Races · Governor · 2018 · AR
Governor · open seat

Jared Henderson vs Asa Hutchinson

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Safe R — · 4 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2751d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 4 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 4 results

4 of 4 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/28/2018University of Arkansas0.63—(D+6.3)618±3.9unknown
3 scored polls2751d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2751d old
    Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Asa Hutchinson 59.0 · Jared Henderson 35.0pollarch
10/19/2018Hendrix College1.00—528±4.3unknown
no scored polls2760d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2760d old
    Poll was fielded 2760 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Asa Hutchinson 60.0 · Jared Henderson 24.0 · Mark West 5.0pollarch
9/7/2018Hendrix College1.00—1701±2.4unknown
no scored polls2802d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2802d old
    Poll was fielded 2802 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=1,701
    Sample size of 1,701 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Asa Hutchinson 60.0 · Jared Henderson 25.0 · Mark West 6.0pollarch
3/24/2018Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt2969d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 2969d old
    Poll was fielded 2969 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Asa Hutchinson 63.0 · Jared Henderson 24.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 7 total
Asa Hutchinson (R)
7 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States [ 7 ]
Newspapers (1)
  • Arkansas Democrat-Gazette — [ 9 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
  • National Rifle Association of America — [ 8 ]
Other (4)
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Oct 26 — -18.0 —
FiveThirtyEight Safe R Nov 5 — -18.0 —
RealClearPolitics Safe R Nov 4 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Nov 5 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/28/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi