (2015–2023)
- Andy Harris · U.S. representative for Maryland's 1st congressional district (2011–present)
- Doug Mastriano · Pennsylvania state senator for the 33rd district (2019–present)
- Johnny Ray Salling · state senator for the 6th district (2015–present) and nominee for Maryland's 2nd congressional district in 2020
- Michael Hough · state senator for the 4th district (2015–present)
- Wendy Rogers · Arizona state senator for the 6th district (2021–2023)
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- The Baltimore Sun · ( Republican primary only )
- The Washington Post · ( Republican primary only )
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Michael Flynn · former U.S. National Security advisor (2017), former director of the DIA (2012–2014), and retired U.S. Army lieutenant general ( Democratic )
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Maryland Realtors PAC
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 25
- Elections Daily · Nov 6
- 538 · Aug 9
- Inside Elections · Jul 21
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Aug 17
The Cook Political Report
Safe DElections Daily
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements149 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks