Debbie Stabenow vs John James

Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Sample size of 1,817 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.

Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.

Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.

Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2754 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2755 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2757 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

Aggregation weight is 3.77 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Sample size of 169 respondents implies a margin of error around ±7.5pt — wider than typical.

Poll was fielded 2757 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.

Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2795 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2800 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2802 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.

Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2826 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2826 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

Aggregation weight is 3.77 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.

Poll was fielded 2850 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2850 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.

Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.

Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Sample size of 2,012 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Poll was fielded 3033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 3033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3143 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 3155 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3156 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Methodology not disclosed publicly; declined to participate in AAPOR Transparency Initiative. Included for transparency rather than weight-zeroing — many forecasters still include their polls — but the methodology opacity is worth surfacing. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Poll was fielded 3209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 7 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.