Races · Governor · 2018 · ME
Governor · open seat

Janet Mills vs Shawn Moody

← MD Governor MI Governor →
Tilt D — · 6 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2747d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 6 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D

tilt-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 6 results

6 of 6 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/1/2018Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes)1.00—518—unknown
no scored polls2747d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2747d old
    Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Shawn Moody 37.0 · Janet Mills 49.0 · Terry Hayes 11.0pollarch
10/29/2018Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)883±3.5unknown
2750d oldtracks editorial consensus+1
  • 2750d old
    Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Shawn Moody 42.0 · Janet Mills 50.0pollarch
10/7/2018Pan Atlantic Research1.00—500±4.4unknown
no scored polls2772d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2772d old
    Poll was fielded 2772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Shawn Moody 36.0 · Janet Mills 44.0 · Terry Hayes 8.0 · Alan Caron 2.0pollarch
10/1/2018Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)801—unknown
historical bias D+3.7pt2778d old+1
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2778d old
    Poll was fielded 2778 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Shawn Moody 44.0 · Janet Mills 52.0pollarch
9/30/2018Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes)1.00—600—unknown
no scored polls2779d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2779d old
    Poll was fielded 2779 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Shawn Moody 42.0 · Janet Mills 45.0 · Terry Hayes 9.0 · Alan Caron 4.0pollarch
8/6/2018Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
2834d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 2834d old
    Poll was fielded 2834 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Shawn Moody 39.0 · Janet Mills 39.0 · Terry Hayes 4.0 · Alan Caron 3.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 91 total
Janet Mills (D)
74 endorsements · source
Elected officials (46)
  • Alan Casavant — Mayor of Biddeford , former state representative [ 70 ]
  • Anne Haskell — former state senator [ 80 ]
  • Anne-Marie Mastraccio — state representative [ 70 ]
  • Beth Edmonds — former President of the Maine Senate [ 95 ]
  • Charlotte Warren — state representative [ 101 ]
  • Colleen Madigan — state representative [ 70 ]
  • Dale McCormick — former Maine State Treasurer , former state senator, candidate for ME-01 in 1996 [ 97 ] [ 98 ]
  • David Lemoine — former state representative [ 70 ]
  • Dawn Hill — state senator [ 85 ]
  • Deane Rykerson — state representative [ 78 ]
  • Drew Gattine — state representative [ 78 ]
  • Emily Cain — former state senator, nominee for ME-02 in 2014 and 2016, executive director of EMILY's List [ 85 ]
  • Ethan Strimling — Mayor of Portland , former state senator, candidate for ME-01 in 2008 [ 99 ]
  • Helen Rankin — former state representative [ 88 ]
  • Janice Cooper — state representative [ 70 ]
  • Joan Welsh — former state representative [ 78 ]
  • Jon Hinck — former state representative and former Portland City Councillor [ 70 ]
  • Justin Alfond — former President of the Maine Senate [ 69 ]
  • Justin Chenette — state senator [ 71 ]
  • Linda Sanborn — former state representative [ 78 ]
  • Linda Valentino — state senator [ 70 ]
  • Lois Galgay Reckitt — state representative [ 87 ]
  • Lynn Bromley — former state senator [ 84 ]
  • Margaret Craven — former state senator [ 85 ]
  • Maura Healey — Massachusetts Attorney General [ 89 ]
  • Mayor of Portland — former Mayor of Portland [ 70 ]
  • Michael Brennan — former mayor of Portland , former state senator, candidate for ME-01 in 2008 [ 70 ]
  • Mike Sylvester — state representative [ 100 ]
  • Nate Libby — state senator, Senate Minority Whip [ 72 ]
  • Patrick K. McGowan — former state representative, candidate for Governor in 2010 , nominee for ME-02 in 1990 and 1992 , former Small Business Administration Regional Administrator [ 70 ]
  • Portland — d, former Portland City Councillor , vice president of the Equality Maine Foundation [ 98 ]
  • Richard Farnsworth — state representative [ 78 ]
  • Roger Fuller — state representative [ 78 ]
  • Ryan Fecteau — state representative [ 78 ]
  • Sanford — e, Mayor of Sanford [ 70 ]
  • Sean Faircloth — Bangor City Councillor, former Mayor of Bangor, former state senator, former gubernatorial candidate (2018) [ 78 ]
  • Seth Berry — state representative [ 78 ]
  • Stephen Stanley — state representative [ 73 ]
  • Tom Allen — former US Representative for ME-01 , nominee for US Senate in 2008 [ 68 ]
  • United States Department of Homeland Security — meland Security , civil rights activist, former President of the NAACP in Maine [ 77 ]
  • Westbrook — anphy, Mayor of Westbrook [ 70 ]
  • [ 70 ] — n Canavan, state representative [ 70 ]
  • [ 77 ] — in Collings, state representative [ 77 ]
  • [ 86 ] — Davis, former state representative [ 86 ]
  • [ 93 ] — t "Brownie" Carson, state senator [ 93 ]
  • [ 96 ] — Kusiak, former state representative, candidate for State Senate [ 96 ]
Newspapers (1)
  • Bangor Daily News — [ 75 ]
Organizations / unions (4)
  • Presque Isle — former Presque Isle Town Council Chair [ 70 ]
  • Working Families Party — [ 82 ] (also endorsed Sweet and Russell)
  • [ 74 ] — Council of Machinists [ 74 ]
  • [ 90 ] — ilson, executive director, Maine Gun Safety Coalition [ 90 ] [ 91 ]
Individuals / celebrities (2)
  • Cenk Uygur — journalist, host of The Young Turks [ 102 ]
  • Timothy Simons — actor [ 76 ]
Other (21)
  • 20 — 30%
  • 30 — 40%
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • Augusta — unson, former Augusta City Councillor [ 70 ]
  • Ben Cohen — cofounder, Ben & Jerry's [ 95 ]
  • Brewer — O'Connell, Brewer City Councillor [ 70 ]
  • Cumberland County Jail — r Cumberland County Jail Administrator [ 77 ]
  • Democratic Socialists of America — ists of America [ 104 ]
  • Emily's List — [ 92 ]
  • Lincoln County — Sheriff of Lincoln County [ 70 ]
  • Marianne Williamson — writer [ 103 ]
  • Orono — ia Mehnert, Orono Town Councillor [ 70 ]
  • Penobscot County — Penobscot County Commissioner [ 70 ]
  • Portland City Councillor — and City Councillor [ 70 ]
  • Warren Silver — former Maine Supreme Judicial Court justice [ 78 ]
  • [ 78 ] — ldacci, former Bangor City Councillor [ 78 ]
  • [ 79 ] — k Eisenhart, former gubernatorial candidate (2018) [ 79 ]
  • [ 81 ] — orkers Local 7 [ 81 ]
  • [ 94 ] — Davitt, Bangor City Councillor [ 94 ]
Shawn Moody (R)
17 endorsements · source
Elected officials (11)
  • Beth O'Connor — state representative [ 39 ]
  • James Hamper — state senator [ 39 ]
  • Lewiston — onald, former mayor of Lewiston [ 40 ]
  • Marco Rubio — United States senator from Florida and 2016 presidential candidate [ 36 ]
  • Newt Gingrich — former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives [ 38 ]
  • Paul LePage — nnett, former spokesperson for governor Paul LePage [ 41 ]
  • Rick Bennett — former president of the Maine Senate , former chair of the Maine Republican Party [ 42 ]
  • Scott Cyrway — state senator [ 39 ]
  • Susan Austin — state representative [ 39 ]
  • Ted Cruz — United States senator from Texas and 2016 presidential candidate [ 37 ]
  • [ 39 ] — d Bradstreet, state representative [ 39 ]
Newspapers (1)
  • Bangor Daily News — [ 44 ]
Other (5)
  • 30 — 40%
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • [ 43 ] — Page, First Lady of Maine [ 43 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Tossup Oct 26 — 0.0 —
FiveThirtyEight Likely D Nov 5 — +9.0 —
RealClearPolitics Lean D Nov 4 — +3.5 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D Nov 5 — +3.5 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (11/1/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Tilt D via pvi