Races · Governor · 2018 · CO

Governor · open seat

Jared Polis vs Walker Stapleton

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Lean D — · 15 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2749d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 15 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 15 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:15 of 15 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/30/2018	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	500	±4.4	unknown	2749d old 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jared Polis 45.0 · Walker Stapleton 40.0 · Scott Helker 3.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Martin Campaigns	1.00	—	517	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls2749d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jared Polis 50.0 · Walker Stapleton 42.0 · Scott Helker 4.0	poll arch
10/17/2018	University of Colorado/YouGov	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2762d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2762d old Poll was fielded 2762 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jared Polis 54.0 · Walker Stapleton 42.0 · Scott Helker 3.0	poll arch
10/10/2018	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	500	±4.4	unknown	2769d old 2769d old Poll was fielded 2769 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jared Polis 47.0 · Walker Stapleton 40.0 · Scott Helker 4.0	poll arch
9/20/2018	Keating Research/Magellan Strategies	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2789d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2789d old Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jared Polis 47.0 · Walker Stapleton 40.0 · Scott Helker 1.0	poll arch
9/19/2018	Kaiser Family Foundation/CO Health Foundation/SSRS	1.00	—	1585	—	unknown	no scored polls2790d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2790d old Poll was fielded 2790 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,585 Sample size of 1,585 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Jared Polis 44.0 · Walker Stapleton 33.0	poll arch
6/28/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-CO Democratic Party)	1.00	—	608	—	unknown	no scored polls2873d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2873d old Poll was fielded 2873 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jared Polis 47.0 · Walker Stapleton 40.0	poll arch
6/6/2018	Strategies 360	1.13	—(D+2.5)	500	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls2895d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2895d old Poll was fielded 2895 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jared Polis 42.0 · Walker Stapleton 37.0	poll arch
6/6/2018	Strategies 360	1.13	—(D+2.5)	500	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls2895d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2895d old Poll was fielded 2895 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Cary Kennedy 43.0 · Walker Stapleton 38.0	poll arch
12/5/2017	Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)	1.00	—	770	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3078d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3078d old Poll was fielded 3078 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jared Polis 46.0 · Tom Tancredo 38.0	poll arch
12/5/2017	Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)	1.00	—	770	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3078d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3078d old Poll was fielded 3078 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Cary Kennedy 45.0 · Tom Tancredo 38.0	poll arch
12/5/2017	Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)	1.00	—	770	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3078d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3078d old Poll was fielded 3078 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Johnston 43.0 · Tom Tancredo 39.0	poll arch
12/5/2017	Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)	1.00	—	770	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3078d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3078d old Poll was fielded 3078 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Donna Lynne 43.0 · Tom Tancredo 38.0	poll arch
11/13/2017	Keating Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3100d old Poll was fielded 3100 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Cary Kennedy 50.0 · Tom Tancredo 34.0	poll arch
9/28/2017	Braynard Group	1.00	R	1000	±3.2	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3146d old Poll was fielded 3146 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jared Polis 25.0 · Tom Tancredo 25.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean D	Oct 26	—	+3.5	—
FiveThirtyEight	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Lean D	Nov 4	—	+3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/30/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean D via pvi