Races · Governor · 2014 · KS

Governor · open seat

Paul Davis vs Sam Brownback

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Likely R — · 43 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4206d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 43 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 43 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:43 of 43 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	963	±3.2	unknown	4206d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4206d old Poll was fielded 4206 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 45.0 · Paul Davis 46.0 · Keen Umbehr 4.0	poll arch
10/31/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	752	—	unknown	4209d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4209d old Poll was fielded 4209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 44.0 · Paul Davis 48.0 · Keen Umbehr 5.0	poll arch
10/31/2014	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1137	±4.8	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt4209d old historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 4209d old Poll was fielded 4209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sam Brownback 39.0 · Paul Davis 38.0 · Keen Umbehr 2.0	poll arch
10/30/2014	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	907	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.6pt4210d old bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sam Brownback 42.0 · Paul Davis 48.0 · Keen Umbehr 4.0	poll arch
10/26/2014	Survey USA	1.00	—	623	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4214d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4214d old Poll was fielded 4214 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sam Brownback 43.0 · Paul Davis 46.0 · Keen Umbehr 5.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1973	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,973 Sample size of 1,973 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 43.0 · Paul Davis 40.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	757	±3.6	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt4218d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 44.0 · Paul Davis 45.0 · Keen Umbehr 5.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	960	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4219d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 45.0 · Paul Davis 52.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1124	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4219d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Sam Brownback 44.0 · Paul Davis 49.0	poll arch
10/19/2014	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	429	±4.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt4221d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 4221d old Poll was fielded 4221 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 45.0 · Paul Davis 50.0	poll arch
10/12/2014	Remington Research	1.00	—	1091	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4228d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4228d old Poll was fielded 4228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sam Brownback 48.0 · Paul Davis 45.0 · Keen Umbehr 3.0	poll arch
10/12/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1081	±3.0	unknown	4228d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4228d old Poll was fielded 4228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 42.0 · Paul Davis 42.0 · Keen Umbehr 6.0	poll arch
10/7/2014	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	702	±3.5	unknown	bias D+2.6pt4233d old bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 4233d old Poll was fielded 4233 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sam Brownback 46.0 · Paul Davis 40.0 · Keen Umbehr 2.0	poll arch
10/6/2014	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	687	±3.5	unknown	4234d oldtracks editorial consensus 4234d old Poll was fielded 4234 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 49.0 · Paul Davis 49.0	poll arch
10/5/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	549	±4.3	unknown	4235d oldtracks editorial consensus 4235d old Poll was fielded 4235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 42.0 · Paul Davis 47.0 · Keen Umbehr 4.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	850	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4239d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Sam Brownback 40.0 · Paul Davis 48.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	636	±3.9	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 43.0 · Paul Davis 44.0 · Keen Umbehr 4.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2013	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,013 Sample size of 2,013 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 45.0 · Paul Davis 42.0	poll arch
9/30/2014	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4240d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 4240d old Poll was fielded 4240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 42.0 · Paul Davis 46.0 · Keen Umbehr 6.0	poll arch
9/27/2014	Fort Hays State University	1.00	—	685	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4243d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4243d old Poll was fielded 4243 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sam Brownback 37.0 · Paul Davis 39.0 · Keen Umbehr 9.0	poll arch
9/23/2014	Remington Research	1.00	—	625	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls4247d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4247d old Poll was fielded 4247 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sam Brownback 44.0 · Paul Davis 46.0 · Keen Umbehr 5.0	poll arch
9/17/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4253d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4253d old Poll was fielded 4253 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 43.0 · Paul Davis 47.0	poll arch
9/16/2014	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	604	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.6pt4254d old bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 4254d old Poll was fielded 4254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sam Brownback 41.0 · Paul Davis 45.0 · Keen Umbehr 4.0	poll arch
9/14/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1328	±2.7	unknown	4256d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4256d old Poll was fielded 4256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 38.0 · Paul Davis 42.0 · Keen Umbehr 7.0	poll arch
9/7/2014	KSN/SurveyUSA	1.00	—	555	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls4263d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4263d old Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sam Brownback 40.0 · Paul Davis 47.0 · Keen Umbehr 5.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	839	±5.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 47.0 · Paul Davis 40.0	poll arch
8/23/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	560	±4.2	unknown	4278d oldtracks editorial consensus 4278d old Poll was fielded 4278 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 40.0 · Paul Davis 48.0 · Keen Umbehr 5.0	poll arch
8/17/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	903	±3.3	unknown	4284d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4284d old Poll was fielded 4284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 37.0 · Paul Davis 39.0 · Keen Umbehr 9.0	poll arch
8/7/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4294d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4294d old Poll was fielded 4294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 41.0 · Paul Davis 51.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1274	±6.1	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 52.0 · Paul Davis 40.0	poll arch
7/22/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1208	±2.9	unknown	4310d oldtracks editorial consensus 4310d old Poll was fielded 4310 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 40.0 · Paul Davis 48.0 · Keen Umbehr 5.0	poll arch
6/23/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1068	±3.1	unknown	4339d oldtracks editorial consensus 4339d old Poll was fielded 4339 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 41.0 · Paul Davis 47.0	poll arch
4/17/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4406d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4406d old Poll was fielded 4406 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 47.0 · Paul Davis 40.0	poll arch
4/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	886	±3.1	unknown	4421d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4421d old Poll was fielded 4421 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 41.0 · Paul Davis 45.0	poll arch
2/20/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4462d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4462d old Poll was fielded 4462 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 40.0 · Paul Davis 42.0	poll arch
1/29/2014	Wilson Perkins Allen	1.00	—	—	—	unknown	no scored polls4484d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4484d old Poll was fielded 4484 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.	Sam Brownback 42.0 · Paul Davis 31.0	poll arch
10/24/2013	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	511	±4.4	unknown	4581d oldtracks editorial consensus 4581d old Poll was fielded 4581 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sam Brownback 39.0 · Paul Davis 43.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1229	±2.8	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 44.0 · Carl Brewer 40.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1229	±2.8	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 45.0 · Tom Holland 38.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1229	±2.8	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 45.0 · Mark Parkinson 39.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1229	±2.8	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 45.0 · Joe Reardon 36.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1229	±2.8	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 48.0 · Kathleen Sebelius 43.0	poll arch
2/24/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1229	±2.8	unknown	4823d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4823d old Poll was fielded 4823 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sam Brownback 44.0 · Chad Taylor 34.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 3	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/3/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi