Races · Senate · 2018 · ME

Senate · class II · open seat

Zak Ringelstein vs Eric Brakey

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Tilt D — · 7 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2750d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 7 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 7 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:7 of 7 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/29/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	883	±3.5	unknown	2750d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Angus King 50.0 · Eric Brakey 37.0 · Zak Ringelstein 6.0	poll arch
10/16/2018	Critical Insights (R-Brakey)	1.00	—	600	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2763d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2763d old Poll was fielded 2763 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Angus King 41.0 · Eric Brakey 27.0 · Zak Ringelstein 7.0	poll arch
10/7/2018	Pan Atlantic Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2772d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2772d old Poll was fielded 2772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Angus King 57.0 · Eric Brakey 30.0 · Zak Ringelstein 8.0	poll arch
9/30/2018	Self-Made Insights (R-Brakey)	1.00	—	750	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls2779d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2779d old Poll was fielded 2779 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Angus King 47.0 · Eric Brakey 36.0 · Zak Ringelstein 8.0	poll arch
8/6/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2834d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2834d old Poll was fielded 2834 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Angus King 52.0 · Eric Brakey 25.0 · Zak Ringelstein 9.0	poll arch
9/10/2016	Colby College/Boston Globe	1.00	—	779	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls3529d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3529d old Poll was fielded 3529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Boston Globe Commissioned by Boston Globe, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Angus King 59.0 · Paul LePage 37.0	poll arch
6/21/2016	University of New Hampshire	1.00	—(R+0.9)	467	±4.5	unknown	3610d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+1 3610d old Poll was fielded 3610 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.	Angus King 63.0 · Paul LePage 29.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 20 total

Zak Ringelstein (D)

20 endorsements · source

Elected officials (12)

Colleen Madigan — state representative [ 40 ]
Deane Rykerson — state representative [ 40 ]
Harlan Baker — former state representative [ 40 ]
Henry John Bear — state representative [ 40 ]
James Handy — state representative and former state senator [ 40 ]
John Patrick — former state senator [ 40 ]
Maine Women's Lobby — director of the Maine Women's Lobby and 2018 candidate for Governor [ 41 ]
Mark Dion — State Senator, gubernatorial candidate [ 40 ]
Mark Lawrence — state representative [ 40 ]
Michael Sylvester — state representative [ 40 ]
Richard Farnsworth — state representative [ 40 ]
[ 40 ] — Alley, state representative [ 40 ]

Other (8)

Cenk Uygur — co-founder of The Young Turks [ 42 ]
Democratic Socialists of America — [ 44 ]
Ringelstein — 70–80%
Veterans for Bernie Sanders — [ 49 ] [ 40 ]
[ 43 ] — Universal Healthcare [ 43 ] [ 40 ]
[ 45 ] — sible Lincoln County [ 45 ] [ 40 ]
[ 46 ] — Berniecrats Maine [ 46 ] [ 40 ]
[ 47 ] — cal Revolution [ 47 ] [ 40 ]

last poll 92 months ago (10/29/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt D via pvi