Races · Governor · 2022 · Alabama
Governor · open seat
Yolanda Flowers vs Kay Ivey
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+44.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+56.4 (10th pctile) to R+32.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +44.4
80% CI: R +56.4 → R +32.4 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+37.7 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | Cygnal | 616 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.954 tracked | +1.2aligned | 25 · 60 |
Endorsements · 77 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet2
75
Endorsements tracked
Yolanda Flowers2 · 3%
Kay Ivey75 · 97%
Total77
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RKay Ivey75 endorsers
Most notable · Clay Scofield · majority leader of the Alabama Senate, Alabama state senator for District 9 ( Guntersville, 2010-present)
Elected officials62
Federal 0State 49Local 13
Elected officials · 62
- Clay Scofield · majority leader of the Alabama Senate, Alabama state senator for District 9 ( Guntersville, 2010-present)
- Nathaniel Ledbetter · majority leader of the Alabama House of Representatives, Alabama state representative for District 24 ( Rainsville, 2014-present)
- Mac McCutcheon · Speaker of the Alabama House of Representatives, Alabama state representative for District 25 ( Monrovia, 2006-present)
- Luke Lawson · governor of Alabama Alabama Boys State, and political activist (Democratic)
- Will Ainsworth · incumbent lieutenant governor of Alabama (2019–present)
- Bill Armistead · chairman of the Alabama Republican Party (2011–2015), former Alabama state senator for District 14 (1995–2003) (James' campaign chairman)
- Abbeville · ey, mayor of Abbeville (2020–present)
- Andalusia · son, mayor of Andalusia (2000–present)
- Andrew Jones · Alabama state senator for District 10 ( Centre, 2018-present)
- Andy Whitt · Alabama state representative for District 6 ( Harvest, 2018–present)
- Arthur Orr · Alabama state senator for District 3 ( Decatur, 2006-present)
- Auburn · ders, mayor of Auburn (2018–present)
- Ben Robbins · Alabama state representative for District 33 ( Sylacauga, 2018-present)
- Bubba Copeland · mayor of Smiths Station (2016–2023)
- Corley Ellis · Alabama state representative for District 41 ( Columbiana, 2018-present)
- Craig Lipscomb · Alabama state representative for District 30 ( Gadsden, 2018-present)
- Danny Crawford · Alabama state representative for District 5 ( Athens, 2016–present)
- Danny Garrett · Alabama state representative for District 44 ( Trussville, 2014-present)
- David Faulkner · Alabama state representative for District 46 ( Mountain Brook, 2014-present)
- David Standridge · Alabama state representative for District 34 ( Hayden, 2010-present)
- Dickie Drake · Alabama state representative for District 45 ( Leeds, 2011-present)
- Dothan · aliba, mayor of Dothan (2017–present)
- Garlan Gudger · Alabama state senator for District 4 ( Cullman, 2018-present)
- Geneva · Hayes, mayor of Geneva (2020–present)
- Ginny Shaver · Alabama state representative for District 39 ( Leesburg, 2018-present)
- Greg Reed · president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate, Alabama state senator for District 5 ( Jasper, 2010–present)
- Howard Sanderford · Alabama state representative for District 20 ( Huntsville, 1989–present)
- J. T. Waggoner · Alabama state senator for District 16 ( Vestavia Hills, 1990–present)
- Jim Hill · Alabama state representative for District 50 ( Moody, 2014-present)
- Jim McClendon · Alabama state senator for District 11 ( Springville, 2014-present)
- K.L. Brown · Alabama state representative for District 40 ( Jacksonville, 2010-present)
- Kerry Rich · Alabama state representative for District 26 ( Albertville, 2018-present)
- Kyle South · Alabama state representative for District 16 ( Fayette, 2014-present)
- Larry Stutts · Alabama state senator for District 6 ( Tuscumbia, 2014–present)
- Luverne · ley, mayor of Luverne (2016–present)
- Lynn Greer · Alabama state representative for District 2 ( Rogersville, 2002–present)
- Mike Holmes · Alabama state representative for District 31 ( Wetumpka, 2014–present)
- Notasulga · ler, mayor of Notasulga (2013–present)
- Opelika · ller, mayor of Opelika (2004–present)
- Opp · ky Bracke, mayor of Opp (2017–present)
- Ozark · Blankenship, mayor of Ozark (2020–present)
- Parker Moore · Alabama state representative for District 4 ( Decatur, 2018–present)
- Proncey Robertson · Alabama state representative for District 7 ( Mount Hope, 2018–present)
- Randall Shedd · Alabama state representative for District 11 ( Cullman, 2013-present)
- Randy Wood · Alabama state representative for District 36 ( Anniston, 2002-present)
- Rex Reynolds · Alabama state representative for District 21 ( Huntsville, 2018–present)
- Rich Wingo · Alabama state representative for District 62 ( Tuscaloosa, 2015–present)
- Ritchie Whorton · Alabama state representative for District 22 ( Owens Cross Roads, 2014–present)
- Rodney Sullivan · Alabama state representative for District 61 ( Northport, 2018-present)
- Russell Bedsole · Alabama state representative for District 49 ( Brierfield, 2018-present)
- Sandy Stimpson · mayor of Mobile (2013–present)
- Scott Stadthagen · Alabama state representative for District 9 ( Hartselle, 2018-present)
- Steve Hurst · Alabama state representative for District 35 ( Munford, 1998-present)
- Steve Livingston · Alabama state senator for District 8 ( Scottsboro, 2014-present)
- Terri Collins · Alabama state representative for District 8 ( Decatur, 2010–present)
- Tim Melson · Alabama state senator for District 1 ( Florence, 2014–present)
- Tim Wadsworth · Alabama state representative for District 14 ( Arley, 2014-present)
- Tom Butler · Alabama state senator for District 2 ( Madison, 2018–present)
- Tommy Hanes · Alabama state representative for District 23 ( Bryant, 2014–present)
- Tracy Estes · Alabama state representative for District 17 ( Winfield, 2018-present)
- Troy · n Reeves, mayor of Troy (2012–present)
- Wes Kitchens · Alabama state representative for District 27 ( Arab, 2018-present)
Other8
Other · 8
- Alabama State Board of Education · he Alabama State Board of Education (2003–2019)
- Alabama's 7th congressional district · for Alabama's 7th congressional district in 2022
- Alexander City · ayor of Alexander City (2020–present)
- Bassmaster Classic · etitive fisherman and 2014 Bassmaster Classic winner
- Mike Lindell · founder of MyPillow and conspiracy theorist
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- National Right to Life
- Susan B. Anthony List · Candidate Fund
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Alabama Conservative Party
- Alabama Republican Party · chair and former director of minority outreach for the Alabama Republican Party
- American Conservative Union
- American Family Association · Action
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Yellowhammer News · ive talk radio host of The Yaffee Program and Yellowhammer News contributor
DYolanda Flowers2 endorsers
Most notable · Democrats for Life of America
Other2
Other · 2
- Democrats for Life of America
- Flowers / Sanders · Fortier 50%
LJimmy Blake0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 3
- Elections Daily · Nov 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 3
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jan 25
The Cook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements77 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks