| 11/4/2018 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 953 | — | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡2744d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Jeff Johnson 41.0 · Josh Welter 2.0 | pollarch |
| 11/3/2018 | Research Co. | 1.01 | —(D+1.5) | 450 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟡2745d old🔵bias D+1.5pt+1- 🟡
2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Jeff Johnson 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2018 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 600 | ±5.3 | unknown | 🟡2748d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Jeff Johnson 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/30/2018 | St. Cloud State University | 1.00 | — | 404 | — | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2749d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jeff Johnson 34.0 | pollarch |
| 10/17/2018 | Mason-Dixon | 0.56 | R(R+2.4) | 800 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.4pt🟡2762d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. - 🟡
2762d old Poll was fielded 2762 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Jeff Johnson 39.0 · Josh Welter 3.0 | pollarch |
| 10/13/2018 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 1413 | — | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡2766d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
2766d old Poll was fielded 2766 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Jeff Johnson 44.0 · Josh Welter 3.0 | pollarch |
| 10/4/2018 | Marist College | 1.00 | —(D+2.4) | 637 | ±4.9 | LV | 🟡bias D+2.4pt🟡2775d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. - 🟡
2775d old Poll was fielded 2775 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Jeff Johnson 36.0 · Josh Welter 6.0 | pollarch |
| 9/12/2018 | Mason-Dixon | 0.56 | R(R+2.4) | 800 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.4pt🟡2797d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. - 🟡
2797d old Poll was fielded 2797 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Jeff Johnson 36.0 · Josh Welter 1.0 | pollarch |
| 9/8/2018 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 574 | ±4.9 | unknown | 🟡2801d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2801d old Poll was fielded 2801 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Jeff Johnson 40.0 | pollarch |
| 8/20/2018 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡2820d old🔵bias D+0.1pt+1- 🟡
2820d old Poll was fielded 2820 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Jeff Johnson 41.0 · Josh Welter 1.0 | pollarch |
| 8/11/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 500 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟡2829d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2829d old Poll was fielded 2829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Jeff Johnson 33.0 | pollarch |
| 8/11/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 500 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟡2829d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2829d old Poll was fielded 2829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Lori Swanson 44.0 · Tim Pawlenty 36.0 | pollarch |
| 8/11/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 500 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟡2829d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2829d old Poll was fielded 2829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Tim Walz 44.0 · Tim Pawlenty 33.0 | pollarch |
| 8/11/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 500 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟡2829d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2829d old Poll was fielded 2829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Lori Swanson 37.0 · Jeff Johnson 32.0 | pollarch |
| 7/19/2018 | Marist College | 1.00 | —(D+2.4) | 876 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.4pt🟡2852d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. - 🟡
2852d old Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Erin Murphy 48.0 · Tim Pawlenty 40.0 | pollarch |
| 7/19/2018 | Marist College | 1.00 | —(D+2.4) | 876 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.4pt🟡2852d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. - 🟡
2852d old Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Lori Swanson 51.0 · Tim Pawlenty 40.0 | pollarch |
| 7/19/2018 | Marist College | 1.00 | —(D+2.4) | 876 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.4pt🟡2852d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. - 🟡
2852d old Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Tim Walz 51.0 · Tim Pawlenty 40.0 | pollarch |
| 6/25/2018 | BK Strategies | 1.00 | — | 1574 | ±2.5 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2876d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2876d old Poll was fielded 2876 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,574 Sample size of 1,574 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Lori Swanson 46.0 · Tim Pawlenty 41.0 | pollarch |
| 6/25/2018 | BK Strategies | 1.00 | — | 1574 | ±2.5 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2876d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2876d old Poll was fielded 2876 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,574 Sample size of 1,574 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Tim Walz 48.0 · Tim Pawlenty 41.0 | pollarch |