Races · Governor · 2012 · UT

Governor · open seat

Peter Cooke vs Gary Herbert

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Likely R — · 4 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4938d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 4 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 4 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:4 of 4 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/1/2012	Deseret News/KSL	1.00	—	870	—	unknown	no scored polls4938d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4938d old Poll was fielded 4938 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Gary Herbert 69.0 · Peter Cooke 24.0	poll arch
10/13/2012	Key Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4957d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4957d old Poll was fielded 4957 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Gary Herbert 65.0 · Peter Cooke 19.0	poll arch
10/13/2012	Utah State University	1.00	—	—	±7.6	unknown	no scored polls4957d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4957d old Poll was fielded 4957 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.	Gary Herbert 76.0 · Peter Cooke 17.0	poll arch
4/11/2012	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5142d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5142d old Poll was fielded 5142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Gary Herbert 65.0 · Peter Cooke 27.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Nov 1	—	-18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (11/1/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi