Races · Governor · 2014 · IL

Governor · open seat

Pat Quinn vs Bruce Rauner

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Lean D — · 57 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4207d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 57 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Lean D

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 57 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:57 of 57 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1064	±3.0	unknown	4207d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Quinn 47.0 · Bruce Rauner 45.0 · Chad Grimm 3.0	poll arch
10/28/2014	McKeon & Associates	1.00	—	823	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls4212d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4212d old Poll was fielded 4212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 45.0 · Bruce Rauner 42.0 · Chad Grimm 4.0	poll arch
10/28/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	2327	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4212d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4212d old Poll was fielded 4212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,327 Sample size of 2,327 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat Quinn 50.0 · Bruce Rauner 45.0 · Chad Grimm 6.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3519	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,519 Sample size of 3,519 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Quinn 45.0 · Bruce Rauner 41.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	1000	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4218d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Quinn 47.0 · Bruce Rauner 48.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	APC Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4219d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 43.0 · Bruce Rauner 45.0 · Chad Grimm 4.0	poll arch
10/15/2014	Southern Illinois University	1.00	—	1006	±3.0	RV	no scored polls4225d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4225d old Poll was fielded 4225 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Pat Quinn 41.0 · Bruce Rauner 39.0 · Chad Grimm 5.0	poll arch
10/8/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1051	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4232d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4232d old Poll was fielded 4232 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 44.0 · Bruce Rauner 41.0 · Chad Grimm 7.0	poll arch
10/8/2014	University of Illinois Springfield	1.00	—	723	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4232d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4232d old Poll was fielded 4232 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 41.0 · Bruce Rauner 43.0	poll arch
10/6/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1097	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4234d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4234d old Poll was fielded 4234 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 44.0 · Bruce Rauner 40.0 · Chad Grimm 6.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3955	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,955 Sample size of 3,955 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Quinn 46.0 · Bruce Rauner 43.0	poll arch
9/30/2014	Communication Express	1.00	—	1208	±2.9	unknown	no scored polls4240d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4240d old Poll was fielded 4240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 37.0 · Bruce Rauner 43.0 · Chad Grimm 5.0	poll arch
9/29/2014	Fabrizio Lee	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4241d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4241d old Poll was fielded 4241 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 41.0 · Bruce Rauner 39.0 · Chad Grimm 5.0	poll arch
9/25/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4245d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4245d old Poll was fielded 4245 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Quinn 44.0 · Bruce Rauner 42.0	poll arch
9/24/2014	Battleground Polling	1.00	—	408	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls4246d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4246d old Poll was fielded 4246 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 43.0 · Bruce Rauner 43.0 · Chad Grimm 6.0	poll arch
9/19/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1418	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4251d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4251d old Poll was fielded 4251 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 41.0 · Bruce Rauner 44.0 · Chad Grimm 6.0	poll arch
9/7/2014	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	605	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4263d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4263d old Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Pat Quinn 43.0 · Bruce Rauner 40.0 · Chad Grimm 5.0	poll arch
9/5/2014	APC Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4265d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4265d old Poll was fielded 4265 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 48.0 · Bruce Rauner 37.0 · Chad Grimm 5.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1064	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4268d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 37.0 · Bruce Rauner 46.0 · Chad Grimm 7.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	4363	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=4,363 Sample size of 4,363 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Quinn 40.0 · Bruce Rauner 44.0	poll arch
8/14/2014	Garin Hart Yang Research Group *	1.00	—	802	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4287d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4287d old Poll was fielded 4287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 43.0 · Bruce Rauner 46.0	poll arch
8/6/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1085	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4295d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4295d old Poll was fielded 4295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 38.0 · Bruce Rauner 51.0	poll arch
8/5/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	567	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4296d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4296d old Poll was fielded 4296 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Pat Quinn 40.0 · Bruce Rauner 48.0	poll arch
7/30/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4302d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4302d old Poll was fielded 4302 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Quinn 39.0 · Bruce Rauner 44.0	poll arch
7/29/2014	Mellman Group ^	1.00	—	600	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls4303d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4303d old Poll was fielded 4303 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 38.0 · Bruce Rauner 39.0	poll arch
7/28/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1087	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4304d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4304d old Poll was fielded 4304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 33.0 · Bruce Rauner 47.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	5298	±2.1	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=5,298 Sample size of 5,298 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Quinn 43.0 · Bruce Rauner 46.0	poll arch
7/22/2014	Harstad Strategic Research	1.00	—	1003	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4310d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4310d old Poll was fielded 4310 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 42.0 · Bruce Rauner 46.0	poll arch
7/10/2014	McKeon & Associates	1.00	—	800	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls4322d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4322d old Poll was fielded 4322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 34.0 · Bruce Rauner 40.0	poll arch
7/8/2014	Capitol Fax/We Ask America	1.00	—	940	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls4324d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4324d old Poll was fielded 4324 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 39.0 · Bruce Rauner 51.0	poll arch
6/11/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1075	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4351d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4351d old Poll was fielded 4351 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 37.0 · Bruce Rauner 47.0	poll arch
5/12/2014	Where America Stands	1.00	—	1168	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4381d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4381d old Poll was fielded 4381 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 31.0 · Bruce Rauner 49.0 · Chad Grimm 1.0	poll arch
4/27/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	—	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4396d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4396d old Poll was fielded 4396 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.	Pat Quinn 44.0 · Bruce Rauner 44.0	poll arch
4/21/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	—	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls4402d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4402d old Poll was fielded 4402 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.	Pat Quinn 38.0 · Bruce Rauner 49.0	poll arch
4/10/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4413d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4413d old Poll was fielded 4413 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Quinn 40.0 · Bruce Rauner 43.0	poll arch
3/27/2014	Where America Stands	1.00	—	1033	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4427d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4427d old Poll was fielded 4427 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 32.0 · Bruce Rauner 46.0 · Chad Grimm 1.0	poll arch
3/22/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	806	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4432d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4432d old Poll was fielded 4432 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Pat Quinn 35.0 · Bruce Rauner 43.0	poll arch
1/30/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1354	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls4483d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4483d old Poll was fielded 4483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 39.0 · Bruce Rauner 47.0	poll arch
1/30/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1354	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls4483d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4483d old Poll was fielded 4483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 39.0 · Bill Brady 48.0	poll arch
1/30/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1354	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls4483d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4483d old Poll was fielded 4483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 37.0 · Kirk Dillard 46.0	poll arch
1/30/2014	We Ask America	1.00	—	1354	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls4483d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4483d old Poll was fielded 4483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Quinn 37.0 · Dan Rutherford 46.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	557	±4.2	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Quinn 41.0 · Bruce Rauner 38.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	557	±4.2	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Quinn 41.0 · Bill Brady 41.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	557	±4.2	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Quinn 39.0 · Kirk Dillard 39.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	557	±4.2	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Quinn 39.0 · Dan Rutherford 41.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	557	±4.2	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rahm Emanuel 40.0 · Dan Rutherford 38.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	557	±4.2	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Daniel Hynes 34.0 · Dan Rutherford 34.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	557	±4.2	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Lisa Madigan 45.0 · Dan Rutherford 40.0	poll arch
11/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4911d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4911d old Poll was fielded 4911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Quinn 37.0 · Kirk Dillard 44.0	poll arch
11/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4911d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4911d old Poll was fielded 4911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Quinn 39.0 · Dan Rutherford 43.0	poll arch
11/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4911d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4911d old Poll was fielded 4911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Quinn 40.0 · Aaron Schock 39.0	poll arch
11/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4911d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4911d old Poll was fielded 4911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Daley 34.0 · Kirk Dillard 36.0	poll arch
11/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4911d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4911d old Poll was fielded 4911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Daley 37.0 · Dan Rutherford 38.0	poll arch
11/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4911d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4911d old Poll was fielded 4911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Daley 40.0 · Aaron Schock 35.0	poll arch
11/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4911d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4911d old Poll was fielded 4911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Lisa Madigan 46.0 · Kirk Dillard 37.0	poll arch
11/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4911d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4911d old Poll was fielded 4911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Lisa Madigan 46.0 · Dan Rutherford 37.0	poll arch
11/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4911d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4911d old Poll was fielded 4911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Lisa Madigan 46.0 · Aaron Schock 38.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 3	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/2/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean D via pvi