Races · Governor · 2014 · MI

Governor · open seat

Mark Schauer vs Rick Snyder

← ME Governor MN Governor →

Tossup — · 78 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4206d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 78 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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tossup

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 78 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:78 of 78 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	1310	±2.7	unknown	4206d oldbias R+0.0pt 4206d old Poll was fielded 4206 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 48.0 · Mark Schauer 47.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	1224	±2.8	unknown	4207d oldbias R+0.0pt 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 47.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	Clarity Campaign Labs	1.04	L(D+3.9)	1003	±3.1	unknown	4207d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 45.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	914	±3.2	unknown	4207d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 46.0 · Mark Schauer 45.0	poll arch
10/28/2014	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4212d oldtracks editorial consensus 4212d old Poll was fielded 4212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 43.0	poll arch
10/27/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	1159	±2.9	unknown	4213d oldbias R+0.0pt 4213d old Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 48.0 · Mark Schauer 43.0	poll arch
10/24/2014	Glengariff Group	0.81	L(D+4.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	4216d oldtracks editorial consensus 4216d old Poll was fielded 4216 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 40.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2394	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,394 Sample size of 2,394 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 44.0 · Mark Schauer 45.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	1000	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4218d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 49.0 · Mark Schauer 46.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	723	—	unknown	4219d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 48.0 · Mark Schauer 48.0	poll arch
10/20/2014	Clarity Campaign Labs	1.04	L(D+3.9)	1032	—	unknown	4220d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4220d old Poll was fielded 4220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Snyder 41.0 · Mark Schauer 44.0	poll arch
10/19/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	919	±3.2	unknown	4221d oldbias R+0.0pt 4221d old Poll was fielded 4221 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 48.0 · Mark Schauer 46.0	poll arch
10/19/2014	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4221d oldtracks editorial consensus 4221d old Poll was fielded 4221 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 39.0	poll arch
10/14/2014	Clarity Campaign Labs	1.04	L(D+3.9)	967	±3.2	unknown	4226d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4226d old Poll was fielded 4226 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Snyder 44.0 · Mark Schauer 42.0	poll arch
10/13/2014	Clarity Campaign Labs	1.04	L(D+3.9)	1032	—	unknown	4227d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4227d old Poll was fielded 4227 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Snyder 44.0 · Mark Schauer 43.0	poll arch
10/12/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	1340	±2.7	unknown	4228d oldbias R+0.0pt 4228d old Poll was fielded 4228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 44.0	poll arch
10/9/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	1306	±2.7	unknown	4231d oldbias R+0.0pt 4231d old Poll was fielded 4231 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 46.0	poll arch
10/4/2014	Glengariff Group	0.81	L(D+4.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	4236d oldtracks editorial consensus 4236d old Poll was fielded 4236 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 37.0	poll arch
10/3/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	654	±3.8	unknown	4237d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4237d old Poll was fielded 4237 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 46.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	Marketing Resource Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4239d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 46.0 · Mark Schauer 41.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2560	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,560 Sample size of 2,560 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 44.0 · Mark Schauer 46.0	poll arch
9/30/2014	Lake Research Partners^	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4240d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4240d old Poll was fielded 4240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Rick Snyder 44.0 · Mark Schauer 43.0	poll arch
9/29/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	1178	±2.9	unknown	4241d oldbias R+0.0pt 4241d old Poll was fielded 4241 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 46.0 · Mark Schauer 42.0	poll arch
9/29/2014	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4241d oldtracks editorial consensus 4241d old Poll was fielded 4241 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 39.0	poll arch
9/24/2014	Target Insyght	1.00	—	616	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4246d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4246d old Poll was fielded 4246 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 44.0 · Mark Schauer 45.0	poll arch
9/19/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	852	±3.4	unknown	4251d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4251d old Poll was fielded 4251 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 46.0 · Mark Schauer 44.0	poll arch
9/19/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1182	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4251d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4251d old Poll was fielded 4251 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 43.0 · Mark Schauer 43.0	poll arch
9/18/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4252d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4252d old Poll was fielded 4252 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 41.0	poll arch
9/13/2014	Denno Research	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4257d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4257d old Poll was fielded 4257 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 43.0 · Mark Schauer 40.0	poll arch
9/10/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	829	±3.4	unknown	4260d oldbias R+0.0pt 4260d old Poll was fielded 4260 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 46.0 · Mark Schauer 41.0	poll arch
9/10/2014	Suffolk	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4260d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4260d old Poll was fielded 4260 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 43.0 · Mark Schauer 45.0	poll arch
9/7/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	687	±3.7	unknown	4263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4263d old Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 43.0 · Mark Schauer 42.0	poll arch
9/5/2014	Glengariff Group	0.81	L(D+4.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	4265d oldtracks editorial consensus 4265d old Poll was fielded 4265 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 44.0 · Mark Schauer 42.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2897	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,897 Sample size of 2,897 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 44.0 · Mark Schauer 43.0	poll arch
8/27/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	1004	±3.1	unknown	4274d oldbias R+0.0pt 4274d old Poll was fielded 4274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 46.0	poll arch
8/25/2014	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4276d oldtracks editorial consensus 4276d old Poll was fielded 4276 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 43.0 · Mark Schauer 45.0	poll arch
8/11/2014	Lake Research Partners^	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4290d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4290d old Poll was fielded 4290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Rick Snyder 46.0 · Mark Schauer 38.0	poll arch
8/5/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	626	±5.0	unknown	4296d oldbias R+0.0pt 4296d old Poll was fielded 4296 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 42.0	poll arch
7/30/2014	Marketing Resource Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4302d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4302d old Poll was fielded 4302 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 44.0	poll arch
7/29/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4303d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4303d old Poll was fielded 4303 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 42.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3812	±2.8	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,812 Sample size of 3,812 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 46.0 · Mark Schauer 43.0	poll arch
7/17/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	600	±4.0	unknown	4315d oldbias R+0.0pt 4315d old Poll was fielded 4315 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 43.0 · Mark Schauer 39.0	poll arch
7/15/2014	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4317d oldtracks editorial consensus 4317d old Poll was fielded 4317 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 46.0 · Mark Schauer 43.0	poll arch
7/11/2014	Denno Research	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4321d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4321d old Poll was fielded 4321 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 43.0 · Mark Schauer 35.0	poll arch
7/10/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4322d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4322d old Poll was fielded 4322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 46.0 · Mark Schauer 44.0	poll arch
6/29/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	578	±4.1	unknown	4333d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4333d old Poll was fielded 4333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 40.0 · Mark Schauer 40.0	poll arch
6/6/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	961	±3.2	unknown	4356d oldbias R+0.0pt 4356d old Poll was fielded 4356 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 46.0 · Mark Schauer 41.0	poll arch
5/22/2014	Glengariff Group	0.81	L(D+4.6)	600	±4.3	unknown	4371d oldtracks editorial consensus 4371d old Poll was fielded 4371 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 35.0	poll arch
5/20/2014	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4373d oldtracks editorial consensus 4373d old Poll was fielded 4373 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 38.0	poll arch
4/30/2014	Hickman Analytics	1.00	—	502	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4393d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4393d old Poll was fielded 4393 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 48.0 · Mark Schauer 37.0	poll arch
4/15/2014	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	875	±3.3	unknown	4408d old 4408d old Poll was fielded 4408 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 42.0	poll arch
4/9/2014	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	1460	±2.6	unknown	4414d oldbias R+0.0pt 4414d old Poll was fielded 4414 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Rick Snyder 49.0 · Mark Schauer 37.0	poll arch
4/6/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	825	±3.4	unknown	4417d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4417d old Poll was fielded 4417 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 43.0 · Mark Schauer 39.0	poll arch
3/28/2014	Marketing Resource Group	1.00	—	600	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls4426d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4426d old Poll was fielded 4426 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 39.0	poll arch
3/10/2014	Denno Research	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4444d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4444d old Poll was fielded 4444 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 42.0 · Mark Schauer 39.0	poll arch
3/7/2014	Benenson Strategy Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4447d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4447d old Poll was fielded 4447 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 42.0	poll arch
3/4/2014	Public Opinion Strategies *	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4450d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4450d old Poll was fielded 4450 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 36.0	poll arch
2/23/2014	Clarity Campaigns *	1.00	—	859	±2.5	unknown	no scored polls4459d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4459d old Poll was fielded 4459 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 40.0 · Mark Schauer 47.0	poll arch
2/20/2014	Target Insyght	1.00	—	600	—	unknown	no scored polls4462d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4462d old Poll was fielded 4462 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 38.0	poll arch
2/11/2014	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4471d oldtracks editorial consensus 4471d old Poll was fielded 4471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 39.0	poll arch
1/8/2014	Harper Polling	1.00	—	1004	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4505d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4505d old Poll was fielded 4505 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 47.0 · Mark Schauer 35.0	poll arch
12/8/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1034	±3.0	unknown	4536d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4536d old Poll was fielded 4536 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 44.0 · Mark Schauer 40.0	poll arch
11/14/2013	Denno Research	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4560d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4560d old Poll was fielded 4560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 45.0 · Mark Schauer 31.0	poll arch
10/29/2013	Inside Michigan Politics	1.00	—	794	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4576d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4576d old Poll was fielded 4576 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 36.0 · Mark Schauer 34.0	poll arch
10/10/2013	MRG/Mitchell Research	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4595d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4595d old Poll was fielded 4595 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 50.0 · Mark Schauer 36.0	poll arch
9/10/2013	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4625d oldtracks editorial consensus 4625d old Poll was fielded 4625 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 44.0 · Mark Schauer 36.0	poll arch
7/24/2013	Denno Research	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4673d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4673d old Poll was fielded 4673 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Snyder 43.0 · Mark Schauer 37.0	poll arch
6/2/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	697	±3.7	unknown	4725d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4725d old Poll was fielded 4725 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 38.0 · Mark Schauer 42.0	poll arch
5/15/2013	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4743d oldtracks editorial consensus 4743d old Poll was fielded 4743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 39.0 · Mark Schauer 39.0	poll arch
4/16/2013	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4772d oldtracks editorial consensus 4772d old Poll was fielded 4772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 38.0 · Mark Schauer 39.0	poll arch
4/16/2013	EPIC MRA	1.00	—(D+0.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	4772d oldtracks editorial consensus 4772d old Poll was fielded 4772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Snyder 39.0 · Bart Stupak 38.0	poll arch
3/4/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	702	±3.7	unknown	4815d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4815d old Poll was fielded 4815 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 36.0 · Mark Schauer 40.0	poll arch
3/4/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	702	±3.7	unknown	4815d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4815d old Poll was fielded 4815 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 38.0 · Virg Bernero 43.0	poll arch
3/4/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	702	±3.7	unknown	4815d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4815d old Poll was fielded 4815 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 37.0 · Gary Peters 44.0	poll arch
12/16/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	650	±3.8	unknown	4893d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4893d old Poll was fielded 4893 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 39.0 · Mark Schauer 44.0	poll arch
12/16/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	650	±3.8	unknown	4893d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4893d old Poll was fielded 4893 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 38.0 · Virg Bernero 49.0	poll arch
12/16/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	650	±3.8	unknown	4893d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4893d old Poll was fielded 4893 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 39.0 · Gary Peters 47.0	poll arch
12/16/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	650	±3.8	unknown	4893d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4893d old Poll was fielded 4893 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Snyder 38.0 · Gretchen Whitmer 46.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	Nov 3	—	-3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/3/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi