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Races · Governor · 2022 · Kansas
Governor · open seat

Laura Kelly vs Derek Schmidt

← Illinois GovernorMassachusetts Governor →
Tilt RR +1.3 forecast· 8 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
42% Kelly (D)
58% Schmidt (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +1.3 · 80% CI R+13.3 → D+10.8
Actual result Laura KellyDavid Toland +2.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 58% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+1.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.2 (10th pctile) to D+10.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 58% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +1.3
80% CI: R +13.3 → D +10.8 · win prob 42%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used8
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultLaura KellyDavid Toland +2.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

0510152025303540455055KELLY 44.8SCHMIDT 42.0PYLE 5.2AUG '22SEP '22OCT '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 8 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 28, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 43
Oct 11, 22Jayhawk Consulting500 · LVD-LEAN——38 · 37
Sep 17, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 43
Sep 6, 22Echelon Insights+2392 · LVNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy53 · 41
Aug 9, 22Battleground Connect1,074 · LVR-LEAN——45 · 48
Apr 26, 22WPA Intelligence500 · LVR-LEAN—-1.2aligned43 · 47
Sep 14, 21Clarity Campaign Labs810 · LVD-LEAND +3.98 tracked+5.2decoupled47 · 44
Sep 8, 21Remington Research Group+1For · Kansas Reflector1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned40 · 44

Endorsements · 19 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
Schmidt · 100%19
RDerek Schmidt19 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials11
Federal 7State 3Local 0
Other6
Organizations2
DLaura Kelly0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IDennis Pyle0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D2
Tossup2
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Jul 25
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 6
538
Lean D
Sep 12
Inside Elections
Tossup
Jul 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tilt Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Tossupmodel
May 15, 2026Tilt Rmodel
May 11, 2026Tossupmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified8 / 8deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements19 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks