Races · Governor · 2014 · MA
Governor · open seat

Martha Coakley vs Charlie Baker

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Likely D — · 145 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4207d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 145 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 145 results

145 of 145 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/2/2014Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)887±3.3unknown
4207d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4207d old
    Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Martha Coakley 42.0 · Charlie Baker 46.0 · Scott Lively 3.0 · Jeff McCormick 1.0pollarch
10/30/2014WNEU1.00—430±5.0LV
no scored polls4210d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4210d old
    Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Martha Coakley 41.0 · Charlie Baker 46.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 1.0pollarch
10/29/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
4211d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4211d old
    Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 43.0 · Charlie Baker 46.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
10/29/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)600±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4211d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4211d old
    Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 37.0 · Charlie Baker 44.0 · Scott Lively 2.0 · Jeff McCormick 1.0pollarch
10/29/2014Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)627±3.9unknown
4211d oldtracks editorial consensus+1
  • 4211d old
    Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Martha Coakley 42.0 · Charlie Baker 48.0pollarch
10/27/2014UMass Amherst1.00—591±4.4LV
no scored polls4213d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4213d old
    Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Martha Coakley 47.0 · Charlie Baker 44.0 · Scott Lively 2.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
10/25/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)494±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4215d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4215d old
    Poll was fielded 4215 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 42.0 · Charlie Baker 43.0 · Scott Lively 2.0 · Jeff McCormick 1.0pollarch
10/25/2014UMass Lowell1.00—601±4.5LV
no scored polls4215d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4215d old
    Poll was fielded 4215 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Martha Coakley 41.0 · Charlie Baker 45.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
10/23/2014CBS News/NYT/YouGov0.59L(D+4.9)2218±3.0unknown
historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2
  • historical bias D+4.9pt
    Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 4217d old
    Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=2,218
    Sample size of 2,218 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 45.0 · Charlie Baker 41.0pollarch
10/22/2014GreenbergQuinlanRosner1.00—611±4.0unknown
no scored polls4218d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4218d old
    Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 45.0 · Charlie Baker 44.0pollarch
10/22/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)500±4.4unknown
4 scored polls4218d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4218d old
    Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 36.0 · Charlie Baker 45.0 · Scott Lively 2.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
10/18/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)501±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4222d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4222d old
    Poll was fielded 4222 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 42.0 · Charlie Baker 43.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
10/14/2014Rasmussen Reports1.00—(R+2.1)980±3.0unknown
bias R+2.1pt4226d old+1
  • bias R+2.1pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt.
  • 4226d old
    Poll was fielded 4226 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 46.0 · Charlie Baker 48.0pollarch
10/14/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)400±4.9unknown
4 scored polls4226d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4226d old
    Poll was fielded 4226 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 41.0 · Charlie Baker 41.0 · Scott Lively 3.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
10/11/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)500±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4229d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4229d old
    Poll was fielded 4229 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 42.0 · Charlie Baker 39.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
10/7/2014Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)500±4.3unknown
4233d oldtracks editorial consensus+1
  • 4233d old
    Poll was fielded 4233 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Martha Coakley 39.0 · Charlie Baker 45.0pollarch
10/7/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)400±4.9unknown
4 scored polls4233d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4233d old
    Poll was fielded 4233 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 39.0 · Charlie Baker 34.0 · Scott Lively 2.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
10/4/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4236d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4236d old
    Poll was fielded 4236 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 41.0 · Charlie Baker 39.0 · Scott Lively 2.0 · Jeff McCormick 1.0pollarch
10/2/2014UMass Amherst1.00—414±5.5LV
no scored polls4238d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4238d old
    Poll was fielded 4238 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Martha Coakley 48.0 · Charlie Baker 44.0 · Scott Lively 2.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
10/1/2014CBS News/NYT/YouGov0.59L(D+4.9)2389±2.0unknown
historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2
  • historical bias D+4.9pt
    Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 4239d old
    Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=2,389
    Sample size of 2,389 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 47.0 · Charlie Baker 41.0pollarch
9/30/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)401±4.9unknown
4 scored polls4240d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4240d old
    Poll was fielded 4240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 36.0 · Charlie Baker 39.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 1.0pollarch
9/28/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
4242d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4242d old
    Poll was fielded 4242 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 44.0 · Charlie Baker 43.0 · Scott Lively 0.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
9/28/2014WNEU1.00—416±5.0LV
no scored polls4242d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4242d old
    Poll was fielded 4242 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Martha Coakley 43.0 · Charlie Baker 44.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
9/27/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)503±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4243d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4243d old
    Poll was fielded 4243 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 44.0 · Charlie Baker 41.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
9/23/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)400±4.9unknown
4 scored polls4247d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4247d old
    Poll was fielded 4247 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 38.0 · Charlie Baker 40.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
9/23/2014UMass Amherst1.00—440—LV
no scored polls4247d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4247d old
    Poll was fielded 4247 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Martha Coakley 45.0 · Charlie Baker 46.0 · Scott Lively 2.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
9/21/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)502±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4249d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4249d old
    Poll was fielded 4249 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 46.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 1.0pollarch
9/17/2014Rasmussen Reports1.00—(R+2.1)750±4.0unknown
bias R+2.1pt4253d old+1
  • bias R+2.1pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt.
  • 4253d old
    Poll was fielded 4253 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 42.0 · Charlie Baker 42.0pollarch
9/16/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)407±4.8unknown
4 scored polls4254d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4254d old
    Poll was fielded 4254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 39.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0 · Scott Lively 3.0 · Jeff McCormick 1.0pollarch
9/14/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4256d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4256d old
    Poll was fielded 4256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 44.0 · Charlie Baker 35.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
9/7/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)500±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4263d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4263d old
    Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 39.0 · Charlie Baker 34.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 1.0pollarch
9/7/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)500±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4263d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4263d old
    Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 18.0 · Charlie Baker 39.0pollarch
9/7/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)500±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4263d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4263d old
    Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 28.0 · Charlie Baker 34.0pollarch
9/2/2014CBS News/NYT/YouGov0.59L(D+4.9)3361±2.0unknown
historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2
  • historical bias D+4.9pt
    Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 4268d old
    Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=3,361
    Sample size of 3,361 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 43.0 · Charlie Baker 35.0pollarch
8/31/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)700±3.7unknown
3 scored polls4270d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4270d old
    Poll was fielded 4270 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 40.0 · Charlie Baker 31.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
8/31/2014UMass Lowell1.00—1624±2.9unknown
no scored polls4270d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4270d old
    Poll was fielded 4270 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=1,624
    Sample size of 1,624 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Martha Coakley 41.0 · Charlie Baker 32.0 · Jeff McCormick 7.0pollarch
8/31/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)700±3.7unknown
3 scored polls4270d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4270d old
    Poll was fielded 4270 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 19.0 · Charlie Baker 37.0pollarch
8/31/2014UMass Lowell1.00—1624±2.9unknown
no scored polls4270d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4270d old
    Poll was fielded 4270 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=1,624
    Sample size of 1,624 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Steven Grossman 31.0 · Charlie Baker 33.0pollarch
8/31/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)700±3.7unknown
3 scored polls4270d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4270d old
    Poll was fielded 4270 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 29.0 · Charlie Baker 34.0pollarch
8/5/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)605±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4296d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4296d old
    Poll was fielded 4296 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 42.0 · Charlie Baker 31.0 · Jeff McCormick 5.0pollarch
8/5/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)605±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4296d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4296d old
    Poll was fielded 4296 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 23.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0pollarch
8/5/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)605±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4296d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4296d old
    Poll was fielded 4296 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 30.0 · Charlie Baker 31.0pollarch
8/3/2014MassINC0.87—(R+4.6)388—unknown
3 scored pollsn=388+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • n=388
    Sample size of 388 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical.
  • 4298d old
    Poll was fielded 4298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Martha Coakley 44.0 · Charlie Baker 41.0pollarch
8/3/2014MassINC0.87—(R+4.6)388—unknown
3 scored pollsn=388+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • n=388
    Sample size of 388 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical.
  • 4298d old
    Poll was fielded 4298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Steven Grossman 39.0 · Charlie Baker 35.0pollarch
7/24/2014CBS News/NYT/YouGov0.59L(D+4.9)1899±4.9unknown
historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2
  • historical bias D+4.9pt
    Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 4308d old
    Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=1,899
    Sample size of 1,899 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 51.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0pollarch
7/1/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)601±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4331d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4331d old
    Poll was fielded 4331 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 40.0 · Charlie Baker 31.0 · Jeff McCormick 6.0pollarch
7/1/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)601±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4331d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4331d old
    Poll was fielded 4331 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 17.0 · Charlie Baker 37.0pollarch
7/1/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)601±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4331d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4331d old
    Poll was fielded 4331 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 26.0 · Charlie Baker 34.0pollarch
6/29/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)502±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4333d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4333d old
    Poll was fielded 4333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 41.0 · Charlie Baker 28.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
6/29/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)502±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4333d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4333d old
    Poll was fielded 4333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 19.0 · Charlie Baker 31.0pollarch
6/29/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)502±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4333d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4333d old
    Poll was fielded 4333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 21.0 · Mark Fisher 14.0pollarch
6/29/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)502±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4333d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4333d old
    Poll was fielded 4333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 43.0 · Mark Fisher 13.0pollarch
6/29/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)502±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4333d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4333d old
    Poll was fielded 4333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 28.0 · Charlie Baker 30.0pollarch
6/29/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)502±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4333d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4333d old
    Poll was fielded 4333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 31.0 · Mark Fisher 15.0pollarch
6/7/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)800±3.5unknown
4355d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4355d old
    Poll was fielded 4355 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 36.0 · Charlie Baker 29.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
6/7/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)800±3.5unknown
4355d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4355d old
    Poll was fielded 4355 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Joseph Avellone 17.0 · Charlie Baker 30.0pollarch
6/7/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)800±3.5unknown
4355d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4355d old
    Poll was fielded 4355 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Donald Berwick 18.6 · Charlie Baker 29.6pollarch
6/7/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)800±3.5unknown
4355d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4355d old
    Poll was fielded 4355 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Steven Grossman 24.3 · Charlie Baker 26.5pollarch
6/7/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)800±3.5unknown
4355d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4355d old
    Poll was fielded 4355 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Juliette Kayyem 20.0 · Charlie Baker 28.0pollarch
6/3/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)602±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4359d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4359d old
    Poll was fielded 4359 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 37.0 · Charlie Baker 32.0 · Jeff McCormick 7.0pollarch
6/3/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)602±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4359d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4359d old
    Poll was fielded 4359 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Joseph Avellone 17.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0pollarch
6/3/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)602±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4359d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4359d old
    Poll was fielded 4359 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 18.0 · Charlie Baker 37.0pollarch
6/3/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)602±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4359d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4359d old
    Poll was fielded 4359 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 26.0 · Charlie Baker 32.0pollarch
6/3/2014Boston Globe0.74—(R+4.5)602±4.0unknown
4 scored polls4359d old
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4359d old
    Poll was fielded 4359 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Juliette Kayyem 20.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0pollarch
5/18/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4375d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4375d old
    Poll was fielded 4375 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 39.0 · Charlie Baker 30.0 · Jeff McCormick 3.0pollarch
5/18/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4375d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4375d old
    Poll was fielded 4375 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 16.0 · Charlie Baker 35.0pollarch
5/18/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4375d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4375d old
    Poll was fielded 4375 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 25.0 · Charlie Baker 33.0pollarch
5/18/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4375d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4375d old
    Poll was fielded 4375 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Juliette Kayyem 17.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0pollarch
4/7/2014WNEU1.00—477±5.0unknown
no scored polls4416d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4416d old
    Poll was fielded 4416 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 54.0 · Charlie Baker 25.0 · Jeff McCormick 3.0pollarch
4/7/2014WNEU1.00—477±5.0unknown
no scored polls4416d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4416d old
    Poll was fielded 4416 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 38.0 · Charlie Baker 29.0pollarch
4/6/2014UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.9unknown
no scored polls4417d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4417d old
    Poll was fielded 4417 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 45.0 · Charlie Baker 34.0pollarch
4/6/2014UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.9unknown
no scored polls4417d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4417d old
    Poll was fielded 4417 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 29.0 · Charlie Baker 32.0pollarch
4/6/2014UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.9unknown
no scored polls4417d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4417d old
    Poll was fielded 4417 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 35.0 · Charlie Baker 29.0pollarch
4/6/2014UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.9unknown
no scored polls4417d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4417d old
    Poll was fielded 4417 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Juliette Kayyem 32.0 · Charlie Baker 32.0pollarch
3/16/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)500±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4438d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4438d old
    Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 41.0 · Charlie Baker 26.0 · Jeff McCormick 1.0pollarch
3/16/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)500±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4438d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4438d old
    Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 17.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0pollarch
3/16/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)500±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4438d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4438d old
    Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 24.0 · Charlie Baker 32.0pollarch
3/16/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)500±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4438d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4438d old
    Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Juliette Kayyem 19.0 · Charlie Baker 34.0pollarch
2/3/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)600±4.0unknown
4479d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4479d old
    Poll was fielded 4479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 44.0 · Charlie Baker 31.0 · Scott Lively 1.0 · Jeff McCormick 2.0pollarch
2/3/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)600±4.0unknown
4479d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4479d old
    Poll was fielded 4479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Joseph Avellone 19.0 · Charlie Baker 38.0pollarch
2/3/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)600±4.0unknown
4479d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4479d old
    Poll was fielded 4479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Joseph Avellone 21.8 · Mark Fisher 19.3pollarch
2/3/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)600±4.0unknown
4479d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4479d old
    Poll was fielded 4479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Donald Berwick 18.5 · Charlie Baker 38.3pollarch
2/3/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)600±4.0unknown
4479d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4479d old
    Poll was fielded 4479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Donald Berwick 21.2 · Mark Fisher 19.2pollarch
2/3/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)600±4.0unknown
4479d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4479d old
    Poll was fielded 4479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Martha Coakley 48.7 · Mark Fisher 16.3pollarch
2/3/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)600±4.0unknown
4479d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4479d old
    Poll was fielded 4479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Steven Grossman 28.3 · Charlie Baker 33.3pollarch
2/3/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)600±4.0unknown
4479d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4479d old
    Poll was fielded 4479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Steven Grossman 35.3 · Mark Fisher 17.2pollarch
2/3/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)600±4.0unknown
4479d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4479d old
    Poll was fielded 4479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Juliette Kayyem 19.0 · Charlie Baker 36.8pollarch
2/3/2014Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)600±4.0unknown
4479d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 4479d old
    Poll was fielded 4479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Juliette Kayyem 24.3 · Mark Fisher 19.2pollarch
1/23/2014Purple Strategies1.00—500±4.4unknown
no scored polls4490d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4490d old
    Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 46.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0pollarch
1/23/2014Purple Strategies1.00—500±4.4unknown
no scored polls4490d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4490d old
    Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 50.0 · Mark Fisher 30.0pollarch
1/23/2014Purple Strategies1.00—500±4.4unknown
no scored polls4490d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4490d old
    Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 34.0 · Charlie Baker 35.0pollarch
1/23/2014Purple Strategies1.00—500±4.4unknown
no scored polls4490d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4490d old
    Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 35.0 · Mark Fisher 26.0pollarch
1/19/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4494d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4494d old
    Poll was fielded 4494 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 39.0 · Charlie Baker 29.0 · Jeff McCormick 3.0pollarch
1/19/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4494d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4494d old
    Poll was fielded 4494 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Joseph Avellone 13.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0pollarch
1/19/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4494d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4494d old
    Poll was fielded 4494 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Donald Berwick 13.0 · Charlie Baker 36.0pollarch
1/19/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4494d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4494d old
    Poll was fielded 4494 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 23.0 · Charlie Baker 33.0pollarch
1/19/2014WBUR/MassINC1.53—(R+1.5)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls4494d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4494d old
    Poll was fielded 4494 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Juliette Kayyem 15.0 · Charlie Baker 37.0pollarch
10/7/2013WNEU1.00—431—unknown
no scored polls4598d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4598d old
    Poll was fielded 4598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Martha Coakley 54.0 · Charlie Baker 34.0pollarch
10/7/2013WNEU1.00—431—unknown
no scored polls4598d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4598d old
    Poll was fielded 4598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 43.0 · Charlie Baker 30.0pollarch
9/23/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)616±4.0unknown
4612d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4612d old
    Poll was fielded 4612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Martha Coakley 51.0 · Charlie Baker 38.0pollarch
9/23/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)616±4.0unknown
4612d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4612d old
    Poll was fielded 4612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Joseph Avellone 30.0 · Charlie Baker 40.0pollarch
9/23/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)616±4.0unknown
4612d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4612d old
    Poll was fielded 4612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Donald Berwick 31.0 · Charlie Baker 38.0pollarch
9/23/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)616±4.0unknown
4612d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4612d old
    Poll was fielded 4612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Mike Capuano 42.0 · Charlie Baker 37.0pollarch
9/23/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)616±4.0unknown
4612d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4612d old
    Poll was fielded 4612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Steven Grossman 38.0 · Charlie Baker 37.0pollarch
9/23/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)616±4.0unknown
4612d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4612d old
    Poll was fielded 4612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Juliette Kayyem 31.0 · Charlie Baker 38.0pollarch
9/23/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)616±4.0unknown
4612d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4612d old
    Poll was fielded 4612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Dan Wolf 31.0 · Charlie Baker 37.0pollarch
6/4/2013UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.4unknown
no scored polls4723d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4723d old
    Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Mike Capuano 36.0 · Charlie Baker 24.0pollarch
6/4/2013UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.4unknown
no scored polls4723d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4723d old
    Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Mike Capuano 33.0 · Scott Brown 45.0pollarch
6/4/2013UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.4unknown
no scored polls4723d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4723d old
    Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Mike Capuano 40.0 · Richard Tisei 20.0pollarch
6/4/2013UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.4unknown
no scored polls4723d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4723d old
    Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 27.0 · Charlie Baker 26.0pollarch
6/4/2013UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.4unknown
no scored polls4723d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4723d old
    Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 26.0 · Scott Brown 55.0pollarch
6/4/2013UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.4unknown
no scored polls4723d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4723d old
    Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Steven Grossman 27.0 · Richard Tisei 26.0pollarch
6/4/2013UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.4unknown
no scored polls4723d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4723d old
    Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Joseph P. Kennedy II 48.0 · Charlie Baker 25.0pollarch
6/4/2013UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.4unknown
no scored polls4723d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4723d old
    Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Joseph P. Kennedy II 41.0 · Scott Brown 42.0pollarch
6/4/2013UMass Amherst1.00—500±5.4unknown
no scored polls4723d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4723d old
    Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Joseph P. Kennedy II 40.0 · Richard Tisei 33.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Joseph Avellone 24.0 · Charlie Baker 33.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Joseph Avellone 29.0 · Scott Brown 46.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Joseph Avellone 29.0 · Richard Tisei 25.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Donald Berwick 25.0 · Charlie Baker 35.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Donald Berwick 28.0 · Richard Tisei 24.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Mike Capuano 35.0 · Charlie Baker 33.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Mike Capuano 38.0 · Scott Brown 45.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Mike Capuano 38.0 · Richard Tisei 24.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Mo Cowan 26.0 · Charlie Baker 33.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Mo Cowan 31.0 · Scott Brown 48.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Mo Cowan 30.0 · Richard Tisei 25.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
William F. Galvin 37.0 · Charlie Baker 31.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
William F. Galvin 39.0 · Scott Brown 43.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
William F. Galvin 39.0 · Richard Tisei 24.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Steven Grossman 32.0 · Charlie Baker 31.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Steven Grossman 34.0 · Scott Brown 46.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Steven Grossman 34.0 · Richard Tisei 25.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Carmen Ortiz 27.0 · Charlie Baker 35.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Carmen Ortiz 31.0 · Scott Brown 49.0pollarch
5/2/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1539±2.5unknown
4756d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 4756d old
    Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
  • n=1,539
    Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Carmen Ortiz 29.0 · Richard Tisei 27.0pollarch
1/30/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)763±3.6unknown
4848d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4848d old
    Poll was fielded 4848 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Donald Berwick 32.0 · Scott Brown 49.0pollarch
1/30/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)763±3.6unknown
4848d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4848d old
    Poll was fielded 4848 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Steven Grossman 37.0 · Scott Brown 48.0pollarch
1/30/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)763±3.6unknown
4848d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4848d old
    Poll was fielded 4848 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Steven Grossman 37.0 · Richard Tisei 48.0pollarch
6/24/2012Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)902±3.3unknown
5068d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 5068d old
    Poll was fielded 5068 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Martha Coakley 47.0 · Charlie Baker 34.0pollarch
6/24/2012Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)902±3.3unknown
5068d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 5068d old
    Poll was fielded 5068 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Steven Grossman 36.0 · Charlie Baker 34.0pollarch
6/24/2012Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)902±3.3unknown
5068d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 5068d old
    Poll was fielded 5068 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Tim Murray 36.0 · Charlie Baker 37.0pollarch
3/18/2012Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)936±3.2unknown
5166d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 5166d old
    Poll was fielded 5166 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Martha Coakley 49.0 · Charlie Baker 29.0pollarch
3/18/2012Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)936±3.2unknown
5166d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 5166d old
    Poll was fielded 5166 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Steven Grossman 37.0 · Charlie Baker 30.0pollarch
3/18/2012Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)936±3.2unknown
5166d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 5166d old
    Poll was fielded 5166 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Tim Murray 37.0 · Charlie Baker 32.0pollarch
1/30/2012Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)763±3.6unknown
5214d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 5214d old
    Poll was fielded 5214 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Carmen Ortiz 32.0 · Scott Brown 49.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Tossup Nov 3 — 0.0 —
Real Clear Politics Tossup Nov 3 — 0.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R Nov 3 — -3.5 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/2/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi