Public domain
RepublicanRunning for OH-15 U.S. House · 2026
Mike Carey
Michael Todd Whitaker Carey is an American politician and former coal lobbyist serving as the U.S. representative for Ohio's 15th congressional district. A member of the Republican Party, Carey was first elected in a 2021 special election.
Born 1971 · Sabina, Ohio , U.S.
In brief
—
No profile summary yet
Summaries are written and fact-checked against the underlying data in nightly batches. This candidate's hasn't been generated or verified yet.
68%
Win probability
market-implied
$2.6M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Carey's money comes from.
C−
38/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance4
2% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
67% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding47
53% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
What Carey did in office.
MeasureYearAction
Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted
Became Public Law No: 119-5.
2025
Became law
COCOA Act of 2024
Became Public Law No: 118-106.
2023
Became law
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide incentives for certain residential rental property.
Referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means.
2026
Sponsored
Save Our Pedestrians Act of 2026
Referred to the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure.
2026
Sponsored
Historic Preservation and Land Conservation Certainty Act
Referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means.
2026
Sponsored
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide special rules with respect to the net operating losses o
Referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means.
2026
Sponsored
Tax Clarity for Mining and Staking Act
Referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means.
2026
Sponsored
SPONSORED LEGISLATION VIA CONGRESS.GOV · ENACTED BILLS FIRST, THEN THE MOST RECENT · ROLE SHOWS THE BILL'S LATEST STATUS.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How Carey votes
With the party, against it, and where on the spectrum.
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Carey
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
70
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (HOUSE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 586 roll-calls · 119th Congress (House)
97%voted with Republicans · 3% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
2021United States representative
since 2021
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$2.6M
Raised
$1.2M
Spent
$1.5M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
2% small (<$200)31% large indiv.67% PAC
47% in-state · 53% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-04-15 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Carey and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: US CONGRESS · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
nytimes.com · 2026-07-02
Ohio U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
msn.com · 2026-07-01
Sherrod Brown leads Ohio Senate race as GOP shifts tactics
nytimes.com · 2026-07-01
Ohio Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
tippahnews.com · 2026-06-30
AARP Poll Shows Ramaswamy, Husted Trailing Democrats in Ohio
Republican · OH-15 U.S. House
Mike Carey
Michael Todd Whitaker Carey is an American politician and former coal lobbyist serving as the U.S. representative for Ohio's 15th congressional district. A member of the Republican Party, Carey was first elected in a 2021 special election.
68%
Win prob
$2.6M
Raised
In brief
—
No profile summary yet
Summaries are written and fact-checked against the underlying data in nightly batches. This candidate's hasn't been generated or verified yet.
Governing & voting record
Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted
2025 · BECAME LAW
COCOA Act of 2024
2023 · BECAME LAW
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide incentives for certain residential rental property.
2026 · SPONSORED
Save Our Pedestrians Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
Historic Preservation and Land Conservation Certainty Act
2026 · SPONSORED
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide special rules with respect to the net operating losses o
2026 · SPONSORED
Tax Clarity for Mining and Staking Act
2026 · SPONSORED
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
2021United States representative
since 2021
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Carey's money comes from.
C−
38/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance4
2% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
67% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding47
53% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How Carey votes
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Carey
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
70
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (HOUSE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 586 roll-calls · 119th Congress (House)
97%voted with Republicans · 3% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$2.6M
Raised
$1.2M
Spent
$1.5M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
2% small (<$200)31% large indiv.67% PAC
47% in-state · 53% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-04-15 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: US CONGRESS · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)