Races · Senate · 2018 · MA
Senate · class II · open seat

Elizabeth Warren vs Geoff Diehl

Likely D · 26 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2751d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 26 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 26 results

26 of 26 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/28/2018MassINC0.87(R+4.6)502±4.4unknown
3 scored polls2751d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2751d old
    Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 54.0 · Geoff Diehl 32.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 6.0pollarch
10/28/2018Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
2751d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 2751d old
    Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elizabeth Warren 56.0 · Geoff Diehl 34.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 4.0pollarch
10/27/2018Western New England University1.00402±5.0LV
no scored polls2752d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2752d old
    Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elizabeth Warren 57.0 · Geoff Diehl 27.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 7.0pollarch
10/7/2018UMass Lowell1.00485±5.6LV
no scored polls2772d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2772d old
    Poll was fielded 2772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elizabeth Warren 56.0 · Geoff Diehl 31.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 8.0pollarch
9/21/2018MassINC0.87(R+4.6)506±4.4unknown
3 scored polls2788d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2788d old
    Poll was fielded 2788 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 56.0 · Geoff Diehl 30.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 5.0pollarch
9/17/2018Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
2792d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 2792d old
    Poll was fielded 2792 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elizabeth Warren 54.0 · Geoff Diehl 24.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 6.0pollarch
6/12/2018Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
2889d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 2889d old
    Poll was fielded 2889 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elizabeth Warren 55.0 · Geoff Diehl 33.0pollarch
6/12/2018Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
2889d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 2889d old
    Poll was fielded 2889 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elizabeth Warren 56.0 · Beth Lindstrom 31.0pollarch
6/12/2018Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
2889d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 2889d old
    Poll was fielded 2889 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elizabeth Warren 54.0 · John Kingston 30.0pollarch
5/26/2018MassINC0.87(R+4.6)501±4.4unknown
3 scored polls2906d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2906d old
    Poll was fielded 2906 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 54.0 · Geoff Diehl 19.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 8.0pollarch
5/26/2018MassINC0.87(R+4.6)501±4.4unknown
3 scored polls2906d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2906d old
    Poll was fielded 2906 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 55.0 · Beth Lindstrom 19.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 7.0pollarch
5/26/2018MassINC0.87(R+4.6)501±4.4unknown
3 scored polls2906d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2906d old
    Poll was fielded 2906 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 56.0 · John Kingston 19.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 8.0pollarch
3/18/2018MassINC0.87(R+4.6)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls2975d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2975d old
    Poll was fielded 2975 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 55.0 · Geoff Diehl 20.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 9.0pollarch
3/18/2018MassINC0.87(R+4.6)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls2975d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2975d old
    Poll was fielded 2975 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 53.0 · Beth Lindstrom 19.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 9.0pollarch
3/18/2018MassINC0.87(R+4.6)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls2975d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2975d old
    Poll was fielded 2975 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 53.0 · John Kingston 19.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 7.0pollarch
11/12/2017MassINC0.87(R+4.6)503±4.4unknown
3 scored polls3101d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3101d old
    Poll was fielded 3101 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 58.0 · Geoff Diehl 32.0pollarch
11/12/2017MassINC0.87(R+4.6)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls3101d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3101d old
    Poll was fielded 3101 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 56.0 · Beth Lindstrom 33.0pollarch
11/12/2017MassINC0.87(R+4.6)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls3101d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3101d old
    Poll was fielded 3101 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 57.0 · John Kingston 33.0pollarch
11/12/2017MassINC0.87(R+4.6)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls3101d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3101d old
    Poll was fielded 3101 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 58.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 27.0pollarch
6/22/2017MassINC0.87(R+4.6)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls3244d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3244d old
    Poll was fielded 3244 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 60.0 · Geoff Diehl 29.0pollarch
6/22/2017MassINC0.87(R+4.6)504±4.4unknown
3 scored polls3244d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3244d old
    Poll was fielded 3244 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 61.0 · Shiva Ayyadurai 25.0pollarch
10/26/2016Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
3483d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 3483d old
    Poll was fielded 3483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elizabeth Warren 58.0 · Curt Schilling 24.0pollarch
9/20/2016UMass Amherst1.00450±4.1unknown
no scored polls3519d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3519d old
    Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Elizabeth Warren 40.0 · Karyn Polito 36.0pollarch
9/20/2016UMass Amherst1.00450±4.1unknown
no scored polls3519d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3519d old
    Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Elizabeth Warren 47.0 · Curt Schilling 28.0pollarch
9/20/2016UMass Amherst1.00450±4.1unknown
no scored polls3519d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3519d old
    Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Elizabeth Warren 40.0 · William Weld 37.0pollarch
9/10/2016MassINC0.87(R+4.6)506±4.4unknown
3 scored polls3529d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3529d old
    Poll was fielded 3529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Elizabeth Warren 54.0 · Curt Schilling 29.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Sep 28 +18.0
Inside Elections Safe D Sep 29 +18.0
RealClearPolitics Safe D May 26 +18.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Sep 27 +18.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/28/2018) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi