NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · Governor · 2022 · California
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:primary
Governor · open seat

Gavin Newsom vs Brian Dahle

← Arizona GovernorColorado Governor →
Safe DD +30.1 forecast· 14 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Newsom (D)
1% Dahle (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +30.1 · 80% CI D+18.1 → D+42.1
Actual result D+18.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+30.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+18.1 (10th pctile) to D+42.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +30.1
80% CI: D +18.1 → D +42.1 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used14
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+18.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

253035404550556065NEWSOM 57.2DAHLE 36.6AUG '22SEP '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 14 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 5Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned56 · 37
Nov 1USC802 · RVNEUTRAL——62 · 38
Oct 30UC Berkeley+2For · Los Angeles Times5,972 · LVNEUTRAL——58 · 37
Oct 27University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies5,972 · unknownNEUTRAL——58 · 37
Oct 26ActiVote+2For · ActiVote200 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned61 · 39
Oct 22Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaFor · Public Policy Institute of California1,060 · LVNEUTRAL——55 · 36
Oct 18YouGov860 · unknownD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean56 · 37
Oct 17Public Policy Institute of California1,111 · unknownNEUTRAL——55 · 36
Oct 9SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,013 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned57 · 35
Sep 26UC Berkeley+16,939 · LVNEUTRAL——53 · 32
Sep 23University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies6,939 · unknownNEUTRAL——53 · 32
Sep 11ActiVote+1200 · unknownD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned61 · 39
Sep 10Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaFor · Public Policy Institute of California1,060 · LVNEUTRAL——58 · 31
Aug 14UC Berkeley+19,254 · RVNEUTRAL——52 · 25
· 14 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DGavin Newsom0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBrian Dahle0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 25
Elections Daily
Safe D
Nov 6
538
Safe D
Nov 7
Inside Elections
Safe D
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified9 / 14deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks