Public domain
RepublicanRunning for NE-3 U.S. House · 2026
Adrian Smith
Adrian Michael Smith is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Nebraska's 3rd congressional district since 2007. A member of the Republican Party, he represented the 48th district in the Nebraska Legislature from 1999 to 2007. Smith is the dean of Nebraska's congressional delegation since 2022 following Jeff Fortenberry's resignation.
Born 1970 · Scottsbluff, Nebraska , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-05
Adrian Smith is the U.S. representative for Nebraska's 3rd congressional district, serving since 2007. After winning the Republican primary, he is seeking re-election to the seat in 2026. He previously served in the Nebraska State Legislature from 1999 to 2007. Smith has raised about $1.4 million for his campaign, and market data implies roughly a 90% win probability.
94%
Win probability
market-implied
$1.4M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Smith's money comes from.
C−
35/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — small-dollar reliance is the weak spot.
2 watch items · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance0
0% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
74% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding57
43% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure84
$283k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
What Smith did in office.
MeasureYearAction
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 203 East 6th Street in Lexington, Neb
Became Public Law No: 118-241.
2024
Became law
Swanson and Hugh Butler Reservoirs Land Conveyances Act
Became Public Law No: 118-185.
2024
Became law
Employer Reporting Improvement Act
Became Public Law No: 118-168.
2023
Became law
Providing for the appointment of Antoinette Bush as a citizen regent of the Board of Regents of the Smithsonia
Became Public Law No: 118-29.
2023
Became law
Providing for the reappointment of Roger W. Ferguson as a citizen regent of the Board of Regents of the Smiths
Became Public Law No: 118-30.
2023
Became law
Providing for the reappointment of Michael Govan as a citizen regent of the Board of Regents of the Smithsonia
Became Public Law No: 118-28.
2023
Became law
To rename the Homestead National Monument of America near Beatrice, Nebraska, as the Homestead National Histor
Became Public Law No: 116-328.
2019
Became law
SPONSORED LEGISLATION VIA CONGRESS.GOV · ENACTED BILLS FIRST, THEN THE MOST RECENT · ROLE SHOWS THE BILL'S LATEST STATUS.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How Smith votes
With the party, against it, and where on the spectrum.
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Smith
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
75
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (HOUSE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 583 roll-calls · 119th Congress (House)
98%voted with Republicans · 2% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
1999Nebraska State Senator
1999–2007
2007United States representative
since 2007
2021Board member
2021–2025
—United States representative
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$1.4M
Raised
$1.2M
Spent
$1.2M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
0% small (<$200)26% large indiv.74% PAC
57% in-state · 43% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-04-22 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Smith and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES — OFFICE OF THE CLERK · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Republican · NE-3 U.S. House
Adrian Smith
Adrian Michael Smith is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Nebraska's 3rd congressional district since 2007. A member of the Republican Party, he represented the 48th district in the Nebraska Legislature from 1999 to 2007. Smith is the dean of Nebraska's congressional delegation since 2022 following Jeff Fortenberry's resignation.
94%
Win prob
$1.4M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-05Adrian Smith is the U.S. representative for Nebraska's 3rd congressional district, serving since 2007. After winning the Republican primary, he is seeking re-election to the seat in 2026. He previously served in the Nebraska State Legislature from 1999 to 2007. Smith has raised about $1.4 million for his campaign, and market data implies roughly a 90% win probability.
Governing & voting record
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 203 East 6th Street in Lexington, Neb
2024 · BECAME LAW
Swanson and Hugh Butler Reservoirs Land Conveyances Act
2024 · BECAME LAW
Employer Reporting Improvement Act
2023 · BECAME LAW
Providing for the appointment of Antoinette Bush as a citizen regent of the Board of Regents of the Smithsonia
2023 · BECAME LAW
Providing for the reappointment of Roger W. Ferguson as a citizen regent of the Board of Regents of the Smiths
2023 · BECAME LAW
Providing for the reappointment of Michael Govan as a citizen regent of the Board of Regents of the Smithsonia
2023 · BECAME LAW
To rename the Homestead National Monument of America near Beatrice, Nebraska, as the Homestead National Histor
2019 · BECAME LAW
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
1999Nebraska State Senator
1999–2007
2007United States representative
since 2007
2021Board member
2021–2025
—United States representative
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Smith's money comes from.
C−
35/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — small-dollar reliance is the weak spot.
2 watch items · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance0
0% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
74% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding57
43% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure84
$283k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How Smith votes
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Smith
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
75
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (HOUSE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 583 roll-calls · 119th Congress (House)
98%voted with Republicans · 2% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$1.4M
Raised
$1.2M
Spent
$1.2M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
0% small (<$200)26% large indiv.74% PAC
57% in-state · 43% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-04-22 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES — OFFICE OF THE CLERK · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)