Races · Governor · 2012 · ND

Governor · open seat

Ryan Taylor vs Jack Dalrymple

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Safe R — · 6 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4942d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 6 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 6 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:6 of 6 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/28/2012	Pharos Research	0.97	neutral(D+0.6)	752	±3.6	unknown	4942d oldbias D+0.6pt+1 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jack Dalrymple 63.0 · Ryan Taylor 34.0	poll arch
10/21/2012	Pharos Research	0.97	neutral(D+0.6)	807	±3.4	unknown	4949d oldbias D+0.6pt+1 4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jack Dalrymple 63.0 · Ryan Taylor 32.0	poll arch
10/18/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4952d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4952d old Poll was fielded 4952 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jack Dalrymple 53.0 · Ryan Taylor 39.0	poll arch
10/15/2012	Forum/Essman	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4955d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4955d old Poll was fielded 4955 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jack Dalrymple 59.0 · Ryan Taylor 28.0	poll arch
10/5/2012	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt4965d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 4965d old Poll was fielded 4965 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jack Dalrymple 62.0 · Ryan Taylor 24.0	poll arch
7/11/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	400	±5.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5051d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5051d old Poll was fielded 5051 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jack Dalrymple 61.0 · Ryan Taylor 26.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Nov 1	—	-18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (10/28/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi