Races · Governor · 2018 · KS

Governor · open seat

Laura Kelly vs Kris Kobach

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Likely R — · 13 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2751d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 13 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 13 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:13 of 13 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/28/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	976	±3.3	unknown	2751d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Kris Kobach 44.0 · Laura Kelly 43.0 · Greg Orman 8.0	poll arch
10/27/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	986	±3.6	unknown	2752d oldtracks editorial consensus 2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kris Kobach 41.0 · Laura Kelly 43.0 · Greg Orman 9.0	poll arch
10/21/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies)	1.00	—	698	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls2758d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2758d old Poll was fielded 2758 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kris Kobach 44.0 · Laura Kelly 48.0	poll arch
10/20/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies)	1.00	—	698	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls2759d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2759d old Poll was fielded 2759 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kris Kobach 41.0 · Laura Kelly 41.0 · Greg Orman 10.0 · Jeff Caldwell 2.0	poll arch
10/1/2018	Remington	1.00	R	1680	±2.4	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2778d old Poll was fielded 2778 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,680 Sample size of 1,680 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kris Kobach 41.0 · Laura Kelly 42.0 · Greg Orman 10.0 · Jeff Caldwell 2.0	poll arch
9/28/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	938	±3.5	unknown	2781d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2781d old Poll was fielded 2781 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Kris Kobach 37.0 · Laura Kelly 36.0 · Greg Orman 9.0	poll arch
9/25/2018	Fort Hays State University	1.00	—	324	—	unknown	no scored pollsn=324+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=324 Sample size of 324 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.4pt — wider than typical. 2784d old Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kris Kobach 36.0 · Laura Kelly 40.0 · Greg Orman 10.0	poll arch
9/24/2018	Civiqs (D-Crawford County Dems)	1.00	—	1178	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls2785d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2785d old Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kris Kobach 39.0 · Laura Kelly 41.0 · Greg Orman 9.0 · Jeff Caldwell 5.0	poll arch
9/13/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Pottawatomie County Dems)	1.00	—	618	—	unknown	no scored polls2796d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kris Kobach 39.0 · Laura Kelly 38.0 · Greg Orman 9.0 · Jeff Caldwell 1.0	poll arch
9/13/2018	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	618	—	unknown	2796d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kris Kobach 47.0 · Laura Kelly 46.0	poll arch
8/26/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-KNEA PAC)	1.00	—	877	—	unknown	no scored polls2814d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2814d old Poll was fielded 2814 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kris Kobach 39.0 · Laura Kelly 38.0 · Greg Orman 9.0 · Jeff Caldwell 1.0	poll arch
7/20/2018	Remington	1.00	R	1189	±2.9	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2851d old Poll was fielded 2851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kris Kobach 35.0 · Laura Kelly 36.0 · Greg Orman 12.0	poll arch
7/20/2018	Remington	1.00	R	1189	±2.9	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2851d old Poll was fielded 2851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Colyer 38.0 · Laura Kelly 28.0 · Greg Orman 10.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 14 total

Laura Kelly (D)

14 endorsements · source

Elected officials (3)

Bill Graves — Republican former governor of Kansas [ 66 ]
John W. Carlin — former governor of Kansas and former Archivist of the United States [ 64 ]
[ 68 ] — Rep. Jason Probst, D-Hutchinson [ 68 ]

Organizations / unions (1)

[ 67 ] — nch, former Kansas Democratic Party chairman [ 67 ]

Other (10)

30 — 40%
40 — 50%
50 — 60%
60 — 70%
70 — 80%
80 — 90%
Pam Curtis — urtis , D-32nd Dist. [ 65 ]
Stan Frownfelter — elter , D-37th Dist. [ 65 ]
Tom Burroughs — Democratic member of the Kansas House of Representatives , former House minority leader [ 63 ]
[ 65 ] — roderick Henderson, D-35th Dist. [ 65 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Oct 26	—	0.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Tossup	Nov 5	—	0.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Tossup	Nov 4	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/28/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi