Races · Governor · 2014 · MD

Governor · open seat

Anthony Brown vs Larry Hogan

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Likely D — · 16 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4216d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 16 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 16 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:16 of 16 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/24/2014	WPA Opinion Research ^	1.00	—	500	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4216d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4216d old Poll was fielded 4216 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Anthony Brown 39.0 · Larry Hogan 44.0	poll arch
10/24/2014	Gonzales Research	1.00	—	822	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4216d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4216d old Poll was fielded 4216 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Anthony Brown 46.0 · Larry Hogan 44.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1086	±5.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Anthony Brown 51.0 · Larry Hogan 38.0	poll arch
10/20/2014	WPA Opinion Research ^	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4220d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4220d old Poll was fielded 4220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Anthony Brown 42.0 · Larry Hogan 41.0	poll arch
10/9/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	784	±3.5	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4231d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4231d old Poll was fielded 4231 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Anthony Brown 46.0 · Larry Hogan 43.0	poll arch
10/8/2014	Baltimore Sun	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4232d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4232d old Poll was fielded 4232 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Anthony Brown 49.0 · Larry Hogan 42.0	poll arch
10/5/2014	Washington Post	1.00	—	549	±5.0	LV	no scored polls4235d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4235d old Poll was fielded 4235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Anthony Brown 47.0 · Larry Hogan 38.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1096	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Anthony Brown 55.0 · Larry Hogan 38.0	poll arch
9/23/2014	Gonzales Research	1.00	—	805	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4247d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4247d old Poll was fielded 4247 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Anthony Brown 47.0 · Larry Hogan 43.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1082	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Anthony Brown 51.0 · Larry Hogan 37.0	poll arch
8/19/2014	OnMessage, Inc. *	3.36	neutral(R+0.2)	500	±4.4	unknown	4282d oldR+4.1pt vs editors+1 4282d old Poll was fielded 4282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+4.1pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. weight 3.36 Aggregation weight is 3.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Anthony Brown 45.0 · Larry Hogan 42.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1409	—	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Anthony Brown 52.0 · Larry Hogan 39.0	poll arch
7/10/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4322d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4322d old Poll was fielded 4322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Anthony Brown 48.0 · Larry Hogan 35.0	poll arch
6/8/2014	Washington Post	1.00	—	962	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4354d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4354d old Poll was fielded 4354 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Anthony Brown 51.0 · Larry Hogan 33.0	poll arch
5/7/2014	WPA Opinion Research ^	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4386d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4386d old Poll was fielded 4386 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Anthony Brown 42.0 · Larry Hogan 35.0	poll arch
9/11/2013	WPA Opinion Research ^	1.00	—	—	—	unknown	no scored polls4624d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4624d old Poll was fielded 4624 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.	Anthony Brown 46.0 · Larry Hogan 32.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 3	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 141 months ago (10/24/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi