Races · Governor · 2018 · MA

Governor · open seat

Jay Gonzalez vs Charlie Baker

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Likely D — · 28 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2751d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 28 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 28 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:28 of 28 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/28/2018	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	502	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls2751d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 68.0 · Jay Gonzalez 25.0	poll arch
10/28/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2751d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Charlie Baker 65.0 · Jay Gonzalez 26.0	poll arch
10/27/2018	Western New England University	1.00	—	402	±5.0	LV	no scored polls2752d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Charlie Baker 65.0 · Jay Gonzalez 27.0	poll arch
10/7/2018	UMass Lowell	1.00	—	485	±5.6	LV	no scored polls2772d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2772d old Poll was fielded 2772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Charlie Baker 66.0 · Jay Gonzalez 27.0	poll arch
9/21/2018	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	506	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls2788d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2788d old Poll was fielded 2788 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 68.0 · Jay Gonzalez 24.0	poll arch
9/17/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2792d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2792d old Poll was fielded 2792 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Charlie Baker 55.0 · Jay Gonzalez 28.0	poll arch
6/12/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2889d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2889d old Poll was fielded 2889 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Charlie Baker 52.0 · Jay Gonzalez 22.0	poll arch
6/12/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2889d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2889d old Poll was fielded 2889 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Charlie Baker 54.0 · Bob Massie 21.0	poll arch
5/26/2018	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	501	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls2906d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2906d old Poll was fielded 2906 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 60.0 · Jay Gonzalez 20.0	poll arch
5/26/2018	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	501	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls2906d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2906d old Poll was fielded 2906 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 60.0 · Bob Massie 20.0	poll arch
3/18/2018	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	504	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls2975d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2975d old Poll was fielded 2975 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 60.0 · Jay Gonzalez 21.0	poll arch
3/18/2018	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	504	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls2975d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2975d old Poll was fielded 2975 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 58.0 · Setti Warren 24.0	poll arch
3/18/2018	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	504	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls2975d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2975d old Poll was fielded 2975 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 59.0 · Bob Massie 22.0	poll arch
11/12/2017	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	503	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3101d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3101d old Poll was fielded 3101 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 59.0 · Jay Gonzalez 19.0	poll arch
11/12/2017	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	504	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3101d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3101d old Poll was fielded 3101 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 58.0 · Setti Warren 24.0	poll arch
11/12/2017	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	504	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3101d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3101d old Poll was fielded 3101 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 60.0 · Bob Massie 21.0	poll arch
6/22/2017	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	504	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3244d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3244d old Poll was fielded 3244 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 55.0 · Jay Gonzalez 22.0	poll arch
6/22/2017	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	504	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3244d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3244d old Poll was fielded 3244 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 53.0 · Setti Warren 26.0	poll arch
6/22/2017	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	504	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3244d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3244d old Poll was fielded 3244 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 48.0 · Maura Healey 36.0	poll arch
6/22/2017	MassINC	0.87	—(R+4.6)	504	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3244d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3244d old Poll was fielded 3244 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Charlie Baker 55.0 · Bob Massie 25.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	UMass Amherst	1.00	—	400	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3519d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Charlie Baker 40.0 · Setti Warren 17.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	UMass Amherst	1.00	—	400	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3519d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Charlie Baker 39.0 · Katherine Clark 24.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	UMass Amherst	1.00	—	400	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3519d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Charlie Baker 43.0 · Maura Healey 25.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	UMass Amherst	1.00	—	400	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3519d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Charlie Baker 33.0 · Joseph P. Kennedy III 33.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	UMass Amherst	1.00	—	400	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3519d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Charlie Baker 39.0 · Seth Moulton 21.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	UMass Amherst	1.00	—	400	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3519d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Charlie Baker 37.0 · Marty Walsh 28.0	poll arch
7/13/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	901	±3.3	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3588d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3588d old Poll was fielded 3588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Charlie Baker 56.0 · Maura Healey 30.0	poll arch
7/13/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	901	±3.3	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3588d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3588d old Poll was fielded 3588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Charlie Baker 50.0 · Joseph P. Kennedy III 38.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 6 total

Charlie Baker (R)

6 endorsements · source

Elected officials (3)

Barnstable County — able County Commissioner and candidate for state representative [ 15 ]
Gloucester — meo Theken, mayor of Gloucester [ 22 ]
Karyn Polito — incumbent lieutenant governor [ 20 ]

Newspapers (2)

Boston Herald — [ 25 ]
The Boston Globe — [ 24 ]

Organizations / unions (1)

Massachusetts Republican Party — [ 23 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Oct 26	—	-18.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Safe R	Nov 4	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/28/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi