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Races · Governor · 2022 · Colorado
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Governor · open seat

Jared Polis vs Heidi Ganahl

← California GovernorConnecticut Governor →
Safe DD +19.0 forecast· 25 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Polis (D)
1% Ganahl (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +19.0 · 80% CI D+7.0 → D+31.0
Actual result Jared PolisDianne Primavera +19.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.0 (10th pctile) to D+31.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.0
80% CI: D +7.0 → D +31.0 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used25
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultJared PolisDianne Primavera +19.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

30354045505560POLIS 53.4GANAHL 40.7LOPEZ 32.0JUN '22AUG '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 25 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 6, 22co/efficientFor · co/efficient856 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean54 · 43
Nov 4, 22Data for Progress+21,983 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned55 · 43
Oct 31, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,084 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean50 · 43
Oct 28, 22Emerson College+2For · The Emerson College Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned54 · 40
Oct 26, 22The Trafalgar Group1,174 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean50 · 42
Oct 25, 22Trafalgar Group1,174 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean50 · 42
Oct 18, 22CU Boulder/YouGov709 · LVNEUTRAL——57 · 41
Oct 17, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs600 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean55 · 40
Oct 10, 22Global Strategy Group800 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean52 · 34
Oct 5, 22Marist College+1For · Marist College1,127 · RVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned54 · 36
Oct 5, 22Data for Progress+11,005 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned56 · 39
Sep 25, 22Keating Research/Magellan Strategies+1For · The Denver Post1,060 · LVNEUTRAL——51 · 34
Sep 23, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,078 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean49 · 41
Sep 18, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned53 · 36
Aug 21, 22Remington Research Group+3For · The Fort Morgan Times1,503 · LVNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned49 · 42
Aug 18, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,087 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean47 · 42
Jun 7, 22Global Strategy Group400 · RVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean50 · 32
Jun 7, 22Global Strategy Group400 · RVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean52 · 32
Jun 7, 22Global Strategy Group800 · RVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean54
Feb 14, 22Global Strategy Group400 · RVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean53 · 37
Feb 14, 22Global Strategy Group400 · RVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean54
Jan 12, 22CygnalFor · Colorado Politics630 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned49
Oct 23, 21Global Strategy Group800 · RVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean52 · 35
Jun 22, 21Global Strategy Group800 · RVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean54 · 34
Jun 22, 21Global Strategy Group800 · RVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean49
· 25 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJared Polis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RHeidi Ganahl0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGreg Lopez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 28
Elections Daily
Safe D
Nov 6
538
Safe D
Jul 30
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jul 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Oct 11

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified24 / 25deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks