Races · Governor · 2012 · NH

Governor · open seat

Maggie Hassan vs Ovide Lamontagne

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Tossup — · 65 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4935d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 65 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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tossup

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 65 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:65 of 65 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/4/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4935d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 50.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 45.0	poll arch
11/4/2012	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	666	±4.1	unknown	4 scored polls4935d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 45.0	poll arch
11/4/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1550	±2.5	unknown	4935d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,550 Sample size of 1,550 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 47.0	poll arch
11/4/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	789	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4935d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 54.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 43.0	poll arch
11/2/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	502	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4937d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4937d old Poll was fielded 4937 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 42.0	poll arch
10/29/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	1013	±3.1	unknown	4941d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 4941d old Poll was fielded 4941 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 44.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	874	±3.3	unknown	4942d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 44.0	poll arch
10/25/2012	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	571	±4.1	unknown	4 scored polls4945d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4945d old Poll was fielded 4945 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 45.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 45.0	poll arch
10/23/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4947d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4947d old Poll was fielded 4947 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 46.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 48.0	poll arch
10/21/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	773	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4949d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 43.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 35.0	poll arch
10/19/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1036	±3.0	unknown	4951d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4951d old Poll was fielded 4951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 45.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 43.0	poll arch
10/15/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4955d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4955d old Poll was fielded 4955 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 46.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 48.0	poll arch
10/14/2012	Suffolk University/7NEWS	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4956d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4956d old Poll was fielded 4956 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 41.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 38.0	poll arch
10/11/2012	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls4959d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4959d old Poll was fielded 4959 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Maggie Hassan 40.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 46.0	poll arch
10/9/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4961d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4961d old Poll was fielded 4961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 46.0	poll arch
10/6/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	419	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls4964d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4964d old Poll was fielded 4964 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 35.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 39.0	poll arch
9/30/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4970d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4970d old Poll was fielded 4970 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 38.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 36.0	poll arch
9/25/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	862	±3.3	unknown	4975d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4975d old Poll was fielded 4975 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 44.0	poll arch
9/25/2012	NBC/The Wall Street Journal/Marist College	1.00	—	1012	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4975d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4975d old Poll was fielded 4975 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: The Wall Street Journal / Marist College Commissioned by The Wall Street Journal / Marist College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 45.0	poll arch
9/19/2012	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner	1.00	—	600	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4981d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4981d old Poll was fielded 4981 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 46.0	poll arch
9/18/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4982d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4982d old Poll was fielded 4982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 44.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 48.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1055	±3.0	unknown	5019d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 45.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 43.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	555	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls5019d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 31.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 33.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1055	±3.0	unknown	5019d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jackie Cilley 42.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 42.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	555	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls5019d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jackie Cilley 31.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 35.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1055	±3.0	unknown	5019d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jackie Cilley 39.0 · Kevin Smith 38.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	555	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls5019d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jackie Cilley 31.0 · Kevin Smith 28.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1055	±3.0	unknown	5019d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 42.0 · Kevin Smith 39.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	555	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls5019d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 31.0 · Kevin Smith 29.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	555	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls5019d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bill Kennedy 29.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 35.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	555	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls5019d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bill Kennedy 27.0 · Kevin Smith 29.0	poll arch
6/20/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5072d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5072d old Poll was fielded 5072 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 36.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 42.0	poll arch
6/20/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5072d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5072d old Poll was fielded 5072 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jackie Cilley 39.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 41.0	poll arch
6/20/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5072d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5072d old Poll was fielded 5072 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jackie Cilley 39.0 · Kevin Smith 37.0	poll arch
6/20/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5072d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5072d old Poll was fielded 5072 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Hassan 36.0 · Kevin Smith 39.0	poll arch
5/13/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1163	±2.9	unknown	5110d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5110d old Poll was fielded 5110 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 39.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 40.0	poll arch
5/13/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1163	±2.9	unknown	5110d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5110d old Poll was fielded 5110 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jackie Cilley 38.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 38.0	poll arch
5/13/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1163	±2.9	unknown	5110d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5110d old Poll was fielded 5110 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jackie Cilley 37.0 · Kevin Smith 32.0	poll arch
5/13/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1163	±2.9	unknown	5110d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5110d old Poll was fielded 5110 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 37.0 · Kevin Smith 31.0	poll arch
4/20/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	486	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls5133d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5133d old Poll was fielded 5133 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 34.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 29.0	poll arch
4/20/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	486	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls5133d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5133d old Poll was fielded 5133 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jackie Cilley 31.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 30.0	poll arch
4/20/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	486	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls5133d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5133d old Poll was fielded 5133 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jackie Cilley 30.0 · Kevin Smith 23.0	poll arch
4/20/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	486	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls5133d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5133d old Poll was fielded 5133 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 29.0 · Kevin Smith 24.0	poll arch
2/2/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	495	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls5211d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5211d old Poll was fielded 5211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 26.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 32.0	poll arch
2/2/2012	WMUR/University of New Hampshire	1.00	—	495	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls5211d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5211d old Poll was fielded 5211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: University of New Hampshire Commissioned by University of New Hampshire, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Maggie Hassan 27.0 · Ted Gatsas 29.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 35.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 41.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mark Connolly 30.0 · Jeb Bradley 38.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 33.0 · Jeb Bradley 39.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Steve Marchand 32.0 · Jeb Bradley 38.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mark Connolly 34.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 40.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mark Connolly 36.0 · John Stephen 36.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mark Connolly 36.0 · John E. Sununu 44.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Lynch 54.0 · Jeb Bradley 35.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Lynch 54.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 36.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Lynch 55.0 · John Stephen 34.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Lynch 51.0 · John E. Sununu 40.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Steve Marchand 33.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 40.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Steve Marchand 34.0 · John Stephen 36.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Steve Marchand 35.0 · John E. Sununu 44.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 36.0 · John Stephen 37.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	662	±3.8	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 36.0 · John E. Sununu 45.0	poll arch
4/3/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	769	±3.5	unknown	5516d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5516d old Poll was fielded 5516 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Lynch 57.0 · Jeb Bradley 33.0	poll arch
4/3/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	769	±3.5	unknown	5516d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5516d old Poll was fielded 5516 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Lynch 57.0 · Ovide Lamontagne 33.0	poll arch
4/3/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	769	±3.5	unknown	5516d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5516d old Poll was fielded 5516 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Lynch 57.0 · John Stephen 29.0	poll arch
4/3/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	769	±3.5	unknown	5516d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5516d old Poll was fielded 5516 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Lynch 54.0 · John E. Sununu 36.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 1	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (11/4/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi