Races · Governor · 2014 · TX

Governor · open seat

Wendy Davis vs Greg Abbott

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Lean R — · 38 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4217d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 38 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R

lean-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 38 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:38 of 38 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3987	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,987 Sample size of 3,987 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 57.0 · Wendy Davis 37.0	poll arch
10/19/2014	UoT/Texas Tribune	1.00	—	866	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls4221d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4221d old Poll was fielded 4221 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Texas Tribune Commissioned by Texas Tribune, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Greg Abbott 54.0 · Wendy Davis 38.0	poll arch
10/16/2014	Survey Research Center	1.00	—	781	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4224d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4224d old Poll was fielded 4224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 47.0 · Wendy Davis 32.0	poll arch
10/12/2014	Crosswind Communications	1.00	—	500	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls4228d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4228d old Poll was fielded 4228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 52.0 · Wendy Davis 31.0	poll arch
10/2/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	840	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4238d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4238d old Poll was fielded 4238 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 51.0 · Wendy Davis 40.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	4177	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=4,177 Sample size of 4,177 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 54.0 · Wendy Davis 40.0	poll arch
9/25/2014	Texas Lyceum	1.00	—	666	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4245d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4245d old Poll was fielded 4245 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 49.0 · Wendy Davis 40.0	poll arch
9/4/2014	Benenson *	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4266d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4266d old Poll was fielded 4266 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 46.0 · Wendy Davis 38.0	poll arch
9/3/2014	WPA Opinion Research ^	1.00	—	—	—	unknown	no scored polls4267d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4267d old Poll was fielded 4267 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.	Greg Abbott 53.0 · Wendy Davis 35.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	4189	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=4,189 Sample size of 4,189 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 56.0 · Wendy Davis 38.0	poll arch
8/5/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	850	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4296d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4296d old Poll was fielded 4296 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 48.0 · Wendy Davis 40.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	4320	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=4,320 Sample size of 4,320 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 54.0 · Wendy Davis 37.0	poll arch
6/8/2014	UoT/Texas Tribune	1.00	—	1200	±2.8	unknown	no scored polls4354d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4354d old Poll was fielded 4354 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Texas Tribune Commissioned by Texas Tribune, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Greg Abbott 44.0 · Wendy Davis 32.0	poll arch
4/17/2014	Texas Tech University	1.00	—	454	±4.6	unknown	no scored polls4406d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4406d old Poll was fielded 4406 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 54.0 · Wendy Davis 25.0	poll arch
4/13/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	559	±4.1	unknown	4410d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4410d old Poll was fielded 4410 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 51.0 · Wendy Davis 37.0	poll arch
3/12/2014	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	494	—	unknown	4442d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 4442d old Poll was fielded 4442 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Greg Abbott 49.0 · Wendy Davis 42.0	poll arch
3/4/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4450d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4450d old Poll was fielded 4450 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 53.0 · Wendy Davis 41.0	poll arch
2/17/2014	UoT/Texas Tribune	1.00	—	1200	±2.8	unknown	no scored polls4465d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4465d old Poll was fielded 4465 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Texas Tribune Commissioned by Texas Tribune, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Greg Abbott 47.0 · Wendy Davis 36.0	poll arch
11/4/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4570d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4570d old Poll was fielded 4570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 50.0 · Wendy Davis 35.0	poll arch
10/27/2013	UoT/Texas Tribune	1.00	—	1200	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls4578d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4578d old Poll was fielded 4578 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Texas Tribune Commissioned by Texas Tribune, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Greg Abbott 40.0 · Wendy Davis 34.0	poll arch
10/27/2013	UoT/Texas Tribune	1.00	—	1200	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls4578d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4578d old Poll was fielded 4578 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Texas Tribune Commissioned by Texas Tribune, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tom Pauken 34.0 · Wendy Davis 38.0	poll arch
9/20/2013	Texas Lyceum	1.00	—	798	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4615d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4615d old Poll was fielded 4615 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 29.0 · Wendy Davis 21.0	poll arch
7/1/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4696d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4696d old Poll was fielded 4696 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 48.0 · Wendy Davis 40.0	poll arch
7/1/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4696d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4696d old Poll was fielded 4696 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 48.0 · Julian Castro 34.0	poll arch
7/1/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4696d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4696d old Poll was fielded 4696 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Perry 50.0 · Julian Castro 43.0	poll arch
7/1/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4696d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4696d old Poll was fielded 4696 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Perry 53.0 · Wendy Davis 39.0	poll arch
7/1/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4696d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4696d old Poll was fielded 4696 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 50.0 · Annise Parker 31.0	poll arch
7/1/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4696d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4696d old Poll was fielded 4696 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Perry 52.0 · Annise Parker 35.0	poll arch
7/1/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4696d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4696d old Poll was fielded 4696 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 48.0 · Bill White 36.0	poll arch
7/1/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4696d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4696d old Poll was fielded 4696 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Perry 50.0 · Bill White 40.0	poll arch
1/27/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	400	±4.9	unknown	4851d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4851d old Poll was fielded 4851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 46.0 · Wendy Davis 34.0	poll arch
1/27/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	400	±4.9	unknown	4851d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4851d old Poll was fielded 4851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 46.0 · Julian Castro 36.0	poll arch
1/27/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	400	±4.9	unknown	4851d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4851d old Poll was fielded 4851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Perry 47.0 · Julian Castro 42.0	poll arch
1/27/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	400	±4.9	unknown	4851d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4851d old Poll was fielded 4851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Perry 47.0 · Wendy Davis 41.0	poll arch
1/27/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	400	±4.9	unknown	4851d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4851d old Poll was fielded 4851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 47.0 · Annise Parker 35.0	poll arch
1/27/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	400	±4.9	unknown	4851d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4851d old Poll was fielded 4851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Perry 47.0 · Annise Parker 40.0	poll arch
1/27/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	400	±4.9	unknown	4851d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4851d old Poll was fielded 4851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 46.0 · Bill White 39.0	poll arch
1/27/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	400	±4.9	unknown	4851d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4851d old Poll was fielded 4851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Perry 44.0 · Bill White 47.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Nov 3	—	-9.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely R	Nov 3	—	-9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 3	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 141 months ago (10/23/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean R via pvi