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Races · Governor · 2022 · Connecticut
Governor · open seat

Ned Lamont vs Bob Stefanowski

← Colorado GovernorFlorida Governor →
Safe DD +17.8 forecast· 16 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Lamont (D)
1% Stefanowski (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +17.8 · 80% CI D+5.8 → D+29.8
Actual result D+11.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.8 (10th pctile) to D+29.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +17.8
80% CI: D +5.8 → D +29.8 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used16
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+11.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

202530354045505560LAMONT 51.5LAMONT 50.6STEFANOWSKI 39.6STEFANOWSKI 38.3OCT '22OCT '22OCT '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 16 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 25, 22Long Island University+1For · Policy1,004 · ANEUTRALD +14.83 tracked—55 · 24
Oct 23, 22McLaughlin & Associates+1500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.04 tracked-6.3noisy49 · 43
Oct 22, 22Quinnipiac University+2For · Quinnipiac University1,879 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned56 · 41
Oct 22, 22McLaughlin & Associates500 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.04 tracked-6.3noisy—
Oct 20, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned52 · 41
Oct 17, 22SurveyUSA+1718 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned52 · 34
Oct 16, 22SurveyUSA718 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned—
Oct 12, 22Fabrizo, Lee & Associates1,200 · LVR-LEAN——46 · 40
Sep 20, 22Western New England University766 · RVNEUTRAL——51 · 38
Sep 18, 22Quinnipiac University+2For · Quinnipiac University1,911 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned57 · 40
Sep 8, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 38
May 22, 22Quinnipiac University+2For · Quinnipiac University1,660 · RVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned51 · 43
May 10, 22Emerson College+11,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 38
Apr 10, 22Sacred Heart University1,000 · ANEUTRAL——48 · 30
Oct 21, 21Public Policy Polling+1729 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy52 · 36
Oct 21, 21Public Policy Polling+1729 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy50
· 16 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DNed Lamont0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBob Stefanowski0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMEdward Lamont0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPRobert Stefanowski0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D4
Likely D1
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 27
Elections Daily
Safe D
Nov 6
538
Safe D
Sep 19
Inside Elections
Safe D
Mar 3
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jan 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified14 / 16deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks