Races · Governor · 2018 · IA

Governor · open seat

Fred Hubbell vs Kim Reynolds

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Lean R — · 12 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2744d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 12 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R

lean-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 12 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:12 of 12 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/4/2018	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	961	—	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt2744d old+1 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Kim Reynolds 46.0 · Fred Hubbell 49.0 · Jake Porter 3.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	Selzer & Company	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2746d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kim Reynolds 44.0 · Fred Hubbell 46.0 · Jake Porter 2.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1462	±2.7	unknown	2747d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Kim Reynolds 49.0 · Fred Hubbell 45.0	poll arch
10/22/2018	University of Iowa	1.00	—	452	—	unknown	no scored polls2757d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2757d old Poll was fielded 2757 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kim Reynolds 40.0 · Fred Hubbell 48.0	poll arch
9/20/2018	Selzer & Company	1.00	—	555	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls2789d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2789d old Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kim Reynolds 41.0 · Fred Hubbell 43.0 · Jake Porter 7.0	poll arch
9/8/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	±3.2	unknown	2801d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2801d old Poll was fielded 2801 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Kim Reynolds 31.0 · Fred Hubbell 36.0	poll arch
1/31/2018	Selzer & Company	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3021d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3021d old Poll was fielded 3021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kim Reynolds 42.0 · Fred Hubbell 37.0	poll arch
1/31/2018	Selzer & Company	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3021d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3021d old Poll was fielded 3021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kim Reynolds 41.0 · Nate Boulton 37.0	poll arch
1/31/2018	Selzer & Company	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3021d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3021d old Poll was fielded 3021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kim Reynolds 44.0 · Cathy Glasson 31.0	poll arch
1/31/2018	Selzer & Company	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3021d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3021d old Poll was fielded 3021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kim Reynolds 41.0 · John Norris 30.0	poll arch
1/31/2018	Selzer & Company	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3021d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3021d old Poll was fielded 3021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kim Reynolds 42.0 · Andy McGuire 30.0	poll arch
6/21/2017	20/20 Insights (D-Mowrer)	1.00	—	526	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls3245d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3245d old Poll was fielded 3245 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kim Reynolds 44.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 2 total

Kim Reynolds (R)

2 endorsements · source

Elected officials (1)

George W. Bush — 43rd President of the United States (2001–2009) [ 14 ]

Newspapers (1)

Sioux City Journal — [ 13 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Oct 26	—	0.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—
RealClearPolitics	Tossup	Nov 4	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 91 months ago (11/4/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean R via pvi