Races · Senate · 2026 · NJ
Senate · class II · open seat
New Jersey Senate
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Lean D · model 89% D
lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +17.0
80% CI: R +0.5 → D +34.5 · win prob 89%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +11.7
80% CI R +25.1 → D +23.2
CV MAE 7.21
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +17.0
80% CI R +0.5 → D +34.5
CV MAE 13.66
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | Oct 14 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Aug 12 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | Aug 12 | — | +18.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll — last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi
In the news
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Cory Booker Rallies Birmingham Against Alabama Map Pushel-balad.com · 1d ago -
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Opinion : Supreme Court was right to protect donor privacy , a ...wilsontimes.com · 1d ago -
Your Kids Asked the Artemis Astronauts Questions . They Answered .nytimes.com · 1d ago -
17 - year - olds should be able to vote in the 2028 primary [ column ]lancasteronline.com · 1d ago - Airlines for America urges New Jersey lawmakers to oppose illegal tax hikeeturbonews.com · 1d ago
- Construction begins on Novarti RLT centre in Texas , USfinance.yahoo.com · 1d ago
- Latest Articlesfreerepublic.com · 1d ago
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Longtime Sonoma resident , Apollo astronaut Schweickart part of effort to safeguard American democracypressdemocrat.com · 2d ago - New York Moves to Ban Masks for ICE Agentsjdjournal.com · 2d ago
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