Races · Governor · 2018 · AZ

Governor · open seat

David Garcia vs Doug Ducey

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Tilt R — · 43 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2743d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 43 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 43 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:43 of 43 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/5/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2743d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2743d old Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Doug Ducey 53.0 · David Garcia 39.0	poll arch
11/4/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2744d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Doug Ducey 55.0 · David Garcia 37.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	758	±3.7	unknown	2745d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Doug Ducey 55.0 · David Garcia 40.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2745d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Doug Ducey 57.0 · David Garcia 36.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	±4.6	unknown	2745d oldbias D+1.5pt+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 54.0 · David Garcia 39.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2746d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Doug Ducey 56.0 · David Garcia 37.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1165	±2.9	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2746d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Doug Ducey 53.0 · David Garcia 40.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2747d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Doug Ducey 57.0 · David Garcia 36.0	poll arch
10/31/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2748d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Doug Ducey 54.0 · David Garcia 37.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	677	±3.7	unknown	2749d oldtracks editorial consensus 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 54.0 · David Garcia 46.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	1400	±2.6	unknown	2749d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Doug Ducey 57.0 · David Garcia 35.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	643	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2750d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Doug Ducey 55.0 · David Garcia 37.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	702	±4.4	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2750d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Doug Ducey 52.0 · David Garcia 45.0	poll arch
10/28/2018	HighGround Public Affairs	0.68	—(R+0.9)	400	±4.9	unknown	3 scored polls2751d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 55.0 · David Garcia 35.0 · Angel Torres 4.0	poll arch
10/27/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	506	±5.4	LV	bias D+2.4pt2752d old+2 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 54.0 · David Garcia 40.0 · Angel Torres 5.0	poll arch
10/26/2018	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	972	±4.1	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt2753d old historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 52.0 · David Garcia 41.0	poll arch
10/26/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	799	±4.0	unknown	2753d oldtracks editorial consensus 2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 57.0 · David Garcia 37.0	poll arch
10/23/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2756d oldtracks editorial consensus 2756d old Poll was fielded 2756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 57.0 · David Garcia 39.0 · Angel Torres 1.0	poll arch
10/10/2018	Change Research (D-Garcia)	1.00	—	783	—	unknown	no scored polls2769d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2769d old Poll was fielded 2769 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 47.0 · David Garcia 40.0	poll arch
10/3/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2776d oldtracks editorial consensus 2776d old Poll was fielded 2776 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 54.0 · David Garcia 37.0 · Angel Torres 2.0	poll arch
10/3/2018	Data Orbital	1.42	neutral(R+0.2)	550	±4.2	unknown	2776d oldbias R+0.2pt+1 2776d old Poll was fielded 2776 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.2pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.2pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 52.0 · David Garcia 34.0 · Angel Torres 2.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	716	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2777d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Doug Ducey 55.0 · David Garcia 37.0	poll arch
10/1/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	702	±3.5	unknown	2778d oldtracks editorial consensus 2778d old Poll was fielded 2778 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 57.0 · David Garcia 43.0	poll arch
9/30/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2779d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2779d old Poll was fielded 2779 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 50.0 · David Garcia 38.0 · Angel Torres 2.0	poll arch
9/25/2018	Latino Decisions	1.00	—	463	—	LV	no scored polls2784d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2784d old Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Doug Ducey 45.0 · David Garcia 40.0	poll arch
9/21/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	650	±4.4	unknown	2788d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2788d old Poll was fielded 2788 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Doug Ducey 42.0 · David Garcia 38.0	poll arch
9/20/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	564	±4.7	LV	bias D+2.4pt2789d old+2 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2789d old Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 49.0 · David Garcia 39.0 · Angel Torres 6.0	poll arch
9/15/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	761	±4.3	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2794d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2794d old Poll was fielded 2794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Doug Ducey 49.0 · David Garcia 46.0	poll arch
9/14/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1016	±4.0	unknown	2795d oldtracks editorial consensus 2795d old Poll was fielded 2795 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 51.0 · David Garcia 39.0	poll arch
9/13/2018	TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ)	1.00	—	800	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2796d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 49.0 · David Garcia 48.0	poll arch
9/11/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	710	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2798d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2798d old Poll was fielded 2798 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Doug Ducey 51.0 · David Garcia 40.0	poll arch
9/7/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	882	±3.3	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2802d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2802d old Poll was fielded 2802 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Doug Ducey 48.0 · David Garcia 44.0	poll arch
9/6/2018	Data Orbital	1.42	neutral(R+0.2)	550	±4.2	unknown	2803d oldbias R+0.2pt+1 2803d old Poll was fielded 2803 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.2pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.2pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 49.0 · David Garcia 41.0	poll arch
8/31/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	1.00	—	554	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls2809d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2809d old Poll was fielded 2809 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 44.0 · David Garcia 43.0	poll arch
7/9/2018	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	1641	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt2862d old+2 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 2862d old Poll was fielded 2862 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,641 Sample size of 1,641 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 34.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	925	±3.2	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2869d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Doug Ducey 41.0 · David Garcia 42.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	925	±3.2	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2869d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Doug Ducey 42.0 · Steve Farley 39.0	poll arch
3/5/2018	GQR Research (D-Farley)	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2988d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2988d old Poll was fielded 2988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 49.0 · Steve Farley 44.0	poll arch
1/7/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	1.00	—	735	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3045d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3045d old Poll was fielded 3045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 42.0 · David Garcia 43.0	poll arch
1/7/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	1.00	—	735	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3045d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3045d old Poll was fielded 3045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 42.0 · Steve Farley 39.0	poll arch
6/8/2017	Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	1.00	—	1020	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls3258d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3258d old Poll was fielded 3258 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 42.0 · David Garcia 44.0	poll arch
6/8/2017	Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	1.00	—	1020	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls3258d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3258d old Poll was fielded 3258 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 42.0 · Steve Farley 40.0	poll arch
5/15/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	896	±3.3	unknown	3647d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3647d old Poll was fielded 3647 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Doug Ducey 43.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 36.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 31 total

Doug Ducey (R)

31 endorsements · source

Elected officials (5)

Donald Trump — 45th President of the United States [ 30 ]
Mike Pence — 48th Vice President of the United States [ 29 ]
Nogales — yle, Nogales mayor [ 26 ]
Robert Uribe — Douglas mayor [ 26 ]
San Luis — Sanchez, San Luis mayor [ 26 ]

Newspapers (4)

Arizona Daily Star — [ 21 ]
Casa Grande Dispatch — [ 23 ]
The Daily Courier (Prescott, Arizona) — [ 24 ]
Today's News-Herald (Lake Havasu City, Arizona) — [ 25 ]

Organizations / unions (5)

National Border Patrol Council — [ 17 ]
National Federation of Independent Business — [ 18 ]
[ 10 ] — a Police Association [ 10 ]
[ 11 ] — a State Troopers Association [ 11 ]
[ 7 ] — na Association of Realtors [ 7 ]

Other (17)

50 — 60%
60 — 70%
70 — 80%
Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry — [ 8 ]
Cindy McCain — philanthropist and businesswoman [ 28 ]
Fraternal Order of Police — f Police [ 9 ]
Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce — [ 14 ]
Pima County — Pima County Sheriff [ 27 ]
Pinal County — inal County Sheriff [ 27 ]
The Arizona Republic — [ 22 ]
Yavapai County — Yavapai County Sheriff [ 27 ]
[ 12 ] — er Chamber of Commerce [ 12 ]
[ 13 ] — t Chamber of Commerce [ 13 ]
[ 15 ] — aff Chamber of Commerce [ 15 ]
[ 16 ] — hamber of Commerce [ 16 ]
[ 19 ] — sional Fire Fighters of Arizona [ 19 ]
[ 20 ] — Metro Chamber [ 20 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Oct 26	—	-9.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Likely R	Nov 4	—	-9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Nov 5	—	-9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 91 months ago (11/5/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi