| 10/23/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 1314 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4217d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Brian Sandoval 53.0 · Bob Goodman 28.0 | pollarch |
| 10/1/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 1502 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4239d old+2- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,502 Sample size of 1,502 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Brian Sandoval 56.0 · Bob Goodman 25.0 | pollarch |
| 9/2/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 2018 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4268d old+2- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=2,018 Sample size of 2,018 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Brian Sandoval 51.0 · Bob Goodman 29.0 | pollarch |
| 7/29/2014 | Harper Polling | 1.00 | — | 602 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4303d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4303d old Poll was fielded 4303 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Brian Sandoval 56.0 · Bob Goodman 34.0 | pollarch |
| 7/24/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 2189 | — | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4308d old+2- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=2,189 Sample size of 2,189 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Brian Sandoval 57.0 · Bob Goodman 33.0 | pollarch |
| 6/18/2014 | Rasmussen Reports | 1.00 | —(R+2.1) | 750 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.1pt🟡4344d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. - 🟡
4344d old Poll was fielded 4344 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Brian Sandoval 55.0 · Bob Goodman 28.0 | pollarch |
| 3/5/2014 | Precision Research | 1.00 | — | 216 | ±6.7 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡n=216+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
n=216 Sample size of 216 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.7pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
4449d old Poll was fielded 4449 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Brian Sandoval 58.0 · Chris Hyepock 16.0 | pollarch |
| 11/4/2012 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 750 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟡4935d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Brian Sandoval 55.0 | pollarch |
| 10/10/2012 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 594 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡4960d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4960d old Poll was fielded 4960 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Brian Sandoval 53.0 | pollarch |
| 8/26/2012 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 831 | ±3.4 | unknown | 🟡5005d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
5005d old Poll was fielded 5005 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Brian Sandoval 53.0 | pollarch |
| 6/10/2012 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡5082d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
5082d old Poll was fielded 5082 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Brian Sandoval 51.0 · Catherine Cortez Masto 33.0 | pollarch |
| 6/10/2012 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡5082d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
5082d old Poll was fielded 5082 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Brian Sandoval 50.0 · Ross Miller 28.0 | pollarch |