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Races · Governor · 2022 · Massachusetts
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
Governor · open seat

Maura Healey vs Geoff Diehl

← Kansas GovernorMaryland Governor →
Safe DD +20.9 forecast· 27 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Healey (D)
1% Diehl (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +20.9 · 80% CI D+8.9 → D+33.0
Actual result Maura Healey Kim Driscoll +29.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.9 (10th pctile) to D+33.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.9
80% CI: D +8.9 → D +33.0 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used27
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultMaura Healey Kim Driscoll +29.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

15202530354045505560HEALEY 57.2DIEHL 31.0DOUGHTY 22.6CHANG-DÍAZ 52.0APR '22JUL '22OCT '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 27 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 25, 22UMass Amherst/YouGov700 · RVNEUTRAL——61 · 33
Oct 24, 22UMass Lowell/YouGovFor · UMass Lowell/YouGov1,000 · LVD-LEAND +3.46 tracked+3.0d lean59 · 32
Oct 22, 22YouGov700 · unknownD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean61 · 33
Oct 21, 22University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion1,000 · unknownNEUTRAL——59 · 32
Oct 15, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned56 · 33
Oct 14, 22Suffolk University500 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned56 · 33
Oct 13, 22MassINC Polling Group987 · LVNEUTRAL—-1.3aligned53 · 23
Oct 8, 22MassINC Polling Group987 · unknownNEUTRAL—-1.3aligned53 · 23
Sep 12, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · RVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned52 · 26
Sep 11, 22Suffolk University500 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned52 · 26
Sep 7, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling708 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned52 · 34
Jul 22, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University493 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned54 · 23
Jul 22, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University493 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned54 · 22
Jun 14, 22UMass Lowell1,000 · LVNEUTRAL—-2.8r lean61 · 30
Jun 14, 22UMass Lowell1,000 · LVNEUTRAL—-2.8r lean54 · 29
Jun 14, 22UMass Lowell1,000 · LVNEUTRAL—-2.8r lean50 · 30
Jun 14, 22UMass Lowell1,000 · LVNEUTRAL—-2.8r lean58 · 30
May 3, 22Emerson College+1848 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned59 · 31
May 3, 22Emerson College+1848 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 32
May 3, 22Emerson College+1848 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned41 · 33
May 3, 22Emerson College+1848 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned54 · 31
Apr 27, 22Suffolk University+1651 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned54 · 27
Apr 27, 22Suffolk University+1651 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned28 · 17
Apr 27, 22Suffolk University+1651 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 29
Apr 27, 22Suffolk University+1651 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned43 · 27
Apr 27, 22Suffolk University+1651 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned55 · 25
Nov 18, 21Change Research/Northwind Strategies789 · LVD-LEAN——26 · 21
· 27 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMaura Healey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGeoff Diehl0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RChris Doughty0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSonia Chang-Díaz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 19
Elections Daily
Safe D
Nov 6
538
Safe D
Jul 30
Inside Elections
Safe D
Sep 8
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified22 / 27deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks