Races · Governor · 2014 · WI

Governor · open seat

Mary Burke vs Scott Walker

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Tilt R — · 43 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4209d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 43 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 43 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:43 of 43 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/31/2014	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1494	±3.4	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt4209d old historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 4209d old Poll was fielded 4209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Scott Walker 45.0 · Mary Burke 43.0	poll arch
10/30/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1814	±3.0	unknown	4210d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,814 Sample size of 1,814 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Mary Burke 47.0	poll arch
10/26/2014	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	1164	±3.0	LV	4214d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4214d old Poll was fielded 4214 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Scott Walker 50.0 · Mary Burke 43.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3308	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,308 Sample size of 3,308 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Scott Walker 46.0 · Mary Burke 45.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	973	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4219d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Mary Burke 49.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	WPR/St. Norbert College	1.00	—	525	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4219d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: St. Norbert College Commissioned by St. Norbert College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Mary Burke 46.0	poll arch
10/18/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	860	—	unknown	4222d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4222d old Poll was fielded 4222 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Mary Burke 46.0	poll arch
10/12/2014	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	803	±3.5	LV	4228d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4228d old Poll was fielded 4228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Mary Burke 47.0	poll arch
10/4/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	837	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4236d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4236d old Poll was fielded 4236 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 50.0 · Mary Burke 46.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1444	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Mary Burke 49.0	poll arch
9/28/2014	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	585	±4.1	LV	4242d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4242d old Poll was fielded 4242 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Scott Walker 51.0 · Mary Burke 45.0	poll arch
9/23/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	908	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4247d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4247d old Poll was fielded 4247 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 45.0 · Mary Burke 50.0	poll arch
9/16/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	650	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4254d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4254d old Poll was fielded 4254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Mary Burke 46.0	poll arch
9/14/2014	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	589	±4.1	LV	4256d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4256d old Poll was fielded 4256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Scott Walker 49.0 · Mary Burke 46.0	poll arch
9/3/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1170	±3.0	LV	no scored polls4267d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4267d old Poll was fielded 4267 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Scott Walker 44.0 · Mary Burke 48.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1473	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Scott Walker 49.0 · Mary Burke 45.0	poll arch
8/24/2014	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	609	±4.1	LV	4277d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4277d old Poll was fielded 4277 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Mary Burke 49.0	poll arch
8/14/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4287d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4287d old Poll was fielded 4287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Mary Burke 47.0	poll arch
8/2/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1346	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4299d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4299d old Poll was fielded 4299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Mary Burke 47.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1968	—	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,968 Sample size of 1,968 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Mary Burke 46.0	poll arch
7/20/2014	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	549	±4.3	LV	4312d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4312d old Poll was fielded 4312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Scott Walker 46.0 · Mary Burke 47.0	poll arch
5/18/2014	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	805	±3.5	unknown	4375d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4375d old Poll was fielded 4375 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 46.0 · Mary Burke 46.0	poll arch
5/18/2014	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	805	±3.5	unknown	4375d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4375d old Poll was fielded 4375 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Brett Hulsey 39.0	poll arch
4/20/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1144	±2.9	unknown	4403d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4403d old Poll was fielded 4403 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Mary Burke 45.0	poll arch
4/15/2014	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	851	±3.4	unknown	4408d old 4408d old Poll was fielded 4408 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Mary Burke 47.0	poll arch
4/3/2014	St. Norbert College	1.00	—	401	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls4420d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4420d old Poll was fielded 4420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Scott Walker 55.0 · Mary Burke 40.0	poll arch
3/23/2014	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	801	±3.5	unknown	4431d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4431d old Poll was fielded 4431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Mary Burke 41.0	poll arch
3/17/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	988	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4437d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4437d old Poll was fielded 4437 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 49.0 · Mary Burke 44.0	poll arch
3/11/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4443d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4443d old Poll was fielded 4443 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Scott Walker 45.0 · Mary Burke 45.0	poll arch
1/23/2014	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	802	±3.5	unknown	4490d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4490d old Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Mary Burke 41.0	poll arch
10/24/2013	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	800	±3.5	unknown	4581d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4581d old Poll was fielded 4581 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Mary Burke 45.0	poll arch
10/24/2013	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	800	±3.5	unknown	4581d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4581d old Poll was fielded 4581 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Kathleen Vinehout 44.0	poll arch
10/24/2013	Marquette University	1.00	—(R+1.3)	800	±3.5	unknown	4581d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4581d old Poll was fielded 4581 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Peter W. Barca 42.0	poll arch
9/16/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1180	±2.9	unknown	4619d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4619d old Poll was fielded 4619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Mary Burke 42.0	poll arch
9/16/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1180	±2.9	unknown	4619d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4619d old Poll was fielded 4619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Tom Nelson 40.0	poll arch
9/16/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1180	±2.9	unknown	4619d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4619d old Poll was fielded 4619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Kathleen Vinehout 41.0	poll arch
9/16/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1180	±2.9	unknown	4619d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4619d old Poll was fielded 4619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Peter W. Barca 43.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1799	±2.3	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,799 Sample size of 1,799 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Jon Erpenbach 42.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1799	±2.3	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,799 Sample size of 1,799 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Scott Walker 47.0 · Russ Feingold 49.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1799	±2.3	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,799 Sample size of 1,799 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Mahlon Mitchell 39.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1799	±2.3	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,799 Sample size of 1,799 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Steve Kagen 41.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1799	±2.3	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,799 Sample size of 1,799 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Scott Walker 46.0 · Ron Kind 42.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1799	±2.3	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,799 Sample size of 1,799 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Scott Walker 48.0 · Peter W. Barca 43.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	Nov 3	—	-3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (10/31/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi