Races · Governor · 2014 · NH

Governor · open seat

Maggie Hassan vs Walt Havenstein

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Tossup — · 65 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4206d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 65 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 65 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:65 of 65 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1690	±2.4	unknown	4206d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4206d old Poll was fielded 4206 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,690 Sample size of 1,690 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Walt Havenstein 46.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	757	±3.6	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4207d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Walt Havenstein 43.0	poll arch
11/1/2014	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	1526	±2.5	unknown	4 scored polls4208d old+1 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4208d old Poll was fielded 4208 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,526 Sample size of 1,526 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Walt Havenstein 44.0	poll arch
10/30/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	940	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4210d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Walt Havenstein 42.0	poll arch
10/28/2014	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	638	±3.9	unknown	4212d oldtracks editorial consensus 4212d old Poll was fielded 4212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 44.0 · Walt Havenstein 47.0	poll arch
10/24/2014	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	1132	±2.9	unknown	4 scored polls4216d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4216d old Poll was fielded 4216 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Walt Havenstein 47.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1042	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Walt Havenstein 38.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	555	±4.2	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4218d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 52.0 · Walt Havenstein 37.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls4218d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Maggie Hassan 53.0 · Walt Havenstein 43.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	764	—	unknown	4219d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 53.0 · Walt Havenstein 43.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	645	±4.0	LV	4219d oldlikely-voter screen+1 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Walt Havenstein 45.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	UMass Lowell	1.00	—	643	±4.5	LV	no scored polls4219d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Walt Havenstein 45.0	poll arch
10/19/2014	Suffolk/Boston Herald	1.00	—	500	—	unknown	no scored polls4221d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4221d old Poll was fielded 4221 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Boston Herald Commissioned by Boston Herald, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Walt Havenstein 39.0	poll arch
10/16/2014	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	921	±3.2	unknown	4 scored polls4224d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4224d old Poll was fielded 4224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Walt Havenstein 43.0	poll arch
10/9/2014	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	1081	±3.0	unknown	4 scored polls4231d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4231d old Poll was fielded 4231 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Walt Havenstein 44.0	poll arch
10/8/2014	High Point University	1.00	—	824	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls4232d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4232d old Poll was fielded 4232 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 50.0 · Walt Havenstein 42.0	poll arch
10/5/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	532	±4.2	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4235d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4235d old Poll was fielded 4235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 46.0 · Walt Havenstein 36.0	poll arch
10/3/2014	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	1286	±2.7	unknown	4 scored polls4237d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4237d old Poll was fielded 4237 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Walt Havenstein 41.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1260	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Walt Havenstein 39.0	poll arch
9/29/2014	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls4241d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4241d old Poll was fielded 4241 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Maggie Hassan 55.0 · Walt Havenstein 40.0	poll arch
9/26/2014	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	1331	±2.7	unknown	4 scored polls4244d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4244d old Poll was fielded 4244 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Walt Havenstein 44.0	poll arch
9/20/2014	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	1494	±2.5	unknown	4 scored polls4250d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4250d old Poll was fielded 4250 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 52.0 · Walt Havenstein 40.0	poll arch
9/19/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	652	±3.8	unknown	4251d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4251d old Poll was fielded 4251 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 52.0 · Walt Havenstein 43.0	poll arch
9/16/2014	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	550	±4.2	unknown	4254d oldtracks editorial consensus 4254d old Poll was fielded 4254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Walt Havenstein 43.0	poll arch
9/15/2014	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	544	±4.2	unknown	3 scored polls4255d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4255d old Poll was fielded 4255 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Walt Havenstein 40.0	poll arch
9/11/2014	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	630	±4.0	unknown	4 scored polls4259d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4259d old Poll was fielded 4259 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Walt Havenstein 36.0	poll arch
9/11/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4259d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4259d old Poll was fielded 4259 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Walt Havenstein 40.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1159	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Walt Havenstein 34.0	poll arch
8/17/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	609	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4284d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4284d old Poll was fielded 4284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Walt Havenstein 32.0	poll arch
8/17/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	609	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4284d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4284d old Poll was fielded 4284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Andrew Hemingway 31.0	poll arch
8/13/2014	National Research/RGA	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: RGAno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: RGA This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (RGA). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4288d old Poll was fielded 4288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 42.0 · Walt Havenstein 37.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1246	±2.9	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 53.0 · Walt Havenstein 38.0	poll arch
7/1/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	669	±3.8	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4331d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4331d old Poll was fielded 4331 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 58.0 · Walt Havenstein 29.0	poll arch
7/1/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	669	±3.8	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4331d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4331d old Poll was fielded 4331 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 54.0 · Andrew Hemingway 28.0	poll arch
6/18/2014	Suffolk/Boston Herald	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4344d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4344d old Poll was fielded 4344 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Boston Herald Commissioned by Boston Herald, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Walt Havenstein 19.0	poll arch
6/18/2014	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	540	±4.2	unknown	3 scored polls4344d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4344d old Poll was fielded 4344 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Maggie Hassan 45.0 · Walt Havenstein 32.0	poll arch
6/18/2014	Suffolk/Boston Herald	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4344d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4344d old Poll was fielded 4344 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Boston Herald Commissioned by Boston Herald, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 53.0 · Daniel Greene 13.0	poll arch
6/18/2014	Suffolk/Boston Herald	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4344d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4344d old Poll was fielded 4344 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Boston Herald Commissioned by Boston Herald, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Andrew Hemingway 17.0	poll arch
6/18/2014	Suffolk/Boston Herald	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4344d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4344d old Poll was fielded 4344 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Boston Herald Commissioned by Boston Herald, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 52.0 · Jonathan Smolin 15.0	poll arch
5/15/2014	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	707	±3.6	unknown	4378d oldtracks editorial consensus 4378d old Poll was fielded 4378 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 43.0 · Walt Havenstein 30.0	poll arch
5/15/2014	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	707	±3.6	unknown	4378d oldtracks editorial consensus 4378d old Poll was fielded 4378 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 42.0 · Andrew Hemingway 31.0	poll arch
4/30/2014	Hickman Analytics	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4393d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4393d old Poll was fielded 4393 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 50.0 · Andrew Hemingway 28.0	poll arch
4/25/2014	Rockefeller Center	1.00	—	412	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls4398d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4398d old Poll was fielded 4398 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 40.0 · Walt Havenstein 19.0	poll arch
4/25/2014	Rockefeller Center	1.00	—	412	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls4398d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4398d old Poll was fielded 4398 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 40.0 · Andrew Hemingway 20.0	poll arch
4/9/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	387	±5.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.1ptn=387+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. n=387 Sample size of 387 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. 4414d old Poll was fielded 4414 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Walt Havenstein 19.0	poll arch
4/9/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	387	±5.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.1ptn=387+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. n=387 Sample size of 387 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. 4414d old Poll was fielded 4414 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 50.0 · Ted Gatsas 27.0	poll arch
4/9/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	387	±5.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.1ptn=387+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. n=387 Sample size of 387 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. 4414d old Poll was fielded 4414 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Andrew Hemingway 22.0	poll arch
3/16/2014	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	533	±4.2	unknown	3 scored polls4438d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4438d old Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Maggie Hassan 45.0 · Andrew Hemingway 30.0	poll arch
1/26/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	584	±4.1	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4487d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4487d old Poll was fielded 4487 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 45.0 · Ted Gatsas 34.0	poll arch
1/26/2014	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	584	±4.1	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4487d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4487d old Poll was fielded 4487 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Andrew Hemingway 27.0	poll arch
1/12/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1354	±2.7	unknown	4501d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4501d old Poll was fielded 4501 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Bill Binnie 31.0	poll arch
1/12/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1354	±2.7	unknown	4501d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4501d old Poll was fielded 4501 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Andrew Hemingway 25.0	poll arch
1/12/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1354	±2.7	unknown	4501d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4501d old Poll was fielded 4501 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 50.0 · George Lambert 26.0	poll arch
1/12/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1354	±2.7	unknown	4501d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4501d old Poll was fielded 4501 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 50.0 · Chuck Morse 27.0	poll arch
10/9/2013	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	1063	±3.0	unknown	4 scored polls4596d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4596d old Poll was fielded 4596 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 53.0 · Ted Gatsas 25.0	poll arch
9/16/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1038	±3.0	unknown	4619d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4619d old Poll was fielded 4619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Brad Cook 34.0	poll arch
9/16/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1038	±3.0	unknown	4619d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4619d old Poll was fielded 4619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · George Lambert 32.0	poll arch
9/16/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1038	±3.0	unknown	4619d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4619d old Poll was fielded 4619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Chuck Morse 33.0	poll arch
9/16/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1038	±3.0	unknown	4619d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4619d old Poll was fielded 4619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Andy Sanborn 32.0	poll arch
5/5/2013	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	807	±3.3	unknown	4 scored polls4753d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4753d old Poll was fielded 4753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 55.0 · Jeb Bradley 24.0	poll arch
4/21/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	933	±3.2	unknown	4767d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4767d old Poll was fielded 4767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 52.0 · Jeb Bradley 38.0	poll arch
4/21/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	933	±3.2	unknown	4767d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4767d old Poll was fielded 4767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Ted Gatsas 35.0	poll arch
4/21/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	933	±3.2	unknown	4767d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4767d old Poll was fielded 4767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 54.0 · Frank Guinta 36.0	poll arch
4/21/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	933	±3.2	unknown	4767d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4767d old Poll was fielded 4767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 52.0 · Kevin Smith 32.0	poll arch
4/21/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	933	±3.2	unknown	4767d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4767d old Poll was fielded 4767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 53.0 · Christopher T. Sununu 37.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean D	Nov 3	—	+3.5	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 3	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/3/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi