Races · Governor · 2018 · ID
Governor · open seat

Paulette Jordan vs Brad Little

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Safe R — · 4 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2744d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 4 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 4 results

4 of 4 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/4/2018Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)838—unknown
historical bias D+3.7pt2744d old+1
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2744d old
    Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Brad Little 55.0 · Paulette Jordan 39.0 · Bev Boeck 3.0pollarch
8/5/2018Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)1.00—826±3.2unknown
no scored polls2835d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2835d old
    Poll was fielded 2835 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Brad Little 36.0 · Paulette Jordan 28.0pollarch
7/15/2018Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)1.00—1061±2.8unknown
no scored polls2856d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2856d old
    Poll was fielded 2856 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Brad Little 38.0 · Paulette Jordan 28.0pollarch
7/9/2018Dan Jones & Associates1.00—606±4.0unknown
no scored polls2862d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2862d old
    Poll was fielded 2862 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Brad Little 43.0 · Paulette Jordan 31.0 · Bev Boeck 5.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 87 total
Brad Little (R)
54 endorsements · source
Elected officials (14)
  • Ben Ysursa — former Idaho secretary of state
  • Brent Hill — president pro tempore of the Idaho Senate
  • Butch Otter — governor of Idaho [ 36 ]
  • Challis, Idaho — t, mayor of Challis, Idaho [ 5 ]
  • Chubbuck, Idaho — mayor of Chubbuck, Idaho [ 5 ] [ 23 ]
  • Jack Riggs — former lieutenant governor of Idaho [ 38 ]
  • Jim Risch — m Risch (also former governor of Idaho) [ 37 ]
  • Meridian, Idaho — mayor of Meridian, Idaho [ 22 ]
  • Mitt Romney — former governor of Massachusetts and Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 [ 20 ]
  • Nezperce, Idaho — mayor of Nezperce, Idaho [ 5 ]
  • Osburn, Idaho — ay, mayor of Osburn, Idaho [ 5 ]
  • Phil Batt — former governor of Idaho [ 35 ]
  • Rigby, Idaho — dson, mayor of Rigby, Idaho [ 5 ]
  • Scott Bedke — Speaker of the Idaho House of Representatives
Newspapers (2)
  • The Idaho Press-Tribune — [ 43 ]
  • Times-News — [ 45 ]
Organizations / unions (9)
  • Idaho Republican Party — Republican Party National Committeeman [ 21 ]
  • National Federation of Independent Business — [ 53 ]
  • [ 27 ] — t Freedom PAC [ 27 ]
  • [ 33 ] — Policy Alliance of Idaho [ 33 ]
  • [ 47 ] — Cattle Association [ 47 ]
  • [ 48 ] — Grain Producers Association [ 48 ]
  • [ 49 ] — Loggers PAC [ 49 ]
  • [ 50 ] — Medical Association [ 50 ]
  • [ 52 ] — State Dental Association [ 52 ]
Individuals / celebrities (2)
  • Candace Owens — communications director for Turning Point USA [ 24 ]
  • Charlie Kirk — founder and executive director of Turning Point USA [ 24 ]
Other (27)
  • 30 — 40%
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • Brandon Woolf — Idaho state controller
  • Cliff Bayer — senators: Cliff Bayer , Lori Den Hartog , Dean Mortimer , Tony Potts , Mary Souza , Steve Vick
  • David Bossie — deputy campaign manager for Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign [ 30 ]
  • Denton Darrington — e senators: Denton Darrington [ 41 ] and Jim Hammond [ 39 ]
  • Dick Heller — [ 31 ]
  • George Eskridge — ate representatives: George Eskridge , [ 41 ] Lee Gagner, [ 39 ] and Bert Stevenson [ 41 ]
  • Hagerman, Idaho — r of Hagerman, Idaho [ 5 ]
  • Idaho Statesman — [ 44 ]
  • Ken Andrus — ho state representatives: Ken Andrus , [ 29 ] Gayle Batt , Reed DeMordaunt , Steve Kren, Kathleen Sims , and JoAn Wood
  • Kristin Armstrong — Olympic gold medalist [ 25 ]
  • Megan Blanksma — presentatives: Megan Blanksma , [ 39 ] Stephen Hartgen , [ 40 ] Ryan Kerby, [ 41 ] and Eric Redman
  • Middleton, Idaho — yor of Middleton, Idaho [ 5 ]
  • Mike Simpson — Idaho
  • Patti Anne Lodge — tors: Patti Anne Lodge [ 39 ] and Jeff Siddoway
  • Rand Paul — Kentucky [ 27 ]
  • Ted Cruz — Texas [ 26 ]
  • Tyler Ricks — Idaho Young Republicans treasurer and Ada GOP precinct committeeman
  • [ 28 ] — Idaho state senators: Rod Beck [ 28 ] and Sheryl Nuxoll
  • [ 32 ] — Pacific Chapter of Associated Builders and Contractors (IPC-ABC) [ 32 ]
  • [ 34 ] — Chooses Life [ 34 ]
  • [ 42 ] — Mountain Express [ 42 ]
  • [ 46 ] — Associated General Contractors [ 46 ]
  • [ 51 ] — Realtors [ 51 ]
  • [ 54 ] — sional Fire Fighters of Idaho [ 54 ]
Paulette Jordan (D)
33 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Elfreda Higgins — Garden City councilwoman (and former Idaho state representative) [ 83 ]
  • Holli Woodings — Boise City Councilwoman (and former state representative) [ 65 ]
Newspapers (2)
  • The Idaho Press-Tribune — [ 43 ]
  • Times-News — [ 45 ]
Organizations / unions (3)
  • Conservation Voters for Idaho — [ 87 ]
  • Idaho Democratic Party — airman of the Idaho Democratic Party [ 65 ]
  • International Union of Painters and Allied Trades — [ 90 ]
Individuals / celebrities (2)
  • Cher — singer and actress [ 89 ]
  • Van Jones — CNN host [ 90 ]
Other (24)
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • Ben Nighthorse Campbell — Colorado (Republican) [ 88 ]
  • Cathy Silak — former Idaho Supreme Court justice [ 66 ]
  • Cherie Buckner-Webb — s: Cherie Buckner-Webb , [ 67 ] Grant Burgoyne , [ 68 ] Maryanne Jordan , [ 69 ] Mark Nye , [ 70 ] and Janie Ward-Engelking [ 69 ]
  • Coeur d'Alene — former Coeur d'Alene city councilman [ 84 ]
  • Democracy for America — [ 91 ]
  • Indivisible
  • Jim Dean — chair, Democracy for America [ 90 ]
  • John Peavey — o state senators: John Peavey
  • Larry LaRocco — LaRocco , Walt Minnick , and Richard Stallings [ 65 ]
  • Lewiston — ler, Lewiston city councilwoman [ 85 ]
  • Mat Erpelding — Idaho House minority leader [ 67 ]
  • Our Revolution — [ 92 ]
  • Ron Beitelspacher — e senators: Ron Beitelspacher , [ 65 ] Mike Blackbird, [ 65 ] Gail Bray, [ 73 ] Mike Burkett , [ 74 ] Mary Lou Reed [ 75 ]
  • Sue Chew — ate representatives: Sue Chew , [ 69 ] Phylis King , [ 71 ] Hy Kloc , [ 72 ] John McCrostie , [ 71 ] Elaine Smith , [ 65 ] and Melissa Wintrow [ 67 ]
  • [ 65 ] — Richardson, former U.S. Attorney for Idaho [ 65 ]
  • [ 81 ] — Boyer, Idaho national committeewoman [ 81 ]
  • [ 82 ] — arn, Coeur d'Alene school board member [ 82 ]
  • [ 85 ] — n Muchow, board member of the Greater Boise Auditorium District [ 85 ]
  • [ 86 ] — ppenheimer, Boise School board member [ 86 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Oct 26 — -18.0 —
FiveThirtyEight Safe R Nov 5 — -18.0 —
RealClearPolitics Safe R Nov 4 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Nov 5 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 91 months ago (11/4/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi