| 11/6/2022 | Research Co. | 1.01 | —(D+1.5) | 450 | — | LV | 🟡1281d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Gavin Newsom 56.0 · Brian Dahle 37.0 | pollarch |
| 11/2/2022 | USC | 1.00 | — | 802 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1285d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Gavin Newsom 62.0 · Brian Dahle 38.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2022 | UC Berkeley | 1.00 | — | 5972 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1287d old+4- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Los Angeles Times Commissioned by Los Angeles Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
n=5,972 Sample size of 5,972 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Gavin Newsom 58.0 · Brian Dahle 37.0 | pollarch |
| 10/27/2022 | ActiVote | 1.01 | L(D+3.9) | 200 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.9pt🟡n=200+4- 🟠
historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
n=200 Sample size of 200 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.9pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. Notes: field window 90d - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Gavin Newsom 61.0 · Brian Dahle 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/23/2022 | Public Policy Institute of California | 1.00 | — | 1060 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1295d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1295d old Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Gavin Newsom 55.0 · Brian Dahle 36.0 | pollarch |
| 10/10/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1013 | — | LV | 🟡1308d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1308d old Poll was fielded 1308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Gavin Newsom 57.0 · Brian Dahle 35.0 | pollarch |
| 9/27/2022 | UC Berkeley | 1.00 | — | 6939 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1321d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1321d old Poll was fielded 1321 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=6,939 Sample size of 6,939 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Gavin Newsom 53.0 · Brian Dahle 32.0 | pollarch |
| 9/11/2022 | Public Policy Institute of California | 1.00 | — | 1060 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1337d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1337d old Poll was fielded 1337 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Gavin Newsom 58.0 · Brian Dahle 31.0 | pollarch |
| 8/15/2022 | UC Berkeley | 1.00 | — | 9254 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1364d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1364d old Poll was fielded 1364 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
n=9,254 Sample size of 9,254 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Gavin Newsom 52.0 · Brian Dahle 25.0 | pollarch |
| 5/31/2022 | Berkeley IGS | 1.00 | — | 3438 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1440d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1440d old Poll was fielded 1440 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=3,438 Sample size of 3,438 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ronald Anderson 1.0 · Shawn Collins 3.0 · Brian Dahle 10.0 · Anthony Fanara 1.0 · Gavin Newsom 50.0 · Michael Shellenberger 5.0 | pollarch |
| 5/15/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 709 | — | LV | 🟡1456d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1456d old Poll was fielded 1456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ronald Anderson 7.0 · Shawn Collins 5.0 · Brian Dahle 7.0 · Anthony Fanara 5.0 · Gavin Newsom 40.0 · Michael Shellenberger 2.0 | pollarch |
| 9/6/2021 | Berkeley IGS | 1.00 | — | 9809 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1707d old+4- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1707d old Poll was fielded 1707 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Los Angeles Times Commissioned by Los Angeles Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
n=9,809 Sample size of 9,809 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Gavin Newsom 49.0 · Kevin Faulconer 27.0 | pollarch |
| 9/6/2021 | Berkeley IGS | 1.00 | — | 9809 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1707d old+4- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1707d old Poll was fielded 1707 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Los Angeles Times Commissioned by Los Angeles Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
n=9,809 Sample size of 9,809 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Gavin Newsom 51.0 · John Cox 26.0 | pollarch |
| 9/6/2021 | Berkeley IGS | 1.00 | — | 9809 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1707d old+4- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1707d old Poll was fielded 1707 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Los Angeles Times Commissioned by Los Angeles Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
n=9,809 Sample size of 9,809 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Gavin Newsom 52.0 · Larry Elder 30.0 | pollarch |
| 9/6/2021 | Berkeley IGS | 1.00 | — | 9809 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1707d old+4- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1707d old Poll was fielded 1707 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Los Angeles Times Commissioned by Los Angeles Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
n=9,809 Sample size of 9,809 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Gavin Newsom 50.0 · Kevin Kiley 25.0 | pollarch |