Races · Governor · 2018 · CT

Governor · open seat

Ned Lamont vs Bob Stefanowski

← CO Governor FL Governor →

Lean D — · 15 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2747d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 15 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 15 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:15 of 15 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/1/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	681	±3.8	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2747d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Ned Lamont 46.0 · Bob Stefanowski 37.0 · Oz Griebel 9.0	poll arch
10/31/2018	Sacred Heart University	1.00	—	500	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls2748d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ned Lamont 38.0 · Bob Stefanowski 40.0 · Oz Griebel 9.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	780	±3.7	unknown	2750d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Ned Lamont 46.0 · Bob Stefanowski 39.0 · Oz Griebel 10.0	poll arch
10/28/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1201	±4.0	unknown	2751d oldtracks editorial consensus 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ned Lamont 47.0 · Bob Stefanowski 43.0 · Oz Griebel 7.0	poll arch
10/17/2018	Sacred Heart University	1.00	—	501	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls2762d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2762d old Poll was fielded 2762 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ned Lamont 40.0 · Bob Stefanowski 36.0 · Oz Griebel 8.0	poll arch
10/9/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Change Course CT PAC)	1.00	—	828	—	unknown	no scored polls2770d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2770d old Poll was fielded 2770 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ned Lamont 43.0 · Bob Stefanowski 38.0	poll arch
10/8/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	767	±5.0	unknown	2771d oldtracks editorial consensus 2771d old Poll was fielded 2771 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ned Lamont 47.0 · Bob Stefanowski 39.0 · Oz Griebel 11.0	poll arch
9/17/2018	Sacred Heart University	1.00	—	501	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls2792d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2792d old Poll was fielded 2792 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ned Lamont 43.0 · Bob Stefanowski 37.0	poll arch
8/27/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	606	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2813d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2813d old Poll was fielded 2813 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Ned Lamont 49.0 · Bob Stefanowski 40.0	poll arch
8/21/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1029	±3.9	unknown	2819d oldtracks editorial consensus 2819d old Poll was fielded 2819 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ned Lamont 46.0 · Bob Stefanowski 33.0 · Oz Griebel 4.0	poll arch
8/21/2018	Sacred Heart University	1.00	—	502	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls2819d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2819d old Poll was fielded 2819 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ned Lamont 41.0 · Bob Stefanowski 37.0	poll arch
5/5/2018	Tremont Public Advisors	1.00	—	550	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2927d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2927d old Poll was fielded 2927 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ned Lamont 50.0 · Mark Boughton 40.0	poll arch
5/5/2018	Tremont Public Advisors	1.00	—	550	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2927d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2927d old Poll was fielded 2927 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ned Lamont 44.0 · Erin Stewart 46.0	poll arch
5/5/2018	Tremont Public Advisors	1.00	—	550	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2927d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2927d old Poll was fielded 2927 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Susan Bysiewicz 40.0 · Erin Stewart 50.0	poll arch
5/5/2018	Tremont Public Advisors	1.00	—	550	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2927d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2927d old Poll was fielded 2927 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Susan Bysiewicz 42.0 · Mark Boughton 47.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Oct 26	—	0.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Tossup	Nov 4	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (11/1/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean D via pvi