Joe Manchin vs Patrick Morrisey

Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2760 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2766 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2770 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2783 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2786 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2814 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2814 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Methodology not disclosed publicly; declined to participate in AAPOR Transparency Initiative. Included for transparency rather than weight-zeroing — many forecasters still include their polls — but the methodology opacity is worth surfacing. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Poll was fielded 2855 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 7 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2882 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2888 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.

Poll was fielded 2910 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2916 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2916 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2922 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Sample size of 1,591 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Sample size of 320 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.5pt — wider than typical.

Poll was fielded 3144 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Sample size of 320 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.5pt — wider than typical.

Poll was fielded 3144 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Sample size of 320 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.5pt — wider than typical.

Poll was fielded 3144 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3185 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3185 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 3661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.