Races · Governor · 2018 · MD

Governor · open seat

Ben Jealous vs Larry Hogan

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Likely D — · 42 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2772d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 42 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 42 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:42 of 42 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/7/2018	University of Maryland	1.00	—	648	±4.5	LV	no scored polls2772d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2772d old Poll was fielded 2772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Larry Hogan 58.0 · Ben Jealous 38.0	poll arch
10/6/2018	Gonzales Research	1.00	—	806	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2773d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2773d old Poll was fielded 2773 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 54.0 · Ben Jealous 36.0	poll arch
9/26/2018	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt2783d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 2783d old Poll was fielded 2783 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Larry Hogan 52.0 · Ben Jealous 37.0	poll arch
9/16/2018	Goucher College	1.00	—	472	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2793d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2793d old Poll was fielded 2793 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 54.0 · Ben Jealous 32.0	poll arch
8/8/2018	Gonzales Research	1.00	—	831	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2832d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2832d old Poll was fielded 2832 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 52.0 · Ben Jealous 36.0	poll arch
7/14/2018	Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous)	1.00	—	601	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2857d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2857d old Poll was fielded 2857 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 49.0 · Ben Jealous 40.0	poll arch
6/10/2018	Gonzales Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2891d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2891d old Poll was fielded 2891 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 51.0 · Ben Jealous 34.0	poll arch
6/10/2018	Gonzales Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2891d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2891d old Poll was fielded 2891 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 48.0 · Rushern Baker 37.0	poll arch
6/10/2018	Gonzales Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2891d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2891d old Poll was fielded 2891 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 50.0 · Richard Madaleno 36.0	poll arch
6/3/2018	University of Maryland	1.00	—	968	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2898d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2898d old Poll was fielded 2898 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 51.0 · Ben Jealous 39.0	poll arch
6/3/2018	University of Maryland	1.00	—	968	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2898d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2898d old Poll was fielded 2898 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 51.0 · Rushern Baker 39.0	poll arch
6/3/2018	University of Maryland	1.00	—	465	±6.0	unknown	no scored polls2898d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2898d old Poll was fielded 2898 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 50.0 · Richard Madaleno 40.0	poll arch
6/3/2018	University of Maryland	1.00	—	465	±6.0	unknown	no scored polls2898d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2898d old Poll was fielded 2898 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 55.0 · Alec Ross 31.0	poll arch
6/3/2018	University of Maryland	1.00	—	465	±6.0	unknown	no scored polls2898d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2898d old Poll was fielded 2898 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 53.0 · Jim Shea 35.0	poll arch
6/3/2018	University of Maryland	1.00	—	465	±6.0	unknown	no scored polls2898d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2898d old Poll was fielded 2898 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 54.0 · Krish Vignarajah 35.0	poll arch
6/3/2018	University of Maryland	1.00	—	465	±6.0	unknown	no scored polls2898d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2898d old Poll was fielded 2898 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 51.0 · Valerie Ervin 38.0	poll arch
4/19/2018	Goucher College	1.00	—	617	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2943d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2943d old Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 44.0 · Ben Jealous 31.0	poll arch
4/19/2018	Goucher College	1.00	—	617	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2943d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2943d old Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 44.0 · Rushern Baker 31.0	poll arch
4/19/2018	Goucher College	1.00	—	617	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2943d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2943d old Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 45.0 · Richard Madaleno 27.0	poll arch
4/19/2018	Goucher College	1.00	—	617	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2943d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2943d old Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 46.0 · Alec Ross 26.0	poll arch
4/19/2018	Goucher College	1.00	—	617	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2943d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2943d old Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 47.0 · Jim Shea 27.0	poll arch
4/19/2018	Goucher College	1.00	—	617	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2943d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2943d old Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 45.0 · Krish Vignarajah 25.0	poll arch
4/19/2018	Goucher College	1.00	—	617	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2943d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2943d old Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 45.0 · Kevin Kamenetz 28.0	poll arch
3/11/2018	Burton Research & Strategies	1.00	R	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2982d old Poll was fielded 2982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 54.0 · Rushern Baker 29.0	poll arch
3/11/2018	Burton Research & Strategies	1.00	R	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2982d old Poll was fielded 2982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 57.0 · Kevin Kamenetz 26.0	poll arch
2/22/2018	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt2999d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 2999d old Poll was fielded 2999 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Larry Hogan 50.0 · Ben Jealous 33.0	poll arch
2/22/2018	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt2999d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 2999d old Poll was fielded 2999 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Larry Hogan 51.0 · Rushern Baker 36.0	poll arch
2/22/2018	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt2999d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 2999d old Poll was fielded 2999 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Larry Hogan 49.0 · Kevin Kamenetz 34.0	poll arch
2/17/2018	Goucher College	1.00	—	658	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls3004d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3004d old Poll was fielded 3004 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 47.0	poll arch
12/27/2017	Gonzales Research	1.00	—	823	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3056d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3056d old Poll was fielded 3056 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 49.0 · Ben Jealous 36.0	poll arch
12/27/2017	Gonzales Research	1.00	—	823	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3056d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3056d old Poll was fielded 3056 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 47.0 · Rushern Baker 37.0	poll arch
12/27/2017	Gonzales Research	1.00	—	823	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3056d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3056d old Poll was fielded 3056 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 48.0 · Kevin Kamenetz 34.0	poll arch
11/18/2017	GBA Strategies	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3095d old Poll was fielded 3095 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 45.0	poll arch
11/7/2017	OpinionWorks	1.00	—	850	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls3106d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3106d old Poll was fielded 3106 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Larry Hogan 43.0	poll arch
9/30/2017	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt3144d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 3144d old Poll was fielded 3144 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Larry Hogan 49.0 · Ben Jealous 33.0	poll arch
9/30/2017	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt3144d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 3144d old Poll was fielded 3144 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Larry Hogan 46.0 · Rushern Baker 39.0	poll arch
9/30/2017	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt3144d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 3144d old Poll was fielded 3144 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Larry Hogan 49.0 · Richard Madaleno 30.0	poll arch
9/30/2017	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt3144d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 3144d old Poll was fielded 3144 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Larry Hogan 48.0 · Kevin Kamenetz 35.0	poll arch
3/22/2017	Washington Post/University of Maryland	1.00	—	914	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3336d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3336d old Poll was fielded 3336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of Maryland Commissioned by University of Maryland, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Larry Hogan 39.0	poll arch
3/19/2017	Washington Post/University of Maryland	1.00	—	914	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3339d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3339d old Poll was fielded 3339 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of Maryland Commissioned by University of Maryland, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Larry Hogan 41.0	poll arch
4/17/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	879	±3.3	unknown	3675d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3675d old Poll was fielded 3675 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Larry Hogan 48.0 · John Delaney 29.0	poll arch
4/17/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	879	±3.3	unknown	3675d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3675d old Poll was fielded 3675 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Larry Hogan 48.0 · Tom Perez 24.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 68 total

Larry Hogan (R)

68 endorsements · source

Elected officials (19)

Berlin — lliams, mayor of Berlin [ 14 ]
Bowie — Robinson, Bowie mayor [ 13 ]
Casper R. Taylor Jr. — former Speaker of the Maryland House of Delegates [ 13 ]
Chesapeake Beach — er Chesapeake Beach mayor, former president of the Maryland Municipal League [ 13 ]
Chestertown — y, former Chestertown mayor [ 14 ]
Dennis C. Donaldson — former speaker pro tempore of the House of Delegates [ 13 ]
Dorchester County — rchester County Council president [ 14 ]
Frostburg — anigan, mayor of Frostburg [ 14 ]
Gaithersburg — Gaithersburg mayor [ 13 ]
Hurlock — Henry, mayor of Hurlock [ 13 ]
James Brochin — state senator [ 12 ]
Melvin Steinberg — former lieutenant governor of Maryland [ 10 ]
Neal Simon — Independent U.S. Senate candidate [ 19 ]
R. Clayton Mitchell Jr. — former Speaker of the Maryland House of Delegates [ 10 ]
Robert R. Neall — former senator [ 11 ]
Rona E. Kramer — former senator [ 11 ]
Salisbury — h, Salisbury City Council President [ 16 ]
[ 14 ] — ce Levitan, former senator [ 14 ]
[ 15 ] — ay, Salisbury mayor [ 15 ]

Newspapers (3)

The Baltimore Sun — [ 36 ]
The Daily Times — [ 38 ]
The Washington Post — [ 40 ]

Organizations / unions (16)

Democratic National Committee — rer of the Democratic National Committee and Officer of the Executive Committee [ 10 ]
International Association of Firefighters — [ 22 ]
Kent County — chairman of the Clean Chesapeake Coalition and Kent County Commissioner [ 10 ]
Laborers' International Union of North America — [ 25 ]
Maryland Democratic Party — and Democratic Party Chairman [ 18 ]
National Association of Home Builders — [ 32 ]
National Federation of Independent Business — [ 35 ]
United Association — [ 26 ]
United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers — [ 27 ]
[ 20 ] — nd Fire Chiefs Association [ 20 ]
[ 21 ] — Law Enforcement Officers Labor Alliance [ 21 ]
[ 23 ] — nd Pipe Trades Association [ 23 ]
[ 24 ] — itters & Plumbers Local Union 486 [ 24 ]
[ 31 ] — Firefighters Association of Frederick Local 3666 [ 31 ]
[ 32 ] — nd Building Industry Association [ 32 ]
[ 34 ] — George's County Professional Fire Fighters & Paramedics Association IAFF Local 1619 [ 34 ]

Other (30)

Alexander Williams Jr. — retired federal judge [ 10 ]
Baltimore City Councilwoman — more City Councilwoman [ 10 ]
Calvert County — ormer Calvert County Commissioner [ 11 ]
Charles Koch — businessman [ 17 ]
Chris Christie — businessman and brother of Chris Christie [ 17 ]
Cumberland — elli, former Cumberland City Councilman [ 14 ]
David Koch — businessman [ 17 ]
Donna M. Felling — former delegate [ 14 ]
Eileen M. Rehrmann — former Harford County Executive [ 11 ]
Fraternal Order of Police — [ 29 ]
George F. Johnson IV — former Anne Arundel County sheriff [ 11 ]
Hagerstown — ner, Hagerstown City Councilman [ 13 ]
Joe Bartenfelder — former House Deputy Majority Whip [ 11 ]
John F. Wood Jr. — former delegate [ 10 ]
Keiffer Mitchell Jr. — former delegate, Baltimore City Councilman [ 11 ]
Middletown — r, Middletown Burgess [ 14 ]
O. James Lighthizer — former Anne Arundel County Executive [ 11 ]
Prince George's County — rince George's County sheriff [ 11 ]
Robert W. Curran — former Baltimore City Councilman [ 11 ]
Steven J. DeBoy Sr. — former delegate [ 13 ]
The Capital — [ 37 ]
Walkersville — Walkersville Burgess [ 14 ]
Washington County — Washington County sheriff [ 11 ]
Washington Jewish Week — [ 39 ]
[ 10 ] — ox, former House Deputy Majority Whip [ 10 ]
[ 11 ] — Owings, former House Majority Whip [ 11 ]
[ 13 ] — l Estève, Bowie City Councilman [ 13 ]
[ 28 ] — City Career Fire Fighters and Paramedics [ 28 ]
[ 30 ] — ore Fire Fighters Local 734 [ 30 ]
[ 33 ] — lis City Fraternal Order Of Police Lodge #1 [ 33 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Oct 26	—	-9.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Likely R	Nov 4	—	-9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Nov 5	—	-9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/7/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi