Races · Governor · 2014 · ME

Governor · open seat

Mike Michaud vs Paul LePage

← MD Governor MI Governor →

Tilt D — · 48 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4207d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 48 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D

tilt-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 48 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:48 of 48 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/2/2014	Maine People's Resource Center	1.00	—	906	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls4207d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 44.0 · Mike Michaud 45.0 · Eliot Cutler 9.0	poll arch
10/29/2014	Bangor Daily News/Ipsos	1.00	—	488	±5.1	unknown	no scored polls4211d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4211d old Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 42.0 · Mike Michaud 42.0 · Eliot Cutler 13.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	869	±3.3	unknown	4217d old 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 42.0 · Mike Michaud 42.0 · Eliot Cutler 13.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	660	±3.6	unknown	4217d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 40.0 · Mike Michaud 40.0 · Eliot Cutler 17.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1177	±5.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Paul LePage 35.0 · Mike Michaud 37.0 · Eliot Cutler 7.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Pan Atlantic/SMS Group	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4219d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 40.0 · Mike Michaud 40.0 · Eliot Cutler 13.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	University of New Hampshire	1.00	—(R+0.9)	639	±3.8	unknown	4219d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+1 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.	Paul LePage 45.0 · Mike Michaud 35.0 · Eliot Cutler 16.0	poll arch
10/9/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	930	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4231d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4231d old Poll was fielded 4231 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Paul LePage 41.0 · Mike Michaud 40.0 · Eliot Cutler 16.0	poll arch
10/7/2014	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner	1.00	—	605	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4233d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4233d old Poll was fielded 4233 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 39.0 · Mike Michaud 43.0 · Eliot Cutler 15.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1531	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,531 Sample size of 1,531 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Paul LePage 37.0 · Mike Michaud 39.0 · Eliot Cutler 10.0	poll arch
9/30/2014	Critical Insights	1.00	—	606	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4240d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4240d old Poll was fielded 4240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 39.0 · Mike Michaud 36.0 · Eliot Cutler 21.0	poll arch
9/29/2014	Pan Atlantic/SMS Group	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4241d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4241d old Poll was fielded 4241 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 39.0 · Mike Michaud 34.0 · Eliot Cutler 20.0	poll arch
9/25/2014	University of New Hampshire	1.00	—(R+0.9)	482	±4.4	unknown	4245d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+1 4245d old Poll was fielded 4245 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.	Paul LePage 38.0 · Mike Michaud 40.0 · Eliot Cutler 12.0	poll arch
9/23/2014	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner	1.00	—	605	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4247d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4247d old Poll was fielded 4247 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 38.0 · Mike Michaud 44.0 · Eliot Cutler 15.0	poll arch
9/10/2014	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner	1.00	—	900	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls4260d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4260d old Poll was fielded 4260 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 40.0 · Mike Michaud 42.0 · Eliot Cutler 15.0	poll arch
9/9/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1059	±3.0	unknown	4261d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4261d old Poll was fielded 4261 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 42.0 · Mike Michaud 43.0 · Eliot Cutler 11.0	poll arch
9/4/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4266d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4266d old Poll was fielded 4266 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Paul LePage 39.0 · Mike Michaud 43.0 · Eliot Cutler 15.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1202	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Paul LePage 38.0 · Mike Michaud 37.0 · Eliot Cutler 10.0	poll arch
7/28/2014	Maine People's Resource Center	1.00	—	796	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4304d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4304d old Poll was fielded 4304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 41.0 · Mike Michaud 43.0 · Eliot Cutler 13.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1353	±2.7	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Paul LePage 38.0 · Mike Michaud 52.0	poll arch
7/16/2014	Normington Petts	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4316d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4316d old Poll was fielded 4316 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 37.0 · Mike Michaud 41.0 · Eliot Cutler 13.0	poll arch
6/18/2014	University of New Hampshire	1.00	—(R+0.9)	527	±4.3	unknown	4344d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+1 4344d old Poll was fielded 4344 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.	Paul LePage 36.0 · Mike Michaud 40.0 · Eliot Cutler 15.0	poll arch
5/6/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	754	—	unknown	4387d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4387d old Poll was fielded 4387 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 39.0 · Mike Michaud 43.0 · Eliot Cutler 15.0	poll arch
4/25/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	830	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4398d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4398d old Poll was fielded 4398 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Paul LePage 40.0 · Mike Michaud 40.0 · Eliot Cutler 14.0	poll arch
4/23/2014	Critical Insights	1.00	—	601	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4400d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4400d old Poll was fielded 4400 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 36.0 · Mike Michaud 37.0 · Eliot Cutler 18.0	poll arch
4/5/2014	Pan Atlantic/SMS Group	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4418d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4418d old Poll was fielded 4418 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 39.0 · Mike Michaud 37.0 · Eliot Cutler 20.0	poll arch
4/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	583	±3.5	unknown	4421d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4421d old Poll was fielded 4421 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 37.0 · Mike Michaud 44.0 · Eliot Cutler 14.0	poll arch
3/6/2014	Normington Petts	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4448d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4448d old Poll was fielded 4448 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 35.0 · Mike Michaud 39.0 · Eliot Cutler 16.0	poll arch
1/23/2014	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4490d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4490d old Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 32.0 · Mike Michaud 45.0 · Eliot Cutler 18.0	poll arch
11/30/2013	Pan Atlantic SMS	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4544d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4544d old Poll was fielded 4544 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 36.0 · Mike Michaud 37.0 · Eliot Cutler 18.0	poll arch
11/11/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	964	±3.2	unknown	4563d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4563d old Poll was fielded 4563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 36.0 · Mike Michaud 38.0 · Eliot Cutler 15.0	poll arch
9/30/2013	Critical Insights	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4605d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4605d old Poll was fielded 4605 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 30.0 · Mike Michaud 33.0 · Eliot Cutler 24.0	poll arch
9/10/2013	Maine People's Resource Center	1.00	—	652	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4625d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4625d old Poll was fielded 4625 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 34.0 · Mike Michaud 40.0 · Eliot Cutler 17.0	poll arch
8/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	953	±3.2	unknown	4641d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4641d old Poll was fielded 4641 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 35.0 · Mike Michaud 39.0 · Eliot Cutler 18.0	poll arch
7/16/2013	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4681d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4681d old Poll was fielded 4681 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 31.0 · Mike Michaud 40.0 · Eliot Cutler 26.0	poll arch
6/24/2013	Clarity Campaigns *	1.00	—	628	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4703d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4703d old Poll was fielded 4703 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 32.0 · Mike Michaud 32.0 · Eliot Cutler 24.0	poll arch
5/7/2013	Critical Insights	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4751d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4751d old Poll was fielded 4751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 30.0 · Democratic opponent 16.0 · Eliot Cutler 28.0	poll arch
3/16/2013	Pan Atlantic SMS	1.00	—	403	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4803d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4803d old Poll was fielded 4803 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 34.0 · Mike Michaud 23.0 · Eliot Cutler 26.0	poll arch
3/16/2013	Pan Atlantic SMS	1.00	—	403	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4803d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4803d old Poll was fielded 4803 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Paul LePage 37.0 · John Baldacci 21.0 · Eliot Cutler 27.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1268	±2.8	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 34.0 · Mike Michaud 30.0 · Eliot Cutler 26.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1268	±2.8	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 38.0 · John Baldacci 53.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1268	±2.8	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 40.0 · Chellie Pingree 53.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1268	±2.8	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 36.0 · John Baldacci 27.0 · Eliot Cutler 29.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1268	±2.8	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 37.0 · Janet Mills 19.0 · Eliot Cutler 32.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1268	±2.8	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 37.0 · Chellie Pingree 31.0 · Eliot Cutler 23.0	poll arch
1/20/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1268	±2.8	unknown	4858d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4858d old Poll was fielded 4858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 37.0 · Ethan Strimling 15.0 · Eliot Cutler 32.0	poll arch
11/2/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1633	±2.4	unknown	4937d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4937d old Poll was fielded 4937 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,633 Sample size of 1,633 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Paul LePage 41.0 · Democratic opponent 49.0	poll arch
9/18/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	804	±3.5	unknown	4982d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4982d old Poll was fielded 4982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Paul LePage 40.0 · Democratic opponent 48.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 3	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/2/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt D via pvi