Races · Governor · 2018 · IL

Governor · open seat

J. B. Pritzker vs Bruce Rauner

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Lean D — · 34 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2745d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 34 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 34 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:34 of 34 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2018	Victory Research	0.81	—(D+1.2)	1208	±2.8	unknown	3 scored polls2745d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bruce Rauner 33.0 · J. B. Pritzker 49.0 · Kash Jackson 5.0	poll arch
10/5/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	968	±4.0	unknown	2774d oldtracks editorial consensus 2774d old Poll was fielded 2774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bruce Rauner 30.0 · J. B. Pritzker 50.0 · Kash Jackson 3.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	Victory Research	0.81	—(D+1.2)	1208	±2.8	unknown	3 scored polls2777d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bruce Rauner 32.0 · J. B. Pritzker 47.0 · Kash Jackson 6.0	poll arch
9/29/2018	Southern Illinois University	1.00	—	715	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls2780d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2780d old Poll was fielded 2780 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 27.0 · J. B. Pritzker 49.0 · Kash Jackson 4.0	poll arch
9/25/2018	ALG Research (D-Forward Illinois)	1.00	—	1007	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls2784d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2784d old Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 32.0 · J. B. Pritzker 48.0 · Kash Jackson 3.0	poll arch
9/13/2018	Research America Inc.	1.00	—	1024	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls2796d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 27.0 · J. B. Pritzker 44.0 · Kash Jackson 4.0	poll arch
8/16/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	734	±4.4	unknown	bias D+2.4pt2824d old+1 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2824d old Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bruce Rauner 30.0 · J. B. Pritzker 46.0 · Kash Jackson 6.0	poll arch
8/15/2018	University of Illinois Springfield	1.00	—	717	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls2825d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2825d old Poll was fielded 2825 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 23.0 · J. B. Pritzker 35.0	poll arch
8/14/2018	Victory Research	0.81	—(D+1.2)	1208	±2.8	unknown	3 scored polls2826d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2826d old Poll was fielded 2826 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bruce Rauner 30.0 · J. B. Pritzker 41.0 · Kash Jackson 2.0	poll arch
7/29/2018	Baselice & Associates (C-McCann)	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2842d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2842d old Poll was fielded 2842 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 29.0 · J. B. Pritzker 42.0 · Kash Jackson 6.0	poll arch
7/12/2018	Illinois Public Opinion	1.00	L	423	±5.0	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2859d old Poll was fielded 2859 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 26.0 · J. B. Pritzker 39.0 · Kash Jackson 1.0	poll arch
6/28/2018	Victory Research	0.81	—(D+1.2)	1208	±2.8	unknown	3 scored polls2873d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2873d old Poll was fielded 2873 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bruce Rauner 30.0 · J. B. Pritzker 45.0 · Kash Jackson 2.0	poll arch
6/11/2018	We Ask America	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2890d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2890d old Poll was fielded 2890 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 27.0 · J. B. Pritzker 36.0	poll arch
5/24/2018	Victory Research	0.81	—(D+1.2)	1208	±2.8	unknown	3 scored polls2908d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2908d old Poll was fielded 2908 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bruce Rauner 32.0 · J. B. Pritzker 47.0	poll arch
4/21/2018	Victory Research	0.81	—(D+1.2)	1208	±2.8	unknown	3 scored polls2941d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2941d old Poll was fielded 2941 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bruce Rauner 31.0 · J. B. Pritzker 49.0	poll arch
3/23/2018	Ogden & Fry	1.00	—	667	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2970d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2970d old Poll was fielded 2970 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 28.0 · J. B. Pritzker 46.0	poll arch
2/25/2018	Southern Illinois University	1.00	—	1001	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls2996d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2996d old Poll was fielded 2996 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 35.0 · J. B. Pritzker 50.0	poll arch
2/25/2018	Paul Simon Institute	1.00	—	1001	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls2996d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2996d old Poll was fielded 2996 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 34.0 · Daniel Biss 48.0	poll arch
2/6/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Biss)	1.00	—	600	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls3015d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3015d old Poll was fielded 3015 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 35.0 · J. B. Pritzker 48.0	poll arch
2/6/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Biss)	1.00	—	600	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls3015d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3015d old Poll was fielded 3015 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 30.0 · Daniel Biss 47.0	poll arch
10/2/2017	Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)	1.00	—	517	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3142d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3142d old Poll was fielded 3142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 30.0 · J. B. Pritzker 47.0	poll arch
10/2/2017	Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)	1.00	—	517	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3142d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3142d old Poll was fielded 3142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeanne Ives 20.0 · J. B. Pritzker 40.0	poll arch
10/2/2017	Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)	1.00	—	517	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3142d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3142d old Poll was fielded 3142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 28.0 · Chris Kennedy 41.0	poll arch
10/2/2017	Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)	1.00	—	517	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3142d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3142d old Poll was fielded 3142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kyle McCarter 22.0 · J. B. Pritzker 42.0	poll arch
10/2/2017	Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)	1.00	—	517	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3142d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3142d old Poll was fielded 3142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kyle McCarter 21.0 · Chris Kennedy 42.0	poll arch
10/2/2017	Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)	1.00	—	517	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3142d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3142d old Poll was fielded 3142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Dan Proft 25.0 · J. B. Pritzker 42.0	poll arch
10/2/2017	Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)	1.00	—	517	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3142d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3142d old Poll was fielded 3142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Dan Proft 23.0 · Chris Kennedy 43.0	poll arch
10/2/2017	Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)	1.00	—	517	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3142d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3142d old Poll was fielded 3142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Brady 26.0 · J. B. Pritzker 42.0	poll arch
10/2/2017	Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)	1.00	—	517	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3142d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3142d old Poll was fielded 3142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Brady 25.0 · Chris Kennedy 42.0	poll arch
10/2/2017	Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)	1.00	—	517	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3142d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3142d old Poll was fielded 3142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeanne Ives 19.0 · Chris Kennedy 38.0	poll arch
7/20/2017	Normington Petts (D-DGA)	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3216d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3216d old Poll was fielded 3216 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 37.0	poll arch
2/20/2017	Anzalone Liszt Grove	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3366d old Poll was fielded 3366 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 32.0	poll arch
1/5/2017	Normington Petts (D-DGA)	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3412d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3412d old Poll was fielded 3412 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 35.0	poll arch
7/26/2016	We Ask America	1.00	—	824	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3575d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3575d old Poll was fielded 3575 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bruce Rauner 35.0 · Dick Durbin 44.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	Oct 26	—	+9.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Likely D	Nov 4	—	+9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (11/3/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean D via pvi