Races · Governor · 2018 · MI

Governor · open seat

Gretchen Whitmer vs Bill Schuette

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Tossup — · 47 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2743d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 47 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

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Tossup

tossup

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 47 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:47 of 47 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/5/2018	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	827	±3.4	unknown	2743d oldbias R+0.0pt 2743d old Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Bill Schuette 41.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 48.0	poll arch
11/4/2018	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	701	±3.7	unknown	2744d oldbias R+0.0pt 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Bill Schuette 40.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 54.0	poll arch
11/4/2018	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	880	—	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt2744d old+1 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Bill Schuette 43.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 51.0 · Bill Gelineau 2.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	±4.6	unknown	2745d oldbias D+1.5pt+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 43.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 47.0	poll arch
10/27/2018	Glengariff Group	0.81	L(D+4.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2752d oldtracks editorial consensus 2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 38.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 50.0 · Bill Gelineau 2.0	poll arch
10/26/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	822	±3.6	unknown	2753d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Schuette 41.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 52.0	poll arch
10/25/2018	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	400	±5.0	unknown	2754d oldbias R+0.0pt 2754d old Poll was fielded 2754 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Bill Schuette 43.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 48.0	poll arch
10/24/2018	Target Insyght	1.00	—	800	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls2755d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2755d old Poll was fielded 2755 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 44.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 48.0 · Bill Gelineau 1.0	poll arch
10/23/2018	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	2756d oldtracks editorial consensus 2756d old Poll was fielded 2756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 41.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 46.0 · Bill Gelineau 3.0	poll arch
10/22/2018	Michigan State University	1.00	—	169	—	unknown	no scored pollsn=169+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=169 Sample size of 169 respondents implies a margin of error around ±7.5pt — wider than typical. 2757d old Poll was fielded 2757 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 39.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 47.0	poll arch
10/21/2018	A.L.G. Research	1.00	—	906	±3.3	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2758d old Poll was fielded 2758 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 36.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 47.0 · Bill Gelineau 4.0	poll arch
10/18/2018	Marketing Resource Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2761d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2761d old Poll was fielded 2761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 36.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 50.0 · Bill Gelineau 2.0	poll arch
10/14/2018	A.L.G. Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2765d old Poll was fielded 2765 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 36.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 46.0 · Bill Gelineau 3.0	poll arch
10/7/2018	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	654	±3.8	unknown	2772d oldbias R+0.0pt 2772d old Poll was fielded 2772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Bill Schuette 38.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 46.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	Glengariff Group	0.81	L(D+4.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2777d oldtracks editorial consensus 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 35.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 47.0	poll arch
9/30/2018	A.L.G. Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2779d old Poll was fielded 2779 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 37.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 49.0 · Bill Gelineau 2.0	poll arch
9/25/2018	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	2784d oldtracks editorial consensus 2784d old Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 37.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 45.0 · Bill Gelineau 2.0	poll arch
9/24/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1150	±3.0	unknown	2785d oldtracks editorial consensus 2785d old Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 39.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 52.0	poll arch
9/14/2018	Target Insyght	1.00	—	800	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls2795d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2795d old Poll was fielded 2795 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 41.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 50.0	poll arch
9/13/2018	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	1009	±3.0	unknown	2796d oldbias R+0.0pt 2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Bill Schuette 38.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 48.0	poll arch
9/13/2018	A.L.G. Research	1.00	—	798	±3.5	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 38.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 45.0 · Bill Gelineau 3.0	poll arch
9/9/2018	Strategic National	1.00	R	1000	±3.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2800d old Poll was fielded 2800 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 39.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 49.0	poll arch
9/7/2018	Glengariff Group	0.81	L(D+4.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2802d oldtracks editorial consensus 2802d old Poll was fielded 2802 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 36.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 50.0 · Bill Gelineau 2.0	poll arch
8/16/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	647	±3.9	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2824d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2824d old Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Schuette 37.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 52.0	poll arch
8/14/2018	Strategic National	1.00	R	700	±3.7	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2826d old Poll was fielded 2826 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 36.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 45.0	poll arch
7/21/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±4.3	unknown	2850d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2850d old Poll was fielded 2850 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Schuette 36.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 43.0	poll arch
7/21/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±4.3	unknown	2850d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2850d old Poll was fielded 2850 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Schuette 38.0 · Abdul El-Sayed 33.0	poll arch
7/21/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±4.3	unknown	2850d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2850d old Poll was fielded 2850 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Schuette 35.0 · Shri Thanedar 38.0	poll arch
7/21/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±4.3	unknown	2850d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2850d old Poll was fielded 2850 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Brian Calley 33.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 44.0	poll arch
7/21/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±4.3	unknown	2850d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2850d old Poll was fielded 2850 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Brian Calley 38.0 · Shri Thanedar 36.0	poll arch
7/19/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	886	±3.9	unknown	bias D+2.4pt2852d old+1 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2852d old Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 38.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 47.0	poll arch
6/26/2018	Target Insyght	1.00	—	800	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls2875d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2875d old Poll was fielded 2875 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 37.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 42.0	poll arch
6/26/2018	Target Insyght	1.00	—	800	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls2875d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2875d old Poll was fielded 2875 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 37.0 · Shri Thanedar 40.0	poll arch
6/21/2018	NMB Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2880d old Poll was fielded 2880 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 39.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 40.0	poll arch
6/21/2018	NMB Research (R-Better Jobs PAC)	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2880d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2880d old Poll was fielded 2880 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 40.0 · Shri Thanedar 40.0	poll arch
5/3/2018	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	2929d oldtracks editorial consensus 2929d old Poll was fielded 2929 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 38.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 43.0	poll arch
5/3/2018	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	2929d oldtracks editorial consensus 2929d old Poll was fielded 2929 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 38.0 · Shri Thanedar 44.0	poll arch
1/19/2018	Glengariff Group	0.81	L(D+4.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	3033d oldtracks editorial consensus 3033d old Poll was fielded 3033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 33.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 40.0	poll arch
1/19/2018	Glengariff Group	0.81	L(D+4.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	3033d oldtracks editorial consensus 3033d old Poll was fielded 3033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 38.0 · Abdul El-Sayed 34.0	poll arch
12/13/2017	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	3070d oldtracks editorial consensus 3070d old Poll was fielded 3070 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 38.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 35.0	poll arch
11/6/2017	Target Insyght	1.00	—	1000	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls3107d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3107d old Poll was fielded 3107 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 40.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 41.0	poll arch
11/6/2017	Target Insyght	1.00	—	1000	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls3107d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3107d old Poll was fielded 3107 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 42.0 · Geoffrey Fieger 35.0	poll arch
11/6/2017	Target Insyght	1.00	—	1000	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls3107d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3107d old Poll was fielded 3107 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 32.0 · Mike Duggan 47.0	poll arch
9/14/2017	Michigan State University	1.00	—	963	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls3160d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3160d old Poll was fielded 3160 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Schuette 35.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 41.0	poll arch
9/14/2017	Michigan State University	1.00	—	963	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls3160d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3160d old Poll was fielded 3160 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Brian Calley 34.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 42.0	poll arch
9/1/2017	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	3173d oldtracks editorial consensus 3173d old Poll was fielded 3173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 37.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 37.0	poll arch
9/1/2017	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	3173d oldtracks editorial consensus 3173d old Poll was fielded 3173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Schuette 43.0 · Geoffrey Fieger 33.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean D	Oct 26	—	+3.5	—
FiveThirtyEight	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Lean D	Nov 4	—	+3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 91 months ago (11/5/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi