Races · Governor · 2018 · AL
Governor · open seat

Walt Maddox vs Kay Ivey

← AK Governor AR Governor →
Safe R — · 4 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2785d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 4 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 4 results

4 of 4 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
9/24/2018SurveyMonkey1.00—(D+6.1)1254±3.8unknown
historical bias D+6.1pt2785d old+1
  • historical bias D+6.1pt
    Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2785d old
    Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Kay Ivey 51.0 · Walt Maddox 26.0pollarch
9/22/2018Research Consultants (R-FarmPAC)1.00—316±5.5unknown
no scored pollsn=316+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • n=316
    Sample size of 316 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.5pt — wider than typical.
  • 2787d old
    Poll was fielded 2787 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Kay Ivey 58.0 · Walt Maddox 38.0pollarch
7/25/2018Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)1027±3.1unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned2846d old+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 2846d old
    Poll was fielded 2846 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Kay Ivey 56.0 · Walt Maddox 42.0pollarch
5/2/2018A.L.G. Research1.00—601±4.0unknown
no scored polls2930d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2930d old
    Poll was fielded 2930 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Kay Ivey 59.0 · Walt Maddox 36.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 143 total
Kay Ivey (R)
61 endorsements · source
Elected officials (37)
  • Del Marsh — . Del Marsh . (R-Anniston), president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate
  • Greg Reed — . Greg Reed (R-Jasper), Majority Leader of the Alabama Senate
  • Mike Huckabee — former governor of Arkansas [ 38 ]
  • Rep. Alan Baker (R — Brewton)
  • Rep. Alan Booth (R — Troy)
  • Rep. Alan Harper (R — Northport)
  • Rep. Allen Treadaway (R — Morris)
  • Rep. Becky Nordgren (R — Gadsden)
  • Rep. Bill Poole (R — Tuscaloosa)
  • Rep. Bob Fincher (R — Woodland)
  • Rep. Chris Blackshear (R — Phenix City)
  • Rep. Chris Pringle (R — Mobile)
  • Rep. Chris Sells (R — Evergreen)
  • Rep. Corley Ellis (R — Columbiana)
  • Rep. Danny Crawford (R — Athens)
  • Rep. Danny Garrett (R — Trussville)
  • Rep. David Faulkner (R — Mountain Brook)
  • Rep. David Standridge (R — Hayden)
  • Rep. Donnie Chesteen (R — Geneva)
  • Rep. Joe Faust (R — Fairhope)
  • Rep. Joe Lovvorn (R — Auburn)
  • Rep. K.L. Brown (R — Jacksonville)
  • Rep. Ken Johnson (R — Moulton)
  • Rep. Kerry Rich (R — Guntersville)
  • Rep. Lynn Greer (R — Rogersville)
  • Rep. Nathaniel Ledbetter (R — Rainsville)
  • Rep. Paul Lee (R — Dothan)
  • Rep. Phillip Pettus (R — Killen)
  • Rep. Randall Shedd (R — Cullman)
  • Rep. Randy Wood (R — Anniston)
  • Rep. Reed Ingram (R — Montgomery)
  • Rep. Steve Clouse (R — Ozark)
  • Rep. Steve Hurst (R — Munford)
  • Rep. Steve McMillan (R — Bay Minette)
  • Rep. Terri Collins (R — Decatur)
  • State Sen. Greg Albritton (R — Range)
  • [ 40 ] — Lee George, former Morgan County commissioner and candidate for governor in 2018 [ 40 ]
Organizations / unions (2)
  • Alabama Farmers Federation
  • Medical Properties Trust — d CEO of Medical Properties Trust [ 39 ]
Individuals / celebrities (4)
  • Bill "Bubba" Bussey — radio host
  • Dale Jackson — radio host
  • Rick Burgess — radio host
  • [ 39 ] — Cooper, director of Alabama Power Co. [ 39 ]
Other (18)
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • >90%
  • Alabama Republican Assembly
  • Arthur Orr — Arthur Orr (R-Decatur)
  • BamaCarry — Alabama's largest Second Amendment rights group
  • Cam Ward — n. Cam Ward (R-Alabaster)
  • Clay Scofield — ay Scofield (R-Guntersville)
  • Clyde Chambliss — e Chambliss (R-Prattville)
  • Jabo Waggoner — bo Waggoner (R-Vestavia Hills)
  • Jim McClendon — m McClendon (R-Springville)
  • Jimmy Holley — immy Holley (R-Elba)
  • Paul Sanford — aul Sanford (R-Huntsville)
  • Phil Williams — il Williams (R-Rainbow City)
  • Tim Melson — Tim Melson (R-Florence)
  • Tommy Tuberville — former Auburn Tigers head football coach [ 41 ]
Walt Maddox (D)
82 endorsements · source
Elected officials (26)
  • Alabama Education Association — er Alabama Education Association president [ 76 ]
  • Artis J. McCampbell — Alabama State Representative [ 69 ]
  • Bobby Singleton — Alabama state senator [ 69 ]
  • Brandon Hamner — president of United Steelworkers Local 351
  • Christopher J. England — Alabama state representative [ 71 ]
  • Darrio Melton — mayor of Selma, Alabama [ 73 ]
  • Doug Jones — U.S. senator (D-AL) [ 72 ]
  • Jeni Tanner — Jordan, former president of the Greater Birmingham chapter of the National Organization For Women of Birmingham, Alabama
  • Jim Page — president of West Alabama Chamber of Commerce
  • John Rogers — Alabama state representative [ 69 ]
  • Linda Coleman-Madison — Alabama state senator [ 69 ]
  • Mark Johnston — former candidate for governor of Alabama
  • Napoleon Bracy Jr. — Alabama state representative [ 67 ]
  • Parker Griffith — former U.S. representative , former candidate for governor in 2014
  • Patricia Todd — Alabama state representative; first openly gay elected official in Alabama [ 69 ]
  • Quincy Hall — Equality Alabama Board of Directors president
  • Randall Woodfin — mayor of Birmingham, Alabama [ 69 ]
  • Roger Bedford Jr. — former Alabama state senator 1994–2014 [ 66 ]
  • Ron Sparks — former Alabama Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries , candidate for governor of Alabama in 2010
  • Sue Bell Cobb — former candidate for governor of Alabama and former Chief Justice of Alabama
  • Terri Sewell — U.S. representative (AL-7)
  • [ 62 ] — arrell, former president of the Alabama State Nurses Association [ 62 ]
  • [ 63 ] — Jones, president of Crowne Healthcare [ 63 ]
  • [ 69 ] — Lawrence, Alabama state representative [ 69 ]
  • [ 75 ] — uillen, president of IBEW 558 [ 75 ]
  • [ 77 ] — iley, Alabama AFL-CIO president [ 77 ]
Organizations / unions (6)
  • Alabama Progressive Democratic Alliance
  • Frannie James — Jefferson County Democratic Party executive director
  • Pat Edington — former vice chair of the Alabama Democratic Party
  • United Mine Workers — [ 69 ]
  • [ 79 ] — a New South Alliance [ 79 ]
  • [ 80 ] — labama AFL-CIO [ 80 ]
Individuals / celebrities (8)
  • Alex McDaniel — editorial director of Oxford Eagle and Oxford Magazine
  • Bev Cowling — director of Madison County Our Revolution of Madison County, Alabama
  • John A. Pickens — former executive director of Alabama Appleseed Center
  • Kelley Parris — director of the Children's Board of Hillsborough County
  • Lonnie Malone — executive director of the Effective Family Inc.
  • Mia Raven — director of Power House of Montgomery, Alabama
  • University of Alabama — thor and professor of Political Science at University of Alabama [ 60 ]
  • [ 65 ] — Shum, director of Alabama HIPPY [ 65 ]
Other (42)
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • <40%
  • >90%
  • Alabama Democratic Conference — [ 69 ]
  • Alabama Internet Democrats
  • Alabama United
  • Anthony Daniels — Minority Leader of the Alabama House of Representatives [ 70 ]
  • Atmore, Alabama — more, Alabama councilwoman [ 74 ]
  • Attalla, Alabama — or of Attalla, Alabama
  • Bob Vance — circuit court judge
  • Cortney Brown — businesswoman of Huntsville, Alabama
  • Elliot Maisel — chairman of the Mobile Airport Authority
  • Jack Jacobs — UMWA chairman
  • James T. Stephens — chairman of EBSCO Industries
  • John Harrison — minister and human rights advocate of Birmingham, Alabama
  • Josh Coleman — Central Alabama Pride
  • Lilly Ledbetter — [ 64 ]
  • MSNBC — rd Allen Smith, MSNBC contributor and former staffer at the Department of Veteran Affairs [ 78 ]
  • Madison County Our Revolution of Madison County — Alabama
  • Madison County, Alabama — ounty, Alabama commissioner
  • Merika Coleman — Assistant Minority Leader of the Alabama House of Representatives [ 68 ]
  • Miah Jackson — councilwoman for Selma, Alabama
  • Millions for Medicare of Alabama
  • Power House of Montgomery — Alabama
  • RWDSU
  • Sarah Patterson — former head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide women's gymnastics team
  • Steven Reed — Montgomery County probate judge
  • Sue Thompson — activist
  • The Athletic — n, reporter for The Athletic
  • The Crimson White — [ 81 ]
  • Thomas Parchman III — candidate for Jefferson County Circuit Clerk
  • Tony Cherry — Choctaw county commissioner
  • UAB — t Thomas, UAB track and field head coach
  • University of Alabama Law School — University of Alabama Law School
  • Wade Chapman — student activist
  • Westover, Alabama — ver, Alabama councilwoman
  • Zac McCrary — Democratic pollster
  • [ 61 ] — e Durham, former CEO of YMCA Birmingham [ 61 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Oct 26 — -18.0 —
FiveThirtyEight Safe R Nov 5 — -18.0 —
RealClearPolitics Safe R Nov 4 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Nov 5 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 93 months ago (9/24/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi