| 10/23/2014 | Research & Polling Inc. * | 1.86 | neutral(R+0.7) | 614 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡4217d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
weight 1.86 Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
| Susana Martínez 53.0 · Gary King 38.0 | pollarch |
| 10/23/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 962 | ±6.0 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4217d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Susana Martínez 50.0 · Gary King 38.0 | pollarch |
| 10/7/2014 | Public Opinion Strategies * | 1.00 | — | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4233d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4233d old Poll was fielded 4233 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Susana Martínez 55.0 · Gary King 36.0 | pollarch |
| 10/1/2014 | Gravis Marketing | 0.72 | L(D+2.9) | 727 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.9pt🟡4239d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. - 🟡
4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
| Susana Martínez 48.0 · Gary King 44.0 | pollarch |
| 10/1/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 1093 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4239d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Susana Martínez 48.0 · Gary King 41.0 | pollarch |
| 9/23/2014 | Rasmussen Reports | 1.00 | —(R+2.1) | 830 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.1pt🟡4247d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. - 🟡
4247d old Poll was fielded 4247 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Susana Martínez 50.0 · Gary King 37.0 | pollarch |
| 9/11/2014 | Research & Polling Inc. * | 1.86 | neutral(R+0.7) | 603 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡4259d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4259d old Poll was fielded 4259 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
weight 1.86 Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
| Susana Martínez 54.0 · Gary King 36.0 | pollarch |
| 9/2/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 1096 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4268d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Susana Martínez 48.0 · Gary King 43.0 | pollarch |
| 8/14/2014 | Research & Polling Inc. * | 1.86 | neutral(R+0.7) | 606 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡4287d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4287d old Poll was fielded 4287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
weight 1.86 Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
| Susana Martínez 50.0 · Gary King 41.0 | pollarch |
| 7/24/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 931 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4308d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Susana Martínez 51.0 · Gary King 44.0 | pollarch |
| 7/22/2014 | Rasmussen Reports | 1.00 | —(R+2.1) | 860 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.1pt🟡4310d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. - 🟡
4310d old Poll was fielded 4310 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Susana Martínez 43.0 · Gary King 43.0 | pollarch |
| 7/10/2014 | Lake Research Partners^ | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4322d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4322d old Poll was fielded 4322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Susana Martínez 45.0 · Gary King 39.0 | pollarch |
| 6/26/2014 | Public Opinion Strategies * | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4336d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4336d old Poll was fielded 4336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Susana Martínez 54.0 · Gary King 38.0 | pollarch |
| 6/11/2014 | BWD Global * | 1.00 | — | 1526 | ±2.5 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4351d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4351d old Poll was fielded 4351 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,526 Sample size of 1,526 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Susana Martínez 53.0 · Gary King 40.0 | pollarch |
| 3/23/2014 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 674 | ±3.8 | unknown | 🟡4431d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4431d old Poll was fielded 4431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Susana Martínez 47.0 · Gary King 42.0 | pollarch |
| 3/23/2014 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 674 | ±3.8 | unknown | 🟡4431d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4431d old Poll was fielded 4431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Susana Martínez 50.0 · Linda M. Lopez 36.0 | pollarch |
| 3/23/2014 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 674 | ±3.8 | unknown | 🟡4431d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4431d old Poll was fielded 4431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Susana Martínez 48.0 · Howie Morales 34.0 | pollarch |
| 3/23/2014 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 674 | ±3.8 | unknown | 🟡4431d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4431d old Poll was fielded 4431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Susana Martínez 47.0 · Lawrence Rael 36.0 | pollarch |
| 3/23/2014 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 674 | ±3.8 | unknown | 🟡4431d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4431d old Poll was fielded 4431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Susana Martínez 48.0 · Allan Weber 32.0 | pollarch |
| 3/23/2014 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 674 | ±3.8 | unknown | 🟡4431d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4431d old Poll was fielded 4431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Susana Martínez 52.0 | pollarch |
| 7/16/2012 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 724 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟡5046d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
5046d old Poll was fielded 5046 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Susana Martínez 51.0 · Gary King 39.0 | pollarch |
| 7/16/2012 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 724 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟡5046d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
5046d old Poll was fielded 5046 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Susana Martínez 50.0 · Hector Balderas 37.0 | pollarch |
| 6/26/2011 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 732 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟡5432d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
5432d old Poll was fielded 5432 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Susana Martínez 53.0 · Diane Denish 44.0 | pollarch |