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Races · Governor · 2022 · Alaska
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Governor · open seat

Les Gara vs Mike Dunleavy

Alabama Governor →
Safe RR +22.9 forecast· 8 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Gara (D)
99% Dunleavy (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +22.9 · 80% CI R+34.9 → R+10.9
Actual result Mike DunleavyNancy Dahlstrom +26.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.9 (10th pctile) to R+10.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.9
80% CI: R +34.9 → R +10.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used8
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultMike DunleavyNancy Dahlstrom +26.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

0510152025303540455055DUNLEAVY 48.6GARA 24.9WALKER 22.1PIERCE 4.3MAY '22AUG '22OCT '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 8 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 24Dittman Research403 · LVNEUTRAL——25 · 47
Oct 22Dittman Research403 · unknownNEUTRAL——25 · 51
Sep 10Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+11,050 · LVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned24 · 45
Jul 24Alaska Survey Research+11,253 · LVNEUTRAL—+5.3decoupled22 · 41
Jul 23Hays Research Group613 · LVNEUTRAL——45 · 55
Jul 23Hays Research Group613 · LVNEUTRAL——50
Jul 4Alaska Survey Research+11,201 · LVNEUTRAL—+5.3decoupled26 · 44
May 10Lake Research Partners+1500 · LVNEUTRAL—+17.7noisy24 · 40

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMike Dunleavy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLes Gara0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IBill Walker0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RCharlie Pierce0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R5
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Jul 25
Elections Daily
Likely R
Nov 6
538
Likely R
Aug 24
Inside Elections
Likely R
Jul 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Jun 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified7 / 8deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks