Races · Governor · 2014 · VT

Governor · open seat

Peter Shumlin vs Scott Milne

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Likely D — · 5 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4217d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 5 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 5 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:5 of 5 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	329	±8.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9ptn=329+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. n=329 Sample size of 329 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.4pt — wider than typical. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Peter Shumlin 47.0 · Scott Milne 35.0 · Emily Peyton 2.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	328	±6.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9ptn=328+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. n=328 Sample size of 328 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.4pt — wider than typical. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Peter Shumlin 46.0 · Scott Milne 29.0 · Emily Peyton 11.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	430	±6.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Peter Shumlin 45.0 · Scott Milne 35.0 · Emily Peyton 2.0	poll arch
8/29/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	700	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4272d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4272d old Poll was fielded 4272 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Peter Shumlin 48.0 · Scott Milne 36.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	512	—	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Peter Shumlin 52.0 · Scott Milne 27.0 · Emily Peyton 15.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Nov 3	—	+18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely D	Nov 3	—	+9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 3	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 141 months ago (10/23/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi