Races · Governor · 2022 · Arkansas
Governor · open seat
Chris Jones vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+31.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.8 (10th pctile) to R+19.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +31.8
80% CI: R +43.8 → R +19.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 8 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+27.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 8 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | University of ArkansasFor · Political Science | 557 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +6.33 tracked | — | 34 · 53 |
| Oct 17 | Hendrix CollegeFor · Talk Business & Politics | 835 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 41 · 51 |
| Sep 14 | Remington Research Group+1For · FiveThirtyEight | 1,418 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.211 tracked | +1.6aligned | 34 · 59 |
| Sep 13 | Remington Research Group | 1,418 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.211 tracked | +1.6aligned | 34 · 59 |
| Sep 11 | Hendrix CollegeFor · Talk Business & Politics | 835 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 40 · 51 |
| Sep 6 | Echelon Insights+2 | 382 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 32 · 62 |
| Feb 26 | Remington Research Group+1 | 827 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.211 tracked | +1.6aligned | 28 · 58 |
| Feb 7 | Hendrix CollegeFor · Talk Business & Politics | 961 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 44 |
Endorsements · 83 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet6
77
Endorsements tracked
Chris Jones6 · 7%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders77 · 93%
Total83
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RSarah Huckabee Sanders77 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials73
Federal 7State 63Local 0
Elected officials · 73
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Mike Huckabee · former governor of Arkansas (1996–2007) and candidate for President of the United States in 2008 and 2016 (candidate's father)
- Mike Pence · 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Scott Flippo · Majority Leader of the Arkansas Senate (2021–present) and state senator from District 17 (2015–present)
- Matthew Shepherd · Speaker of the State Representative (2018–present) and state representative from District 6 (2011–present)
- Asa Hutchinson · Governor of Arkansas (2015–2023)
- Tim Griffin · Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas (2015–present)
- Alan Clark · state senator from District 13 (2013–present)
- Bart Hester · state senator from District 1 (2013–present)
- Bill Sample · state senator from District 14 (2011–present)
- Bob Ballinger · state senator from District 5 (2019–2023)
- Breanne Davis · state senator from District 29 (2018–present)
- Dan Sullivan · state senator from District 21 (2021–present)
- Gary Stubblefield · state senator from District 6 (2013–present)
- James Sturch · state senator from District 19 (2019–present)
- Jane English · state senator from District 34 (2013–present)
- Jason Rapert · state senator from District 35 (2013–present) and District 18 (2011–2013)
- Jimmy Hickey Jr. · President pro tempore of the Arkansas Senate (2021–present) and state senator from District 11 (2013–present)
- John Boozman · Senator from Arkansas (2011–present)
- Jonathan Dismang · state senator from District 28 (2013–present)
- Kim Hammer · state senator from District 33 (2019–present)
- Mathew Pitsch · state senator from District 8 (2019–2023)
- Missy Irvin · state senator from District 18 (2013–present)
- Ricky Hill · state senator from District 29 (2018–present)
- Ron Caldwell · state senator from District 23 (2013–present)
- Terry Rice · state senator from District 9 (2015–present)
- Tom Cotton · Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)
- Trent Garner · state senator from District 27 (2017–present)
- state senator · e, state senator from District 3 (2013–present)
- Mike Pompeo · former secretary of state (2018–2021)
- Donald Trump Jr. · businessman and son of former president Donald Trump
- Aaron Pilkington · state representative from District 69 (2017–present)
- Austin McCollum · state representative from District 95 (2017–present)
- Bruce Cozart · state representative from District 24 (2011–present)
- Bruce Westerman · U.S. representative from Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2015–present)
- Cameron Cooper · state representative from District 44 (2019–present)
- Carol Dalby · state representative from District 1 (2017–present)
- Charlene Fite · state representative from District 80 (2013–present)
- Danny Watson · state representative from District 3 (2017–present)
- David Hillman · state representative from District 13 (2013–present)
- David Tollett · state representative from District 12 (2021–present)
- DeAnn Vaught · state representative from District 4 (2015–present)
- Delia Haak · state representative from District 91 (2021–present)
- Dwight Tosh · state representative from District 52 (2015–present)
- French Hill · U.S. representative from Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (2015–present)
- Howard Beaty · state representative from District 9 (2021–present)
- Jack Ladyman · state representative from District 59 (2015–present)
- Jeff Wardlaw · state representative from District 8 (2011–present)
- Jimmy Gazaway · state representative from District 57 (2017–present)
- Joe Jett · state representative from District 56 (2013–present)
- John Eubanks · state representative from District 74 (2011–present)
- Justin Gonzales · state representative from District 19 (2015–present)
- Ken Bragg · state representative from District 15 (2013–present)
- Kendon Underwood · state representative from District 90 (2021–present)
- Lane Jean · state representative from District 2 (2013–present) and District 4 (2011–2012)
- Lanny Fite · state representative from District 23 (2015–present)
- Les Eaves · state representative from District 46 (2015–present)
- Mark Lowery · state representative from District 39 (2013–2023)
- Mark McElroy · state representative from District 11 (2021–present)
- Marsh Davis · state representative from District 61 (2019–present)
- Mary Bentley · state representative from District 73 (2015–present)
- Michelle Gray · state representative from District 62 (2015–present)
- Mike Holcomb · state representative from District 10 (2013–present)
- Richard Womack · state representative from District 18 (2013–present)
- Rick Crawford · U.S. representative from Arkansas's 1st congressional district (2011–present)
- Robin Lundstrum · state representative from District 87 (2015–present)
- Roger Lynch · state representative from District 14 (2017–present)
- Sonia Eubanks Barker · state representative from District 7 (2016–present)
- Spencer Hawks · state representative from District 70 (2019–present)
- Steve Womack · U.S. representative from Arkansas's 3rd congressional district (2011–present)
- Tony Furman · state representative from District 28 (2021–present)
- Vernon Jones · state representative for District 91 (2017–2021) and District 71 (1993–2001)
- state representative · representative from District 41 (2015–present)
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Kid Rock · musician
- Matt Schlapp · White House Director of Political Affairs (2003–2005)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- American Conservative Union
Other1
Other · 1
- Maggie's List
DChris Jones6 endorsers
Most notable · Jim Guy Tucker · former governor of Arkansas (1992–1996)
Other3
Other · 3
- 314 Action
- Democracy for America
- Richard Mays · former associate justice of the Arkansas Supreme Court (1979–1980) (candidate's husband)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Jim Guy Tucker · former governor of Arkansas (1992–1996)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Arkansas Democrat-Gazette · (Democratic primary only)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- The Collective PAC
LRicky Harrington0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 3
- Elections Daily · Nov 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 3
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jan 25
The Cook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified7 / 8deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements83 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks