Races · Governor · 2014 · MN

Governor · open seat

Minnesota Governor

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Tossup — · 54 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4210d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 54 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Verified

Tossup

tossup

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 54 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:54 of 54 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/30/2014	SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	1.00	—	596	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls4210d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. TV-network-sponsored: KSTP-TV Commissioned by KSTP-TV, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jeff Johnson 42.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2430	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,430 Sample size of 2,430 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jeff Johnson 41.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4218d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Star Tribune Commissioned by Star Tribune, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jeff Johnson 38.0	poll arch
10/16/2014	SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	1.00	—	597	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls4224d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4224d old Poll was fielded 4224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. TV-network-sponsored: KSTP-TV Commissioned by KSTP-TV, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jeff Johnson 40.0	poll arch
10/2/2014	SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	1.00	—	577	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls4238d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4238d old Poll was fielded 4238 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. TV-network-sponsored: KSTP-TV Commissioned by KSTP-TV, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jeff Johnson 39.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2562	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,562 Sample size of 2,562 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jeff Johnson 42.0	poll arch
9/30/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4240d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4240d old Poll was fielded 4240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jeff Johnson 40.0	poll arch
9/10/2014	Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4260d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4260d old Poll was fielded 4260 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Star Tribune Commissioned by Star Tribune, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jeff Johnson 33.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3607	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,607 Sample size of 3,607 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jeff Johnson 41.0	poll arch
8/21/2014	SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	1.00	—	600	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls4280d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4280d old Poll was fielded 4280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. TV-network-sponsored: KSTP-TV Commissioned by KSTP-TV, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jeff Johnson 40.0	poll arch
8/14/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4287d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4287d old Poll was fielded 4287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jeff Johnson 41.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3170	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,170 Sample size of 3,170 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Marty Seifert 37.0	poll arch
7/3/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	879	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4329d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4329d old Poll was fielded 4329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Jeff Johnson 37.0	poll arch
6/15/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	633	±3.9	unknown	4347d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4347d old Poll was fielded 4347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jeff Johnson 36.0	poll arch
6/15/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	633	±3.9	unknown	4347d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4347d old Poll was fielded 4347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Merrill Anderson 35.0	poll arch
6/15/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	633	±3.9	unknown	4347d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4347d old Poll was fielded 4347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Honour 35.0	poll arch
6/15/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	633	±3.9	unknown	4347d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4347d old Poll was fielded 4347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Marty Seifert 36.0	poll arch
6/15/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	633	±3.9	unknown	4347d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4347d old Poll was fielded 4347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kurt Zellers 37.0	poll arch
6/9/2014	SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	1.00	—	1017	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4353d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4353d old Poll was fielded 4353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. TV-network-sponsored: KSTP-TV Commissioned by KSTP-TV, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jeff Johnson 40.0	poll arch
6/9/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1017	±3.1	unknown	4353d oldtracks editorial consensus 4353d old Poll was fielded 4353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Scott Honour 37.0	poll arch
6/9/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1017	±3.1	unknown	4353d oldtracks editorial consensus 4353d old Poll was fielded 4353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Marty Seifert 38.0	poll arch
6/9/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1017	±3.1	unknown	4353d oldtracks editorial consensus 4353d old Poll was fielded 4353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kurt Zellers 39.0	poll arch
4/28/2014	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	800	—	unknown	4395d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 4395d old Poll was fielded 4395 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jeff Johnson 30.0	poll arch
4/28/2014	Suffolk	1.00	—	800	—	unknown	no scored polls4395d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4395d old Poll was fielded 4395 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rob Farnsworth 28.0	poll arch
4/28/2014	Suffolk	1.00	—	800	—	unknown	no scored polls4395d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4395d old Poll was fielded 4395 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Scott Honour 28.0	poll arch
4/28/2014	Suffolk	1.00	—	800	—	unknown	no scored polls4395d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4395d old Poll was fielded 4395 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marty Seifert 32.0	poll arch
4/28/2014	Suffolk	1.00	—	800	—	unknown	no scored polls4395d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4395d old Poll was fielded 4395 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Dave A. Thompson 31.0	poll arch
4/28/2014	Suffolk	1.00	—	800	—	unknown	no scored polls4395d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4395d old Poll was fielded 4395 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kurt Zellers 31.0	poll arch
2/27/2014	SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	1.00	—	545	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls4455d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4455d old Poll was fielded 4455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. TV-network-sponsored: KSTP-TV Commissioned by KSTP-TV, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jeff Johnson 34.0	poll arch
2/27/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	545	±4.3	unknown	4455d oldtracks editorial consensus 4455d old Poll was fielded 4455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Farnsworth 31.0	poll arch
2/27/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	545	±4.3	unknown	4455d oldtracks editorial consensus 4455d old Poll was fielded 4455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Scott Honour 33.0	poll arch
2/27/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	545	±4.3	unknown	4455d oldtracks editorial consensus 4455d old Poll was fielded 4455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Marty Seifert 34.0	poll arch
2/27/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	545	±4.3	RV	4455d oldregistered voters+1 4455d old Poll was fielded 4455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Dave A. Thompson 32.0	poll arch
2/27/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	545	±4.3	unknown	4455d oldtracks editorial consensus 4455d old Poll was fielded 4455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kurt Zellers 31.0	poll arch
10/29/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	895	±3.3	unknown	4576d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4576d old Poll was fielded 4576 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jeff Johnson 37.0	poll arch
10/29/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	895	±3.3	unknown	4576d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4576d old Poll was fielded 4576 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Honour 38.0	poll arch
10/29/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	895	±3.3	unknown	4576d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4576d old Poll was fielded 4576 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Julie Rosen 36.0	poll arch
10/29/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	895	±3.3	unknown	4576d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4576d old Poll was fielded 4576 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Marty Seifert 37.0	poll arch
10/29/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	895	±3.3	unknown	4576d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4576d old Poll was fielded 4576 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Dave A. Thompson 37.0	poll arch
10/29/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	895	±3.3	unknown	4576d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4576d old Poll was fielded 4576 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kurt Zellers 38.0	poll arch
5/19/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	712	±3.7	unknown	4739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4739d old Poll was fielded 4739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jeff Johnson 34.0	poll arch
5/19/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	712	±3.7	unknown	4739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4739d old Poll was fielded 4739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kurt Daudt 39.0	poll arch
5/19/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	712	±3.7	unknown	4739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4739d old Poll was fielded 4739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Emmer 39.0	poll arch
5/19/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	712	±3.7	unknown	4739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4739d old Poll was fielded 4739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	David Hann 36.0	poll arch
5/19/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	712	±3.7	unknown	4739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4739d old Poll was fielded 4739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Honour 34.0	poll arch
5/19/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	712	±3.7	unknown	4739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4739d old Poll was fielded 4739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Julie Rosen 34.0	poll arch
5/19/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	712	±3.7	unknown	4739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4739d old Poll was fielded 4739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Dave A. Thompson 35.0	poll arch
5/19/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	712	±3.7	unknown	4739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4739d old Poll was fielded 4739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kurt Zellers 35.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1065	±3.0	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jeff Johnson 29.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1065	±3.0	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Norm Coleman 39.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1065	±3.0	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Keith Downey 30.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1065	±3.0	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Pawlenty 42.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1065	±3.0	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Julie Rosen 27.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1065	±3.0	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kurt Zellers 29.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	Nov 3	—	+9.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Lean D	Nov 3	—	+3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Nov 3	—	+9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (10/30/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi