| 11/3/2018 | Research Co. | 1.01 | —(D+1.5) | 450 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟡2745d old🔵bias D+1.5pt+1- 🟡
2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Leah Vukmir 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 604 | ±4.1 | unknown | 🟡2748d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Tammy Baldwin 53.0 · Leah Vukmir 44.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2018 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 1154 | ±3.2 | LV | 🟡2751d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Tammy Baldwin 54.0 · Leah Vukmir 43.0 | pollarch |
| 10/18/2018 | Ipsos | 1.00 | —(R+1.9) | 1193 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟡2761d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2761d old Poll was fielded 2761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Tammy Baldwin 54.0 · Leah Vukmir 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/11/2018 | Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | 1.00 | — | 816 | ±3.4 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2768d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2768d old Poll was fielded 2768 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Tammy Baldwin 52.0 · Leah Vukmir 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/7/2018 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 799 | ±3.9 | LV | 🟡2772d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2772d old Poll was fielded 2772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Tammy Baldwin 53.0 · Leah Vukmir 43.0 | pollarch |
| 10/3/2018 | Marist College | 1.00 | —(D+2.4) | 571 | ±4.8 | LV | 🟡bias D+2.4pt🟡2776d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. - 🟡
2776d old Poll was fielded 2776 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Tammy Baldwin 54.0 · Leah Vukmir 40.0 | pollarch |
| 9/24/2018 | Ipsos | 1.00 | —(R+1.9) | 1109 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟡2785d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2785d old Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Tammy Baldwin 52.0 · Leah Vukmir 39.0 | pollarch |
| 9/16/2018 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 614 | ±4.4 | LV | 🟡2793d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2793d old Poll was fielded 2793 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Tammy Baldwin 53.0 · Leah Vukmir 42.0 | pollarch |
| 8/24/2018 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡2816d old🔵bias D+0.1pt+1- 🟡
2816d old Poll was fielded 2816 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Leah Vukmir 42.0 | pollarch |
| 8/19/2018 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 601 | ±4.5 | LV | 🟡2821d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2821d old Poll was fielded 2821 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Leah Vukmir 47.0 | pollarch |
| 7/28/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 632 | ±4.2 | unknown | 🟡2843d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2843d old Poll was fielded 2843 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Leah Vukmir 36.0 | pollarch |
| 7/28/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 632 | ±4.2 | unknown | 🟡2843d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2843d old Poll was fielded 2843 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Kevin Nicholson 40.0 | pollarch |
| 7/19/2018 | Marist College | 1.00 | —(D+2.4) | 906 | ±3.8 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.4pt🟡2852d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. - 🟡
2852d old Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Tammy Baldwin 55.0 · Leah Vukmir 38.0 | pollarch |
| 7/19/2018 | Marist College | 1.00 | —(D+2.4) | 906 | ±3.8 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.4pt🟡2852d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. - 🟡
2852d old Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Tammy Baldwin 54.0 · Kevin Nicholson 39.0 | pollarch |
| 7/2/2018 | SurveyMonkey/Axios | 1.00 | — | 968 | ±4.5 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2869d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Tammy Baldwin 56.0 · Leah Vukmir 40.0 | pollarch |
| 7/2/2018 | SurveyMonkey/Axios | 1.00 | — | 968 | ±4.5 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2869d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Tammy Baldwin 55.0 · Kevin Nicholson 42.0 | pollarch |
| 6/17/2018 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 800 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡2884d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus- 🟡
2884d old Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
| Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Leah Vukmir 40.0 | pollarch |
| 6/17/2018 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 800 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡2884d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus- 🟡
2884d old Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
| Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Kevin Nicholson 39.0 | pollarch |
| 3/16/2018 | Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | 1.00 | — | 910 | ±3.3 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2977d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2977d old Poll was fielded 2977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Leah Vukmir 39.0 | pollarch |
| 3/16/2018 | Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | 1.00 | — | 910 | ±3.3 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2977d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2977d old Poll was fielded 2977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Kevin Nicholson 38.0 | pollarch |
| 3/5/2018 | SurveyMonkey/Axios | 1.00 | — | 1668 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2988d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2988d old Poll was fielded 2988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
n=1,668 Sample size of 1,668 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Tammy Baldwin 49.0 | pollarch |
| 2/10/2017 | Magellan Strategies | 0.94 | neutral(R+0.3) | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡3376d old- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
3376d old Poll was fielded 3376 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · David Clarke 35.0 | pollarch |
| 2/10/2017 | Magellan Strategies | 0.94 | neutral(R+0.3) | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡3376d old- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
3376d old Poll was fielded 3376 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Sean Duffy 36.0 | pollarch |