Races · Governor · 2018 · AK

Governor · open seat

Mark Begich vs Mike Dunleavy

AL Governor →

Likely R — · 27 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2750d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 27 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 27 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:27 of 27 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/29/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2750d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 8.0 · Mike Dunleavy 43.0 · Mark Begich 42.0 · Billy Toien 3.0	poll arch
10/22/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2757d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2757d old Poll was fielded 2757 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 5.0 · Mike Dunleavy 48.0 · Mark Begich 44.0	poll arch
10/14/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2765d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2765d old Poll was fielded 2765 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 27.0 · Mike Dunleavy 43.0 · Mark Begich 26.0	poll arch
10/14/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2765d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2765d old Poll was fielded 2765 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Mark Begich 45.0 · Mike Dunleavy 52.0	poll arch
10/14/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2765d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2765d old Poll was fielded 2765 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 45.0 · Mike Dunleavy 52.0	poll arch
10/14/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2765d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2765d old Poll was fielded 2765 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 43.0 · Mark Begich 42.0	poll arch
10/12/2018	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	645	—	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned2767d old+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 2767d old Poll was fielded 2767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Walker 24.0 · Mike Dunleavy 43.0 · Mark Begich 23.0	poll arch
10/6/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2773d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2773d old Poll was fielded 2773 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 27.0 · Mike Dunleavy 47.0 · Mark Begich 23.0	poll arch
10/6/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2773d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2773d old Poll was fielded 2773 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Mark Begich 41.0 · Mike Dunleavy 55.0	poll arch
10/6/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2773d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2773d old Poll was fielded 2773 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 43.0 · Mike Dunleavy 53.0	poll arch
10/6/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2773d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2773d old Poll was fielded 2773 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 42.0 · Mark Begich 41.0	poll arch
9/25/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2784d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2784d old Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 23.0 · Mike Dunleavy 44.0 · Mark Begich 29.0	poll arch
9/25/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2784d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2784d old Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Mark Begich 47.0 · Mike Dunleavy 50.0	poll arch
9/25/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2784d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2784d old Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 41.0 · Mike Dunleavy 54.0	poll arch
9/25/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2784d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2784d old Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 40.0 · Mark Begich 46.0	poll arch
8/16/2018	Harstad Strategic Research	1.00	—	602	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2824d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2824d old Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Walker 26.0 · Mike Dunleavy 36.0 · Mark Begich 24.0	poll arch
8/16/2018	Harstad Strategic Research	1.00	—	602	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2824d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2824d old Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mark Begich 46.0 · Mike Dunleavy 44.0	poll arch
8/16/2018	Harstad Strategic Research	1.00	—	602	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2824d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2824d old Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Walker 47.0 · Mike Dunleavy 43.0	poll arch
6/28/2018	Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker)	1.00	—	800	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls2873d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2873d old Poll was fielded 2873 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Walker 28.0 · Mike Dunleavy 36.0 · Mark Begich 22.0	poll arch
6/26/2018	Harstad Strategic Research	1.00	—	602	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2875d old Poll was fielded 2875 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Walker 28.0 · Mike Dunleavy 32.0 · Mark Begich 28.0	poll arch
6/26/2018	Harstad Strategic Research	1.00	—	602	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2875d old Poll was fielded 2875 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mark Begich 50.0 · Mike Dunleavy 41.0	poll arch
6/26/2018	Harstad Strategic Research	1.00	—	602	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2875d old Poll was fielded 2875 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Walker 49.0 · Mike Dunleavy 40.0	poll arch
6/21/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	654	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls2880d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2880d old Poll was fielded 2880 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 23.0 · Mike Dunleavy 38.0 · Mark Begich 33.0	poll arch
3/29/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	761	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls2964d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2964d old Poll was fielded 2964 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Mark Begich 53.0 · Mike Dunleavy 42.0	poll arch
3/29/2018	Alaska Survey Research	1.00	—	761	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls2964d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2964d old Poll was fielded 2964 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Walker 51.0 · Mike Dunleavy 44.0	poll arch
3/4/2018	Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska)	1.00	—	800	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls2989d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2989d old Poll was fielded 2989 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Walker 41.0 · Mike Dunleavy 47.0	poll arch
2/22/2018	Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker)	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2999d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2999d old Poll was fielded 2999 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Walker 36.0 · Mike Dunleavy 33.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 10 total

Mark Begich (D)

2 endorsements · source

Elected officials (2)

Edgar Blatchford — (Democratic), former mayor of Seward [ 15 ] [ 16 ]
[ 15 ] — Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors representative [ 15 ] [ 16 ]

Mike Dunleavy (R)

8 endorsements · source

Elected officials (4)

David Wilson — state senator [ 40 ] [ 41 ] [ 42 ]
Gary Stevens — state senator [ 36 ] [ 37 ]
Kevin Meyer — state senator and former president of the Alaska Senate [ 35 ]
Lynn Gattis — former state representative and candidate for the state senate in 2016 [ 32 ]

Individuals / celebrities (1)

Alaska National Guard — d Air Force colonel and former human resources director for the Alaska National Guard [ 33 ]

Other (3)

Ketchikan Gateway Borough — Gateway Borough Assemblyman [ 39 ]
[ 34 ] — Jackson, activist and former congressional staffer [ 34 ]
[ 38 ] — n Wright, Air Force veteran [ 38 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	Oct 26	—	-3.5	—
FiveThirtyEight	Lean R	Nov 5	—	-3.5	—
RealClearPolitics	Tossup	Nov 4	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	Nov 5	—	-3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/29/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi